1. Introduction General principles Today: quantitative theory; predictive capability Challenges for tomorrow Summary Nuclear Structure Theory: today and tomorrow Witek Nazarewicz (MSU/ORNL) ISOLDE Workshop 2014: 50 th Anniversary Edition ISOLDE, CERN, Dec. 15-17, 2014

2. TIMESCALE ➥ from QCD transition (color singlets formed; 10 ms after Big Bang) till today (13.8 billion years later) DISTANCE SCALE ➥ from 10 -15 m (proton’s radius) to 12 km (neutron star radius) The Nuclear Landscape and the Big Questions (NAS report) How did visible matter come into being and how does it evolve? (origin of nuclei and atoms) How does subatomic matter organize itself and what phenomena emerge? (self-organization) Are the fundamental interactions that are basic to the structure of matter fully understood? How can the knowledge and technological progress provided by nuclear physics best be used to benefit society?

3. A first rate theory predicts A second rate theory forbids A third rate theory explains after the facts Alexander I. Kitaigorodskii Characteristics of good theory: Predictive power Robust extrapolations Validation of data Short- and long-term guidance Characteristics of good theory: Predictive power Robust extrapolations Validation of data Short- and long-term guidance

4. The challenge and the prospect: physics of nuclei directly from QCD Resolution scale separation DFT collective models CI ab initio LQCD quark models Effective Field Theory

5. Theory of rare isotopes is demanding Great recent progress New ideas Data on exotic nuclei crucial o long isotopic chains o low-energy reaction thresholds o large neutron-to-proton asymmetries High performance computing o algorithmic developments o benchmarking and validation o uncertainty quantification o large-scale computations

6. dimension of the problem How to explain the nuclear landscape from the bottom up? Theory roadmap

7. Illustrative physics examples

8. The frontier: medium-mass nuclei Microscopic valence-space Shell Model Coupled Cluster Effective Interaction (valence cluster expansion) In-medium SRG Effective Interaction RIBF@RIKEN Steppenbeck et al Nature (2013) ISOLTRAP@CERN Wienholtz et al, Nature (2013) Jansen et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 113, 142502 (2014) Bogner et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 113, 142501 (2014)

9. Accurate nuclear interaction from chiral effective field theory for nuclei and nuclear matter A. Ekström et al, 2014 order-by-order optimization (here: NN and NNN in N2LO) few-body systems and light nuclei (2,3,4, ∞ is not a good idea!) Focus on low energies

10. Small and Large-Amplitude Collective Motion New-generation computational frameworks developed Time-dependent DFT and its extensions Adiabatic approaches rooted in Collective Schrödinger Equation Quasi-particle RPA Projection techniques Applied to HI fusion, fission, coexistence phenomena, collective strength, superfluid modes Spontaneous fission Heavy Ion fusion Shape coexistence Sadhukhan et al. Phys. Rev. C 88, 064314 (2013) Hinohara et al. Phys. Rev. C 84, 061302(R) (2011) Umar et al. Phys. Rev. C 81, 064607 (2010)

11. Ab initio calculations of ANCs and widths Di-neutron correlations in CS/GSM A suite of powerful approaches developed to open nuclear systems: Real-energy continuum shell model Complex-energy continuum shell model Ab-initio extensions Impact of open channels on structural properties Nollett, Phys. Rev. C 6, 044330 (2012) Papadimitriou et al. Phys. Rev. C 84, 051304 (2011)

12. nuclearmeson decay Rare Isotopes and fundamental symmetry tests Superallowed Fermi 0 + →0 +  -decays Atomic electric dipole moment ANL ISOLDE Jyväskylä Munich NSCL TAMU TRIUMF… Warsaw, Tennessee.. The violation of CP-symmetry is responsible for the fact that the Universe is dominated by matter over anti-matter Closely spaced parity doublet gives rise to enhanced electric dipole moment Large intrinsic Schiff moment 199 Hg (Seattle, 1980’s – present) 225 Ra (Starting at ANL and KVI) 223 Rn at TRIUMF Potential at FRIB (10 12 /s w ISOL target (far future); 10 10 initially

13. Prospects

14. Scientific method: our paradigm The theory-experiment cycle is repeated, continually testing and modifying the theory, until the theory describes experimental observations. Then the theory is considered a scientific law.

15. Experimental context: some thoughts… Beam time and cycles are difficult to get and expensive. Experiment keeps theory honest. Theory could help by being more involved in assessing the impact of planned runs and projects. What is the information content of measured observables? Are estimated errors of measured observables meaningful? What experimental data are crucial for better constraining current nuclear models? New technologies are essential for providing predictive capability, to estimate uncertainties, and to assess extrapolations Theoretical models are often applied to entirely new nuclear systems and conditions that are not accessible to experiment A paradigm shift is needed to enhance the coupling between theory and experiment

16. Quality control Uncertainty quantification “Remember that all models are wrong; the practical question is how wrong do they have to be to not be useful” (E.P. Box)

17. Example: Neutron-skin uncertainties of Skyrme EDF M. Kortelainen et al., Phys. Rev. C 88, 031305 (2013) but… …EFT framework is designed for model independence and systematic improvement of approximations. This has a potential of enriching the experiment-theory feedback

18. “There is generally significant variation among different calculations of the nuclear matrix elements for a given isotope. For consideration of future experiments and their projected sensitivity it would be very desirable to reduce the uncertainty in these nuclear matrix elements.” (Neutrinoless Double Beta Decay NSAC Report 2014) Current 0  predictions In contrast the study of neutrinoless double beta decay may shed light on the absolute mass scale. Neutrinoless double beta decay requires the neutrino to be its own anti- particle, i.e. the neutrino has to be a Majorana fermion.

