1. Brilliant Congratulations to ELSA’s Team Congratulations to ELSA’s Team Think of NIA when it comes to funding analyses of ELSA or ELSA in conjunction with HRS, SHARE, SAGE, etc. Think of NIA when it comes to funding analyses of ELSA or ELSA in conjunction with HRS, SHARE, SAGE, etc.

2. ELSA Wave 2 Richard Suzman ELSA London 2006 Behavioral and Social Research Program, NIA, NIH

4. Aging is Global and changing the world as we know it Expectations of life expectancy might be too low and Longer life expectancy needs to be paid for, in part by working longer Expectations of life expectancy might be too low and Longer life expectancy needs to be paid for, in part by working longer Realization of the macroeconomic effects of global aging is attracting attention. How will China's aging impact the USA and UK? Realization of the macroeconomic effects of global aging is attracting attention. How will China's aging impact the USA and UK? Contrary to expectations disability has declined in he USA, so aging is plastic Contrary to expectations disability has declined in he USA, so aging is plastic Reducing age-related disability should become a global priorities Reducing age-related disability should become a global priorities Research (biomedical, social and behavioral) is essential for reducing disability faster Research (biomedical, social and behavioral) is essential for reducing disability faster

5. Origins of ELSA HRS HRS Disability Decline –trends in OECD countries Disability Decline –trends in OECD countries Gruber Wise project on public pensions and labor force participation Gruber Wise project on public pensions and labor force participation Denver Summit Meeting of the G-7/8 Denver Summit Meeting of the G-7/8 Chance meeting -1997 Chance meeting -1997 Denver Communiqué and NIA’s funding of an NAS panel Denver Communiqué and NIA’s funding of an NAS panel NIA and NIH attitudes toward funding research outside the USA NIA and NIH attitudes toward funding research outside the USA

6. Number of Chronically Disabled Americans Age 65 and Over (In Millions) Source: National Long Term Care Survey 1982-1999 (Kenneth Manton, Ph.D.) March 2004 Total Population Age 65+ 26.9 Million Total Population Age 65+ 30.8 Million Total Population Age 65+ 33.1 Million Total Population Age 65+ 36.4 Million 6.4 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.3 198219841986198819901992199419961998 4 6 8 10 Based on declining disability rate since 1982 If disability rate did not change since 1982 2000 7.0 9.2 Projected 2004 9.9 7.3

7. Projections of Number of Disabled Americans Age 65 & Over (in millions) Source: National Long Term Care Survey 1982-1994 (Kenneth Manton, Ph.D.) Revised November 1999 22

8. Retirement Policy Shapes Retirement Behavior Percent Early Retirement Public Pension Percent Penalty for Continued Work 20406080100 30 40 50 60 US Sweden Canada Spain Germany UK France Holland Belgium Italy Gruber and Wise (2000), “Social Security and Retirement Around the World.”

9. NIA Sponsored NRC Report: Preparing for an Aging World Expert recommendations for: International research agenda International research agenda Comparable Data needed to implement that agenda Comparable Data needed to implement that agenda National Research Council (2001), “Preparing for an Aging World: the Case for Cross-National Research.”

10. Value of an International Research Agenda Differences in age structure across countries Differences in age structure across countries Countries are adapting with policy changes Countries are adapting with policy changes Provides natural experiments to analyze some NIA/BSR Areas of Emphasis Provides natural experiments to analyze some NIA/BSR Areas of Emphasis Increasing Health ExpectancyIncreasing Health Expectancy Health, Work, and RetirementHealth, Work, and Retirement Interventions and Behavior ChangeInterventions and Behavior Change Genetics, Behavior, and the Social EnvironmentGenetics, Behavior, and the Social Environment The Burden of Illness and the Efficiency of Health Systems.The Burden of Illness and the Efficiency of Health Systems.

11. Why Cross-national Research?  Macroeconomic challenges require microeconomic responses  Demographic and institutional variation make detection of causality easier  Need cross-nationally comparable data  SHARE: Ex ante harmonization…  …within Europe and with HRS  Balancing comparability and experimentation/individuality – NIA funding a network meeting to enhance coordination

12. NRC Panel Recommendations Creation of measures that are conceptually comparable across societies (harmonization) Creation of measures that are conceptually comparable across societies (harmonization) Database development that can support critical multidisciplinary research Database development that can support critical multidisciplinary research National Research Council (2001), “Preparing for an Aging World: the Case for Cross-National Research.” The NRC Panel Recommendations include:

13. BSR Data Development The Health and Retirement Study served as a template for similar studies in other countries. The Health and Retirement Study served as a template for similar studies in other countries. English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA)English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE)Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS)Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS) In the works: Israel, Ireland, the Czech Republic, Poland, Korea (KLOSA), China, and Japan.In the works: Israel, Ireland, the Czech Republic, Poland, Korea (KLOSA), China, and Japan. SAGE and INDEPTHSAGE and INDEPTH

14. Cross National Studies of Retirement and Health BSR supports several studies that examine work and retirement in a cross-national context: Wise P01 Wise P01 Kapteyn P01 Kapteyn P01 Murray P01 Murray P01

15. * * * Israel SE DK IE DE CHAT FR SP IT GR BE NL PL CZ UK A laboratory for cross-national social science & policy analysis USA SV Korea Japan

16. Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) Six countries from WHS (China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russian Federation & South Africa) Six countries from WHS (China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russian Federation & South Africa) Ten INDEPTH sites (6 with NIA funds, 4 with own funding) Ten INDEPTH sites (6 with NIA funds, 4 with own funding) Links to SHARE Links to SHARE Comparisons to data from MHAS, SABE, ELSA, HRS, other Comparisons to data from MHAS, SABE, ELSA, HRS, other

18. Evidence and Information for Policy - Global Study on Ageing SAGE and INDEPTH Mexico South Africa Ghana China India Russia Kenya Tanzania Bangladesh Viet Nam Indonesia

19. Observations on ELSA-2 NIA welcomes secondary data analytic grant proposals NIA welcomes secondary data analytic grant proposals Chronic conditions limiting ability to work – potential interventions to permit older workers to stay on the job longer Chronic conditions limiting ability to work – potential interventions to permit older workers to stay on the job longer Ending of compulsory retirement ages Ending of compulsory retirement ages Perceptions of ageing – epiphenomenon or causal -is there more than meets the eye? Perceptions of ageing – epiphenomenon or causal -is there more than meets the eye? Disability trends Disability trends Genetics Genetics Concerns re refusal rate Concerns re refusal rate Not only a database, but growing scientific community Not only a database, but growing scientific community