1. Internet Futures

2. Here I am channelling Anders Rockstrom of Telia Sonera, whose presentation at the.se event in October 2006 had a profound impact on me – he stated the truth so clearly and simply it was an irresistible message. More folk should hear what he has to say – so this is your opportunity! Ive made some changes to match whats been happening since 2006, but I think that the essential message remains the same – thanks Anders! Geoff

3. Internet Futures

4. purpose: share some musings about this industry and its future think about some of the major factors that will shape our future

5. why This industry has a rich history

6. why This industry has a rich history …of making poor guesses

7. why This industry has a rich history …of making poor guesses and being taken by surprise!

8. why This industry has a rich history …of making poor guesses and being taken by surprise! could we do a better job?

9. One approach: 1.Observe the situation and whats happening 2.Believe what we see 3.Understand where this may lead us and what options may be presented on the way

10. User forces on the Market From radio to tv to ? From telephony to chat to mashups to p2p to ?

11. Revenue Profile

12. How to fill the gap of the Internets revenue leak

13. Service Profile How to fill the gap of the Internets revenue leak

14. Service Profile How to fill the gap of the Internets revenue leak

15. Service Profile How to fill the gap of the Internets revenue leak

16. Service Profile How to fill the gap of the Internets revenue leak

25. Over the top apps

26. Over the top apps

27. Over the top apps Content is a commodity application that users do rather than a valuable service that is delivered by service providers

29. QoS Network VPNs IMS

30. QoS Network VPNs IMS

31. Web enabled user generated content facebook doppler youtube wikipedia QoS Network VPNs IMS

32. Web enabled user generated content QoS Network VPNs IMS facebook doppler youtube wikipedia

37. ngn ims

38. Infrastructure roles

39. fuelling the usage growth fire

40. usage = scaling

41. fuelling the usage growth fire bandwidth switching routing addressing usage = scaling storage delivering power heat dissipation memory speed silicon density storage efficiency Please send heaps more…. fibre routes

42. fuelling the usage growth fire bandwidth switching routing addressing usage = scaling storage delivering power heat dissipation memory speed silicon density storage efficiency But is bigger always cheaper ? Please send heaps more…. fibre routes

43. fuelling the usage growth fire bandwidth switching routing addressing usage = scaling storage delivering power heat dissipation memory speed silicon density storage efficiency But is bigger always cheaper ? and what happens when its not? Please send heaps more…. fibre routes

47. Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity Low margins No product differentiation Low barriers to entry Deregulation and competition Valued services are overlays to the network

48. Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity Low margins No product differentiation Low barriers to entry Deregulation and competition Traditional revenue streams are vaporizing Wired telephony Business data products Mobile telephony Local Access monopolies Valued services are overlays to the network

49. Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity Low margins No product differentiation Low barriers to entry Deregulation and competition Traditional revenue streams are vaporizing Wired telephony Business data products Mobile telephony Local Access monopolies Investors are getting very nervous about telcos Cost of capital is rising Shareholder returns need to stay high Consumers are fleeing legacy telcos in the face of price gouging No residual expertise left in-house Valued services are overlays to the network Business todays telco pressure points …

50. ? commodity utility network operation network high capacity packet pushing

51. ? commodity utility network operation User-centric applications, not network-centric services Value shift up the protocol stack network high capacity packet pushing

52. ? We are reinventing this industry on the fly Reinvention: new and different business models commodity utility network operation User-centric applications, not network-centric services Value shift up the protocol stack network high capacity packet pushing

53. thank you