1. Global Hazard Trends: Ever Increasing Risk? Today we will: Define the concepts of Frequency and Magnitude. Explore short and longer term trends in a range of hazard events. Consider issues regarding the reliability of hazard data.

2. Recap of Last Lesson: What is a chronic hazard? What is a context hazard? Is it fair for the developed countries to expect the developing countries to limit their greenhouse emissions? (10 marks) It is not fair because……..? It is fair because……..?

3. Where were the worst places in the world in 2007 for natural hazards? TASK: In pairs/small groups, list what you think are the 10 worst countries in 2007 for: A) Number of deaths due to natural hazards B) Total cost of natural hazards

4. The Answers: Number of deaths in 2007 1.Bangladesh 5635 2.India 2236 3.China 1161 4.Pakistan 911 5.N Korea 610 6.Peru 603 7.Indonesia 580 8.Hungary 500 9.USA 333 10.Vietnam 326 Economic cost 2007 (Billions) 1.Japan $13.8 2.UK $9.7 3.USA $9.4 4.China $8 5.Germany $5.5 6.Oman $3.9 7.Mexico $3.6 8.Bangladesh $2.4 9.Peru $2 10.Pakistan $1.9

5. Is the world more hazardous now? Look at the following graph from the EMDAT database to make your opinion. How might this be a little misleading?

6. Hazard Trends – Some Issues There are a number of issues in looking at hazard trends: –Defining a disaster – no official definition so figures vary. –Death counts vary due to long term effects. –Reporting of hazards varies due to availability of data, location, technology, political factors and media coverage. –Statistics are complex to collect and are collected by a range of bodies.

7. TASK: Use the key concept box on page 16 of the PA textbook to write your own definition of Magnitude and Frequency. Try not to simply copy this – use your own words. Frequency:- How often an event of a certain size (magnitude) occurs. Magnitude:- The size of an event e.g. force of a gale on the Beaufort scale or size of earthquake on Richter scale http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/latestfault.htm

8. Is the world becoming more hazardous? Use the graphs on pages 10 and 11 of the Oxford (black) textbook to complete the following TASKS: 1.Outline the trends in natural disasters – try to cover EVERY graph. 2.Suggest reasons why the number of disasters has increased but the number of deaths has fallen. 3.Why might have people affected and economic costs increased so much? 4.Describe the maps at the bottom of page 11 and suggest why Asia has the most deaths from natural disasters.

9. Deaths There is a decreasing number of deaths due to hazards- WHY? Better awareness of natural disasters (decreasing VULNERBILITY?) Better preparedness Better technology of prediction and rescue. (increasing CAPACITY TO COPE?) Unfortunately in the developing world this is not always the case

10. Economic Costs There is a decreasing number of deaths but an increase in economic effects. Since 1980, the average annual economic cost of hazards has risen from less than $20 bn to more than $160 bn. Majority of costs in developed countries

11. Independent Study (Homework) Complete the short multiple choice quiz using the QUIA website by the end of next week. http://www.quia.com/quiz/1469842.html Read pages 13-15 of your textbook ready for next lesson. Start to input hazards into your hazard log table (you have been emailed this). Use http://news.bbc.co.uk and www.emdat.be to find the information but also watch the news! http://news.bbc.co.ukwww.emdat.be