1. Internet Futures

2. My Aim: share some thoughts about the Internet and its future think about some of the major factors that will shape our future +

3. Why? The mainstream telecommunications industry has a rich history

4. Why? The mainstream telecommunications industry has a rich history …of making very poor technology guesses

5. Why? The mainstream telecommunications industry has a rich history …of making very poor technology guesses and regularly being taken by surprise!

6. Can the Internet do a better job of matching technology to user needs?

7. One approach: 1. Observe the situation and whats happening

8. One approach: 1. Observe the situation and whats happening 3. Understand where this may lead us and what options may be presented on the way

9. One approach: 1. Observe the situation and whats happening 2. Believe what we see 3. Understand where this may lead us and what options may be presented on the way

10. Whats Happening Today: User Preferences and the Market for Services

11. From radio to tv to ?

12. Whats Happening Today: User Preferences and the Market for Services From radio to tv to ?

13. Whats Happening Today: User Preferences and the Market for Services From radio to tv to ? passive

14. Whats Happening Today: User Preferences and the Market for Services From radio to tv to ? From telephony to chat to mashups to p2p to ? passive

15. Service Profile Choices

16. Bundled services Open collaboration framework

17. Service Profile Choices Bundled services Open collaboration framework open delivery infrastructure vs Service / content distribution networks

18. Service Profile Choices Bundled services Open collaboration framework Vertical integration role specialization open delivery infrastructure vs Service / content distribution networks

19. Service Profile Choices Bundled services Open collaboration framework Vertical integration role specialization open delivery infrastructure vs Service / content distribution networks user produced vs externally produced

20. Service Profile Choices Bundled services Open collaboration framework Vertical integration role specialization Passive users Active user networks open delivery infrastructure vs Service / content distribution networks user produced vs externally produced

21. Whats Happening Today: User Preferences and the Market for Services From radio to tv to ? From telephony to chat to mashups to p2p to ? passive Today s users have already clearly demonstrated their preference for an active service profile based on sharing

22. Whats Happening Today: Demand for Bandwidth 1995 KbModem tails Mb Muxed Trunks What mass market customers want for $25 per month !

23. Whats Happening Today: Demand for Bandwidth 1995 2005 Kb Mb Modem tails Mb Muxed Trunks DSL tails Gb Lamda Trunks What mass market customers want for $25 per month !

24. Whats Happening Today: Demand for Bandwidth 1995 20052015 Kb Mb Gb Modem tails Mb Muxed Trunks DSL tails Gb Lamda Trunks fibre tails Bonded Tb Trunks? What mass market customers want for $25 per month ! What form of infrastructure investment profile can deliver this outcome in 7 years time?

25. Whats Happening Today: Declining Revenue Profile for incumbent telcos

26. How to fill the gap of the Internet s revenue leak?

27. ?

28. Moores Law technology pace rapid infill

29. Moores Law technology pace rapid infill

30. end user capability technology push and network architecture

31. Over the top applications

32. Content production is a commodity application that users sustain through sharing, rather than a valuable service that is produced externally through dedicated specialized production channels Over the top applications

33. and

34. QoS Network VPNs IMS and

35. QoS Network VPNs IMS and

36. Web 2.0 enabled user generated content QoS Network VPNs IMS facebook doppler youtube wikipedia google flickr and

37. tensions at the lower levels of the technology stack Users simply want applications to work Network operators often base their business model on driving complexity into the network So who really wants a simple end-to-end IP network? And who is willing to pay For it? IPv4 IPv4 NAT land IPv6 ?

38. fuelling the usage growth fire usage = scaling

39. fuelling the usage growth fire bandwidth switching routing addressing usage = scaling storage delivering power heat dissipation memory speed silicon density storage efficiency Please send heaps more …. fibre routes

40. is challenging when today s businesses appear to have radically different ideas of what this business is all about ?

41. and very few of these ideas will be right! ? is challenging when today s businesses appear to have radically different ideas of what this business is all about

42. And some of these ideas appear to be just plain wrong even now! ? and very few of these ideas will be right! is challenging when today s businesses appear to have radically different ideas of what this business is all about

43. And some of these ideas appear to be just plain wrong! ? and very few of these ideas will be right! is challenging when today s businesses appear to have radically different ideas of what this business is all about

44. triple play seamless networking ?

45. triple play seamless networking ?

46. triple play seamless networking ?

47. triple play seamless networking ?

48. Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity Low margins No product differentiation Low barriers to entry Deregulation and competition Valued services are overlays to the network ? What are we learning?

49. Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity Low margins No product differentiation Low barriers to entry Deregulation and competition Traditional revenue streams are vaporizing Wired telephony Business data products Mobile telephony Local Access monopolies Valued services are overlays to the network ? What are we learning?

50. Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity Low margins No product differentiation Low barriers to entry Deregulation and competition Traditional revenue streams are vaporizing Wired telephony Business data products Mobile telephony Local Access monopolies Investors are still nervous about telcos Cost of capital is high Shareholder returns need to stay high Consumers are fleeing legacy telcos in the face of price gouging No residual expertise left in-house Valued services are overlays to the network ? What are we learning?

51. ? Informed decision making about network infrastructure investment is the key to the next few years! Poor network investment choices will lead to business failures Those who are prepared to question the hype and construct their networks in a way that supports user needs will emerge as stronger ISP players

52. ? My personal view sees the following..

53. with different relationships new roles being defined ? My personal view sees the following..

54. ? commodity utility network operation high capacity packet pushing network My personal view sees the following..

55. ? commodity utility network operation User-centric applications, not network-centric services Value shift up the protocol stack high capacity packet pushing My personal view sees the following.. network

56. ? Reinvention: new and different business models commodity utility network operation User-centric applications, not network-centric services Value shift up the protocol stack network high capacity packet pushing My personal view sees the following.. opportunities will arise with

57. a closing thought … I m probably going to be proved wrong as much as I may be right with these thoughts. There is no certain track of progress here. Each shift of the Internet s use paradigm through innovation is as much a surprise to the innovator as it is to everyone else. Which is probably a very good thing!

58. Thank You! Geoff Huston gih@apnic.net