1. 09.22.11SUP-150Y PATHS OF DISCOVERY AND CONFIRMATION: THEORY, THEORY OF CHANGE AND RESEARCH DESIGN

2. THEORY OF CHANGE or LOGIC MODEL  Behind every program/intervention there is a theory Often not explicit Theory of change  One of your first tasks is to articulate the theory of change 09.22.11SUP-150Y

3. THINKING ABOUT THEORIES Interrelated assumptions, principles, and/or propositions and hypotheses to explain or guide the analysis.  A sequence of “if this, then this” statements  Working out the details of our underlying “theories” forces us to confront our assumptions Why do we think this intervention will have the intended outcome? What does this assume about the behaviors of individuals, groups or institutions? 09.22.11SUP-150Y

4. THEORY OF CHANGE FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE STATE WELFARE AGENCY If pregnant or parenting teens apply for public assistance, then Then, they very likely have needs that will be met less effectively by DTA programs than by programs oriented to serving children, youth and their families offered by DSS. If we refer them to DSS If they go to DSS, then they will be offered a place to live and supportive services. If they accept a residential placement, they will receive supports and services that improve their health, the health of their child, their parenting skills, and their job skills If they remain in the residential placement and accept the services offered, they will be more effective parents and more productive citizens, less likely to need public assistance in the future 09.22.11SUP-150Y

5. THEORY OF CHANGE FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE DEPARTMENT OF SOCIAL SERVICES If pregnant or parenting teens applying for public assistance enter a residential facility, then Then, DSS will provide services to the teen and her child If the teen participates in DSS provided services, then provide services, then… Then, the teen will establish a better relationship with the child’s father Then the baby will have a healthy birth Then the teen will be a more effective parent 09.22.11SUP-150Y

6. THE LOGIC MODEL FOR DSS  If we provide services: (INPUTS) 1.Familial atmosphere; structure & discipline; experienced staff; community volunteers; high quality facilities; transportation; culturally & linguistically appropriate services 2.Parenting instruction & practice, mentors, counseling, outreach to fathers, abortion & adoption counseling 3.Medical care, child care 4.Life skills instruction, structure to independence, aging out services, follow-up services 5.High School, job training, part- time work  Then teen residents will take advantage of them (PROCESS)  If teens take advantage of these services, then teens will (OUTPUTS/OUTCOMES) 1.Feel comfortable and actively participate 2.Become more effective parents and make mature decisions about child bearing and child spacing 3.Continue to be integrated with their families and their child’s father, where appropriate 4.Be physically healthy, emotionally stable and school ready, as will their children 5.Know and practice good life management skills 6.Graduate from high school and move toward economic self- sufficiency 09.22.11SUP-150Y

7. THEORIES OF CHANGE IN OTHER PAES  NYPD: ASSESSING THE EMPIRICAL EFFECTS OF A PILOT PROGRAM ON RECORDED INTERROGATIONS  UNDERSTANDING HOUSING IN BOSTON  DISMANTLING THE CRADLE TO PRISON PIPELINE 09.22.11SUP-150Y

8. HOW DO I MOVE FROM A THEORY OF CHANGE TO A RESEARCH DESIGN?  Begin by clarifying and operationalizing your research question What is the primary question? What are the sub-questions? (Secondary questions?) What information or data would I need to answer this question? These sub-questions? How and where will I find that information? How will I assess the reliability and validity of the information I find? Will I be able to answer this question and all the sub- questions given my skills, time limitations and resource limitations? 09.22.11SUP-150Y

9. THE POLICY ANALYSIS MODEL CONTRIBUTES TO IMPROVED ASSESSMENTS  Focuses our attention on the client’s question  Addresses the values question: What are the characteristics of the outcome we want? The processes we want?  What sources of information can we draw on?  How do we make decisions? What will we recommend? 09.22.11SUP-150Y

10. 09.22.11SUP-150Y BASIC PAE QUESTION TYPES  NEEDS ASSESSMENT  DESIGN A NEW PROGRAM OR DEVELOP A SOLUTION TO A KNOWN PROBLEM  IMPROVE THE PERFORMANCE OF A PROGRAM, AGENCY, ORGANIZATIONAL UNIT, ETC.  DESIGN OR CONDUCT AN EVALUATION OF A PROGRAM OR POLICY OPTION  DEVELOP A STRATEGIC PLAN FOR MORE EFFECTIVELY USING INSTITUTIONAL RESOURCES  DEVELOP A MARKETING/POLITICAL ADVOCACY CAMPAIGN  REPLICATE A PROGRAM, TAKE A PROGRAM TO SCALE  DESIGN A STRATEGY FOR MEASURING PROGRAM/AGENCY PERFORMANCE

11. POLICY ANALYSIS IS HARD  Even if you can: Identify good research questions; Gather good data; and Develop a process map of key steps  You still have to answer some difficult questions: Why do you think this outcome will happen? What does it assume about the behavior of:  Individuals?  Groups?  Institutions? 09.22.11SUP-150Y