1. Eco-Region NW: Sustainable Construction CCINW, Manchester, September 6, 2005 Alastair Moore University of Manchester Centre for Urban & Regional Ecology

2. Order of things... Project overview Ecological footprint Scenario modelling tool Case study: construction Conclusions & Questions

3. Eco-Region North West

4. Energy & water Goods & services Renewable resources Non-renewable resources Resource depletion Air, water, waste Goods & services OUTPUTS Future impacts Land & environmental capacity INPUTS Informatio n & capital People CITIES & REGIONS as MATERIAL PROCESSORS

5. OBJECTIVES  Databasing: comprehensive data system on regional resource and waste flows  Modelling: integrated model to analyse future trends and scenarios  Benchmarking: reporting system for waste minimization and resource productivity  Business applications: apply the model / database system to the construction industry  Policy & public applications: use the database / modelling system to analyse regional policy

6. Indicators: Can be applied to regional economy: or SIC sectors, or products (e.g. house) Ecological impacts: ecological footprint (EF) Climate change: carbon intensity Resource efficiency: resource inputs / resource outputs Resource sufficiency: domestic production / domestic consumption Resource productivity: GVA in production per unit MFA Res.effectiveness: primary inputs / final consumption after waste

7. Ecological Footprint Estimate of a population's consumption of food, materials and energy in terms of the area of biologically productive land or sea required to produce those natural resources gha: A global hectare is one hectare of biologically productive space with world-average productivity 2002, biosphere had 11.4 billion hectares of biologically productive space (approx one quarter of the planet's surface) Includes 2.0 billion hectares of ocean and 9.4 billion hectares of land. 1 global hectare is a hectare representing the average capacity of one of these 11.4 billion hectares. Global hectares allow the meaningful comparison of the ecological footprints of different countries, regions, LAs, which use different qualities and mixes of cropland, grazing land, and forest When all global hectares of bioprucdtive land and sea are divided by the total global population, we end up with our fair earth share - 1.8 gha.

8. Construction sector: case study

9. Drivers? UK Gov’t Sustainable Development Strategy UK SCP Sustainable Communities Prescott’s £60K house Kyoto and UK GHG targets Aggregate levy Landfill levy SEA SA Competitiveness Current NW footprint 6.2 gha/cap vs ‘fair earth share of 1.8 gha/cap

10. Overall picture

12. Scenario modelling framework Housing stock, flow model Spreadsheet-model linked to REAP and others Baselines or exg stock, growth, clearances HH energy demand scenarios Housing construction (MFA, EF, C02)

13. Ecological footprint of construction 0.63 gha/cap household energy demand (~10% of total EF) 0.3-0.6 gha/cap for construction activities How to reduce the EF of housing by factor of 4 (i.e. ~0.16 gha/cap for energy demand & 0.08-0.15 for construction)?

14. To build new.... or not to build new? This is the question (sort of) ~15-18,000 new houses constructed per year (RSS) Opportunity for energy efficiency gains & lower EF Has considerable construction EF to annualize ~13,000 additional houses per year, net of clearances ~3-5,000 homes cleared (demolished) per year Reduces EF of poor quality exg stock Replacement houses have construction EF to annualize New homes have lower operating EF Should no. of new more efficient houses be increased, or should we retrofit existing stock? Could retrofit some or all of 3-5,000 homes slated for clearing

15. Construction phase

16. How ‘heavy’ is a house, and what is it’s ecological impact? EA c o d e 123 code TOTAL Ecological Footprint per tonne (=direct + indirect) EF EF gha/tonnet/housegha 77 Other mining and quarrying 0.009 137.56 1.17 3451 Structural clay products 0.076 19.60 1.48 3552 Cement, lime and plaster 0.176 15.03 2.65 3653 Articles of concrete, stone etc 0.028 105.78 2.99 1331 Wood and wood products 1.523 7.82 11.90 2542 Paints, varnishes, printing ink etc 0.615 0.69 0.43 3047 Rubber products 1.305 0.11 0.14 3148 Plastic products 1.262 2.10 2.65 3249 Glass and glass products 0.306 0.99 0.30 3350 Ceramic goods 0.283 0.76 0.21 3754 Iron and steel 0.727 2.52 1.83 4157-61 Structural metal products 1.433 2.00 2.86 4470-72 Electric motors and generators etc 0.537 0.94 0.50 Total 150 + 137 29.1

