1. Presentation of CSLI Fall 2009 Survey Findings + Annapolis Election Musings Dan Nataf Ph.D. Director Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College 101 College Parkway Arnold, MD 21012-1895 http:www2.aacc.edu/csli ddnataf@aacc.edu 410.777.2733

2. County – Right/Wrong Direction: Spring ‘99 to Fall ‘09

3. Findings – Most Important Problem Fall 2003-Fall 2009

4. The economy…rate economic conditions How would you rate economic conditions in… excellent, good, only fair or poor?

5. The economy…compare AAC/USA excellent+good

6. The economy…does this apply?

7. Confidence in federal govt. 2008/2009

8. “Very” plus “somewhat confident” by party, 2009/08

9. When will the economy improve? Economic ConditionThis year Next year Future year Median year N.A. A stabilization of housing values8355120127 A return to steady growth of the economy5325920125 A major reduction in the unemployment rate 4316120124 A return to a better balance between revenues and expenditures for state and local government budgets 31668201413 A return to a better balance between revenues and expenditures for the federal government’s budget 31073201514

10. Perceptions of 2020

11. Perceptions of 2020: Health Care by Ideology and Party Health Care Quality/Access

12. Budget Issues: Are Cuts “about right,” “too big” or “too small” Budget cutting measure About right Too big Too small N.A. The governor’s policy of making state employees take three to 10 days of unpaid leave 513776 Laying off 200 state employees384579 The proposal to cut $210 million in state aid to localities in Maryland 3241819 The proposal to cut $15 million in local aid to Anne Arundel County 3147913 Cutting a combined $30 million in health- related funding 2360611

13. Budget Issues: Support or Oppose various Proposals” SupportOpposeUnsure N.A. Maintaining the tuition freeze at the University of Maryland 791551 Maintaining the level of state funding for public schools 781741 Requiring school employees to take several unpaid days off 365941 Shifting the cost of teachers’ pensions to local governments 2458154

14. Budget Issues: Party and Ideology AllDemRepInd.D-R Maintaining the tuition freeze at the University of Maryland79 850 Maintaining the level of state funding for public schools788176775 Requiring school employees to take several unpaid days off363936303 Shifting the cost of teachers’ pensions to local governments24232820-5 AllDemRepInd.D-R The governor’s policy of making state employees take three to 10 days of unpaid leave 515550475 Laying off 200 state employees 38374046-3 The proposal to cut $210 million in state aid to localities in Maryland 32293936-10 The proposal to cut $15 million in local aid to Anne Arundel County 31303627-6 Cutting a combined $30 million in health-related funding 23173028-13 O’Malley doing poor job % Ideology Conservative55 Moderate33 Liberal10 Conservative-Liberal45 Party Democrat21 Republican62 Independent38 Democrat-Republican-41 % saying “support” % saying “about right” O’Malley’s job balancing budget Good=13%; Okay=42%; Poor=38%

15. Problems facing federal government: What concerns you the most by party Main problem… OverallDemRepIndep.D-R Deficit/Debt107157-8 Budget/Overspending85118-6 Defense/Homeland Sec./Terrorism4270-5 Economy21202217-2 Unemployment43380 Taxes2233 Wars in Afghan/Iraq9124158 Health care182015195 Environment/Climate change23003 Education13003

16. : National Issues: Presidential job approval Bush Obama

17. : National Issues: % approving of president’s job by party

18. Annapolis Mayoral Election: A “change” election Major issues 1.Leadership style and competency 2.Everything else Leadership style and competency 1. Retrospective voting punish incumbents a. Punish incumbents * Individuals associated with incumbent * Incumbent party Presents a defensive challenge to all Democrats Major concern over ‘city manager’ issue Ties to Ellen Moyer Ties to “Democratic party machine”

19. Annapolis Mayoral Election: A “change” election Problems posed to Democratic party/Josh Cohen *Confusing election process/divided Democratic electorate 1.Plurality winner - Zina Pierre – was against ‘city manager’ – withdrew due to background issues, managing $ - process alienates black Democratic electorate! *Can Cohen win back black vote? 2.Josh Cohen and Trudi McFall divide white vote; McFall endorses Republican candidate… * Can Cohen win back McFall vote? 3.City manager issue prominent divide between Cohen/McFall/Other Democratic council candidates *Cohen most associated with Moyer – ‘change’ election without city manager – not good combo!

20. Annapolis Mayoral Election: A “change” election Problems posed to Republican party/David Cordle 1.Candidate is 8 year veteran of council – could share blame for problems facing city – not ‘enough change.’ 2.Recent convert to city manager position – perceived as too opportunistic? 3. Faces 2 to 1 D/R disparity in registered voters 4.Must depend on ‘independent’ voters and defecting Dems to win. 5.Faced with Chris Fox – crypto-libertarian likely to take many more voters from Cordle than Cohen.

21. Annapolis Mayoral Election: A “change” election Possible scenarios 1.Change momentum proves dominant – strong anti- incumbent feeling pushes Republican and independent voters to vote for Fox, black voters stay home, Fox beats Cordle and Cohen by a hair. 2.Change momentum proves strong but ‘with experience’ Republican voters strongly line up behind Cordle, Fox loses badly due to inexperience; Cohen comes in second due to lack of enthusiasm among Democratic voters 3.Change momentum overcome by party loyalty – Cohen rallies black Democrats, McFall Democrats reluctantly back Cohen, fiscally conservative /pro-business Republicans split between Cordle and Fox, independents split evenly

22. Rep 2 Dem 1 Dem 3 Dem 4 Dem 6 Dem 7 Dem 8 Rep 5 Facts from 2005 Total reg. voters: 23464 Votes cast: 7893 Turnout: 33.6% Moyer 3612, Renaut 2850 Kelley 1404 Ward 1: Dem 800 Rep 565 +265 Ward 2: Dem 652 Rep 696 +44 Ward 3: Dem 487 Other 166 (Write in –Scott Bowling) +321 Ward 4: Dem 436 Rep 163 +273 Ward 5: Dem 266 Rep 554 +288 Ward 6: Dem 255 Unaffil 357 +102 Ward 7: Dem 549 Rep 471 +78 Ward 8: Dem 976 Rep 309 +667 Rep 5