19. Error estimates of theoretical models: a guide J Dobaczewski, W Nazarewicz and P-G Reinhard, J. Phys.G 41 074001 (2014) JPG Focus Issue on “Enhancing the interaction between nuclear experiment and theory through information and statistics” http://iopscience.iop.org/0954-3899/page/ISNET Around 35 papers (nuclear structure, reactions, nuclear astrophysics, medium energy physics, statistical methods…) "This Focus Issue draws from a range of topics within nuclear physics, from studies of individual nucleons to the heaviest of nuclei. The unifying theme, however, is to illustrate the extent to which uncertainty is a key quantity, and to showcase applications of the latest computational methodologies. It is our assertion that a paradigm shift is needed in nuclear physics to enhance the coupling between theory and experiment, and we hope that this collection of articles is a good start."

20. Future: large multi-institutional efforts involving strong coupling between physics, computer science, and applied math “High performance computing provides answers to questions that neither experiment nor analytic theory can address; hence, it becomes a third leg supporting the field of nuclear physics.” (NAC Decadal Study Report) High Performance Computing and Nuclear Theory

21. 12 C Electron Scattering Ground-state and Hoyle-state form factor Epelbaum et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 109, 252501 (2012). Lattice EFT Pieper et al., QMC

22. How many protons and neutrons can be bound in a nucleus? Skyrme-DFT: 6,900±500 syst The limits: Skyrme-DFT Benchmark 2012 288 ~3,000 Asymptotic freedom ? from B. Sherrill Erler et al, Nature (2012)

23. Hupin, Quaglioni, Navratil (2014) Microscopic reaction theory Near-term prospect: high-fidelity simulations with NN+NNN for composite projectiles and exotic nuclei Proton-recoil cross section [b/sr] Bacca et al. (2014)

24. Describe the lightest nuclei in terms of lattice QCD Develop first-principles framework for light, medium-mass nuclei, and nuclear matter from 0.1 to twice the saturation density Develop predictive and quantified nuclear energy density functional rooted in first- principles theory Unify the fields of nuclear structure and reactions: we must free ourselves from limitations imposed by (physical) boundary conditions Achieve a comprehensive description of direct, semi-direct, pre-equilibrium, and compound processes for a variety of reactions Provide the microscopic underpinning of observed, and new, (partial-) dynamical symmetries and simple patterns Develop predictive microscopic model of fusion and fission that will provide the missing data for astrophysics, nuclear security, and energy research Carry out predictive and quantified calculations of nuclear matrix elements for fundamental symmetry tests in nuclei and for neutrino physics. Explore the role of correlations and currents.  Develop and utilize tools of uncertainty quantification  Enhance the coupling between theory and experiment  Take the full advantage of high performance computing Summary (1): Challenges for LE Nuclear Theory

25. The nuclear many-body problem is very complex, computationally difficult, and interdisciplinary. With a fundamental picture of nuclei based on the correct microphysics, we can remove the empiricism inherent today, thereby giving us greater confidence in the science we deliver and predictions we make For reliable model-based extrapolations, we need to improve predictive capability by developing methods to quantify uncertainties We need a paradigm shift to optimize a theory-experiment loop New-generation computers will continue to provide unprecedented opportunities for nuclear theory Summary (2)

26. ... and Thank You!

27. BACKUP

28. 1teraflop=10 12 flops 1peta=10 15 flops (today) 1exa=10 18 flops (next 10 years) Tremendous opportunities for nuclear theory! Theoretical Tools and Connections to Computational Science 33.9 pflops November 2014

29. Quantified Nuclear Landscape (2) A.V. Afanasjev et al., Phys. Lett. B 726, 680 (2013)

30. Anomalous Long Lifetime of 14 C Dimension of matrix solved for 8 lowest states ~ 10 9 Solution took ~ 6 hours on 215,000 cores on Cray XT5 Jaguar at ORNL Determine the microscopic origin of the suppressed  -decay rate: 3N force Maris et al., PRL 106, 202502 (2011)

31. The covariance ellipsoid for the neutron skin R skin in 208 Pb and the radius of a 1.4M ⊙ neutron star. The mean values are: R(1.4M ⊙ )=12 km and R skin = 0.17 fm. From nuclei to neutron stars (a multiscale problem) Major uncertainty: density dependence of the symmetry energy. Depends on T=3/2 three-nucleon forces