17. MFA (standard vs eco) STANDARD gha/tonne EF-standard (gha) ECO-TYPE gha/tonne EF-eco-type (gha ) CEMENT 11.523 0.176 2.028 1.163 0.176 0.205 BRICK 6.343 0.076 0.482 0.423 0.076 0.032 LIME 0.079 0.176 0.014 0.226 0.176 0.040 STEEL 0.162 0.727 0.118 PVC WINDOWS 0.348 1.262 0.439 TIMBER - - 3.177 1.523 4.838 INSULATION (rock) 0.399 0.009 0.004 INSULATION (polystyrene) 0.272 1.262 0.343 INSULATION (cellulose) - 0.513 1.523 0.781 CER.TILES 0.401 0.283 0.113 0.401 0.283 0.113 CLAY TILES - 2.789 0.076 0.211 AGGREGATE - 3.541 6.220

18. House construction EF Total EF embodied in construction materials required to build typical house in the NW is 29 gha REAP tells us another 13 gha per house is due to the activities of actually assembling all these materials into a house Total EF of constructing a dwelling is 0.3 gha/cap/yr (assuming 60 yr lifespan) or 0.6 if 30 years is used (assuming closer comparability with operational costs) Total EF / cap from construction 2005201020252050 60 yr operational life 0.3 30 yr operational life 0.6

19. Household energy damand: A series of potential policy options

20. combined option - no retrofit; add 12K Ecohomes Excellent existing stock - 1/3 replaced by 2050 2900 286427582591 new stock at increased rate 16k /yr 1680320 720 total stock: exg + new 290029443078 3311 energy EF in exg m.gha 4.34.30 energy EF in new: Ecohomes excellent m.gha 0.040.150.34 total EF from HH energy demand 1000 gha 4.304.344.454.64 total EF / cap from HH energy demand 0.63 0.64

21. combined option - 40% house retrofit; add 12K Ecohomes Excellent 2900 288528402766 new stock at increased rate 12k /yr 1260240 540 total stock: exg + new 290029453080 3306 exg dwelling efficiency:40% house gha per dw 1.481.411.19 0.82 energy EF in exg: 40% house m.gha 4.34.063.37 2.26 energy EF in new: Ecohomes excellent m.gha 0.030.11 0.34 total EF from HH energy demand 1000 gha 4.304.093.48 2.60 total EF / cap from HH energy demand 0.630.590.49 0.36

22. Results (build & operate) Policy options total EF / cap from HH energy demand 2005201020252050 single policy: add 18K annually 0.630.650.680.69 combined option - no retrofit; add 12K Ecohomes Excellent 0.63 0.64 combined option - no retrofit; add 12K BedZED 0.63 0.620.61 combined option - 40% house retrofit; add 12K Ecohomes Excellent 0.630.590.490.36 combined option - retrofit to 40% house std ovr 30 yrs; add 9K BedZED 0.630.590.490.34 combined option - 40% house with 30% (31K) replacement; BedZED 0.630.570.420.25 combined option - 40% house with 50% (42K) replacement; BedZED 0.630.550.380.20 Total EF / cap from construction 60 yr operational life 0.3 30 yr operational life 0.6

23. Questions Is the EF the best metric to measure resource efficiency? How do we annualize the EF of construction to ensure comparability between new build and retrofitting? Footprint calculations are an underestimate of our global impacts, and they rely on national and regional level data. Does this make the EF measure too simplistic? Is the EF’s accuracy sufficient to allow us to act on what the footprint is showing us now?

24. Conclusions Retrofitting may deserve a closer look. Few key assumptions, but EF, CO2 and material intensity results are comparable. Start of a universal indicator of ecological impact of consumption. Data is generally standardized and available yearly; hence updatable More data will yield better resolution.

25. Alastair Moore Research Associate Centre for Urban & Regional Ecology University of Manchester Alastair.moore@manchester.ac.uk

26. CO2 emissions from construction of typical UK house EA c o d e 123 code TOTAL Co2 for different building materials tonnes materials per house Total CO2 per house T CO2/tonne 77 Other mining and quarrying 0.019 137.56 2.58 3451 Structural clay products 0.188 19.60 3.68 3552 Cement, lime and plaster 0.671 15.03 10.09 3653 Articles of concrete, stone etc 0.076 105.78 8.03 1331 Wood and wood products 0.674 7.82 5.27 2542 Paints, varnishes, printing ink etc 0.506 0.69 0.35 3047 Rubber products 1.131 0.11 0.12 3148 Plastic products 1.285 2.10 2.70 3249 Glass and glass products 1.739 0.99 1.73 3350 Ceramic goods 1.950 0.76 1.47 3754 Iron and steel 4.061 2.52 10.25 4157-61 Structural metal products 6.805 2.00 13.60 4470-72 Electric motors and generators etc 1.371 0.94 1.29 Total 61.168

