2. MIoIR has 5 major research themes in which we are, or seek to be, world leaders: 1.Technology strategy and innovation management 2.Service and organisational innovation 3.Science and innovation policy – including as a strong pillar: Foresight 4.Innovation and sustainability 5.Innovation and economic development MIoIR brings together the strengths of PREST and CRIC

3. Analysis: Evolution of Foresight practice: past, present & future Research: Innovation & Systemic Foresight Methodology Development: New tools & techniques (e.g. Evolutionary Scenarios) Practice: Supra-national, national, regional & sectoral applications Capacity building: Education & Training (PhD, MSc courses & Exec. ed.) Publication: Foresight - The journal of future studies, strategic thinking & policy Innovation: Whats in the horizon? Scanning 3

4. 4 Increased financial, trade and investment flows Rapid and accelerating technological progress; ICTs, biotechnology, fuel cells, nanotechnologies New international regulations and standards on trade, quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights New systems to design, produce, distribute, and manage products and services Global value chains and production networks Other developments including globalisation, changes in demographic structures and in cultural practices, and environmental affairs

5. 5 Emerging small economies coming out of crises, mostly fragile Struggling to identify new drivers of long-term development Pressures to exploit new markets, partnerships and to generate progress to catch up with the more advanced economies Low technological base, and limited capacity to innovate and attract early stage financing for technology start-ups Need to utilise new policy making and prioritisation tools to reposition the region of the WBCs within the wider European and global context and to prepare for the global challenges successfully

6. Socio-Economic Development Democracy&Rule of Law Competiti- veness Macroecon -omic stability Fiscal reform Regulatory reform Sustainable developme nt Privatizatio n&restrctur ng Employmen t and cohesion Education and health ICT Good governance Fight against corruption Judicial reform Albania××××× ×× ××× Bosnia and Herzegovina ××× ×××× ×× Croatia×× ××××× UNMIK/ Kosovo × × ×××× ××× The FYR of Macedonia ×××× ×××××× Montenegro× × × Serbia××××××××××××

7. 7 The Europe 2020 puts forward three mutually reinforcing priorities: (i)Smart growth: developing an economy based on knowledge and innovation (ii)Sustainable growth: promoting a more resource efficient, greener and more competitive economy (iii)Inclusive growth: fostering a high-employment economy delivering social and territorial cohesion EU 2020 strategy should inform the regions own efforts at developing a shared, long-term vision for the future.

8. 8 Objectives and expected outcomes Support of Knowledge Based competitiveness in the context of globalization; changing demografic structures and cultural practices; and increased concerns for environmental affairs Achievement of good public governance, vibrant and innovative private sectors, solid infrastructure, educated population and affordable and fair social services, consistent with the EU targets Exploitation of the regions creative potentials and available resources by opening opportunities for sectoral development and thus increasing the role of the region in the EU and global economy

9. 9 Focus 1: Institutional strengthening and good governance Implementation of the rule of law Improved human rights Fight against corruption Increased security Focus 2: Competitive Western Balkans economies in the global marketplace Sound business and investment environment High employment Enhanced innovation capacity Identification of key regional competencies High-value added industry Single market Focus 3: Integrated and Cross-Sectoral Infrastructure Development Provision of regional infrastructure Focus 4: Building Knowledge-Based Societies Improved education systems (primary, secondary, higher, VET) Appropriate research and development policy Developed information society Culture and heritage

10. 10 Private sector and industry Civil society / general public National and regional governments Research, academia and higher education institutions Scientific diasporas Media for dissemination and other relevant stakeholders

11. 11 Anticipation and projections of long-term developments Interactive and participative methods of debate and analysis Forging new social networks Elaboration of strategic visions and priorities based on a shared sense of commitment Implications for present-day decisions and actions

12. 12 Information to understand complex interactions between products, services, users and other stakeholders in multiple contexts in which these products and services are used Intelligence through scanning to explore trends, drivers of change, weak signals, surprises and shocks, as well as persistent problems Imagination in a holistic innovation ecosystem by integrating Foresight, Creativity and Design Interaction with the systematic involvement of users / stakeholders in early development stages in an inclusive process with long-term perspective with and effective Implementation!

13. 13 Science & Ecology Technology & Economics Socioeconomics Politics & Values What is possible? What is desirable? What is feasible? Systemic Foresight

14. Systemic understanding –Creates shared understanding and mutual appreciation of issues at hand Systems synthesis and modelling –The input from scanning is synthesised into conceptual models of the situations involved in the real world Systemic analysis and Selection –Analyses the alternative models of the future and prioritises them, through intensive negotiations among system actors and stakeholders, to create an agreed model of the future System transformation –Establishes the relationship between the future and the present for a successful change programme Systemic action –Creates plans to inform present day decisions for immediate change to provide structural and behavioural transformations

15. 15 Actions TransformationSynthesis & Models Understanding Analysis & Selection Scanning Panels Conferences Bibliometrics / Data Mining Literature Review Interviews System Analysis Trends/Drivers Indicators Priority Lists Panels Conferences Impact Assessment R&D Planning Critical/Key Technologies Operational Planning Action Planning Gaming Panels Conferences Scenario Planning Wild Card Weak Signals Network Analysis Modelling / Simulation Agent Based Modelling SWOT Analysis Panels Conferences Multi Criteria Analysis Cross Impact Analysis Prioritisation / Delphi Benefit/Cost /Risk Analysis Scoring Voting/Rating Backcasting Panels Conferences Road Mapping Relevance Trees Logic Charts Strategic Planning Linear Programming Information Intelligence Imagination Inclusivity

16. 16 A set of product and process oriented benefits: Priority areas in socio-economic development (e.g. joint investment plans, joint financial schemas, harmonisation of policies, regional technological and economic platforms) Collaborative research projects in the areas of mutual interest – e.g. KBS and thus increased visibility and scientific excellence of the joint institutes A valuable forum for exchanging ideas between academia, industry and policy makers within the WBCs and with the EU A model for participatory bottom-up policy making, strengthening the innovation capacities in the region, building a shared vision in a creative process, towards a more socially responsible economy and industry Changing public perception towards knowledge and information technologies, increased innovation and improved services, improved legal framework

17. 17 ©J.Ravetz 2009

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