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©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; analyses based on properties & portfolios $10 million and greater. March 31, 2009 ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $5 million and greater. Robert M. White Jr., CRE, FRICS Capital Markets and Valuation: Current Transactions and Valuation Implications for Buyers, Sellers, Lenders, & Borrowers
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©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; analyses based on properties & portfolios $10 million and greater. Glimpse into 2009 listed for sale $22.7b foreclosure initiated $11.6b foreclosure concluded $1.7b reported closed/sold $5.6b reported in contract $2.4b contract terminated $3.0b + - January-February 2009
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©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; analyses based on properties & portfolios $10 million and greater. $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 J '06 FMAMJJASONDJ '07 FMAMJJASONDJ '08 FMAMJJASOND Billions -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% J '06 FMAMJJASONDJ '07 FMAMJJASONDJ '08 FMAMJJASOND J '09 Year-Over-Year Change in Commercial Property Sales Monthly US Commercial Property Sales Two Shocks to Market Financial Crisis Recession Credit Crunch F J '09 F
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©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; analyses based on properties & portfolios $10 million and greater. Sales Rare, But Offerings Plentiful
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©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; analyses based on properties & portfolios $10 million and greater. Moody/Real CPPI – National, All Properties, Monthly US Commercial Property Prices Pricing Trends 21% from peak ~’05 levels [Prior to Wave of Distressed Sales]
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©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; analyses based on properties & portfolios $10 million and greater. CMBS AAA 39% of par 14.14% yield Bricks or Paper? An Investors Dilemma
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©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; analyses based on properties & portfolios $10 million and greater. When In Doubt, Use A Ten Cap Historic Distribution of US Cap Rates
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©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; analyses based on properties & portfolios $10 million and greater. Summary of Current Distress By Property Type As of 3/20/09
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©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; analyses based on properties & portfolios $10 million and greater. Summary of Current Distress
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©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; analyses based on properties & portfolios $10 million and greater. Debt Capital – No Replacements in Sight
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©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; analyses based on properties & portfolios $10 million and greater. Composition of Sellers Equity Capital Composition of Buyers
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©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; analyses based on properties & portfolios $10 million and greater. Capitulation? market peak credit crunch crisis Percent of Asking Price Achieved By Seller Type
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