27. combined option - 40% house with 30% replacement existing stock - 1/3 replaced by 2050 2900 277224201931 new stock at increased rate 31k /yr 31155620 1395 total stock: exg + new 290029273040 3326 exg dwelling efficiency gha per dw 1.481.411.19 0.82 energy EF in exg gha 4.33.902.87 1.57 new dwelling efficiency BedZed2 gha per dw 0.16 energy EF in new gha/cap 0.020.10 0.22 total EF from HH energy demand 1000 gha 4.303.932.97 1.80 total EF / cap from HH energy demand 0.630.570.42 0.25

28. combined option - 40% house with 50% replacement existing stock - 1/2 replaced by 2050 2900 268221221436 new stock at increased rate 42k /yr 42210840 1890 total stock: exg + new 290028922962 3326 exg dwelling efficiency gha per dw 1.481.411.19 0.82 energy EF in exg gha 4.33.782.52 1.17 new dwelling efficiency BedZed2 gha per dw 0.16 energy EF in new gha/cap 0.030.13 0.30 total EF from HH energy demand 1000 gha 4.303.812.65 1.47 total EF / cap from HH energy demand 0.630.550.38 0.20

29. combined option - retrofit to 40% house std ovr 30 yrs; add 9K BedZED 2900 new stock at increased rate 9k /yr 945180 405 total stock: exg + new 290029453080 3305 exg dwelling efficiency:40% house gha per dw 1.481.411.19 0.82 energy EF in exg: 40% house m.gha 4.34.093.44 2.37 new dwelling efficiency BedZed2 gha per dw 0.16 energy EF in new gha/cap 0.010.03 0.06 total EF from HH energy demand 1000 gha 4.304.093.47 2.43 total EF / cap from HH energy demand 0.630.590.49 0.34

30. combined option - no retrofit; add 12K BedZED 2900 288528402766 new stock at increased rate 12k /yr 1260240 540 total stock: exg + new 290029453080 3306 exg dwelling efficiency:40% house gha per dw 1.481.411.19 0.82 energy EF in exg: 40% house m.gha 4.34.30 new dwelling efficiency BedZed2 gha per dw 0.16 energy EF in new gha/cap 0.010.04 0.09 total EF from HH energy demand 1000 gha 4.304.314.34 4.39 total EF / cap from HH energy demand 0.63 0.62 0.61

31. SUMMARY OF THE REGION all figures per capita unless otherwise stated units 200520102025 long range 2050 population 1000s 1000s 683068877031 7232 households (2004) 1000s 290330003110 3317 size of household p 2.352.302.26 2.17 EF 2005EF 2010EF 2025 long range EF 2050 EF / cap - central projection 6.26.557.73 10.19 total EF - central projection million.gha 42.3545.1254.36 73.69

32. Household food cons. Regional extraction Regional production Commercial food cons. Public food cons. Factors: transport & construction Exported production Production waste / emissions Exported extraction Imported extraction Imported production Primary mass balance Secondary mass balance Demand side mass balance Externaliti es mass balance Consumer waste / emissions Tertiary waste / em Secondary waste / emissions Primary waste / emissions

33. Eco-Region NW data framework National level Region al level Sectora l level Firm level Benchmarking ASSESS / ENWORKS 2a) Ecological footprint 2b) sectoral footprint ImpactsActivitiesProduction by sectors Consumption by factors Waste & emissions 5a) Sectoral model (REWARD) 5c) Production benchmarks 1) Mass balance model 3a) Regional waste balance 4b) consumption benchmarks 3b) Waste sector benchmarks 5b) Activity model (Atlas) 4a) Construction benchmarks upstreamdownstream REAP model: Application to Eco-Budget UK

34. LCA results

35. Energy Retrofits to Existing Buildings –Loft Insulation (100 – 200mm) –Cavity Wall Insulation –Draught Stripping –Double glazing with low ‘e’ glass –Floor insulation –Gas Central Heating Controls –Hot Water Tank Insulation –Hot Water Tank Thermostat –Primary Pipework Insulation –Condensing Boiler –10% renewables –Yield 38% CO2 reductions, or –5.48 tonnes to 3.62 tonnes CO2/year/dwelling –5580 tonnes/yr if applied to approx 3,000 dwellings slated for demolition –53% reduction in EF by 2050 assuming 30 year phase-in