1. 1 Economic forest production with consideration of the forest- and energy- industries Presentation at the E.On Conference in Malmö, Sweden, 2008-10-30 Peter Lohmander Professor of Forest Management and Economic Optimization SLU, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Umea, Sweden http://www.Lohmander.com

2. 2 Structure of the presentation: #01. Objectives #02. Key questions #03. Recent developments in the world #04. The present state #05. Forests, CO2, CCS and risk management #06. The forest harvest level and industrial expansion #07. Integrated regional study and risk management #08. Conclusions and plans for the future #09. Thanks to E.On #10. References

3. 3 #01. Objectives To describe the analyzed system. To describe the most important problems. To describe and motivate selected solution approaches and obtained results. To serve as a starting point in an extended discussion of important problems, solutions approaches and future cooperation.

4. 4 #02. Key questions How should we define the system to be analyzed? Spatial definition? Time horizon? Included organizations? Uncertainty, risk or certainty? Objective function? How should we manage the analyzed system in order to optimize the total result?

5. 5 #03. Recent developments in the world

6. 6 Recent developments in the world with very strong impacts on the key questions A. The Financial Crisis: –Extreme risk and uncertainty in the general global economic system. B. The Global Warming: -The CO2 emission level has become the dominating environmental concern in the world. C. The CCS Technology: - Extremely promising method that can handle the global warming problem. Strong support from E.C., British Gov. and several large energy coorporations.

7. 7 #04. The present state

8. 8 Sweden is a country that is dominated by the forests.

9. 9 The Initial Physical State The information from the Swedish Board of Forestry (Yearbook of Forest Statistics and Internet) clearly shows that the stock of wood in the Swedish forest has increased very much since 1920. This is true for pine, spruce and birch. Source: The Swedish Board of Forestry 2007-10-26: http://www.svo.se/episerver4/templates/SFileListing. aspx?id=16583

10. 10

11. 11 Source: www.svo.se 2008-01-02www.svo.se

12. 12 Age distribution in the county of Gävleborg (2001-2005). Thousands of hectares in different age classes (years).

13. 13 From the forest to the energy plants and forest industry mills

14. 14 A harvester

15. 15 A forwarder

16. 16 A harvester in action

17. 17 After harvesting and before forwarding

18. 18

19. 19 GROT prepared for energy production

20. 20 A liner mill consuming wood of low dimensions. SCA.

21. 21 A saw mill consuming wood of larger dimensions and ”high quality”. SCA.

22. 22 A flexible combined heat and power plant consuming wood, GROT, peat and other raw materials. E.ON Sweden.

23. 23 Energy in Sweden Bioenergy in Sweden Biomass flows in Sweden Distribution of the forest harvest with respect to forest industry, energi industry, stock level changes and others

24. 24 Total Energy Supply, Sweden (2006) Bio Energy incl. Peat, 116 TWh Nuclear Power, 194 TWh Oil, 201 TWh Hydro Energy, 62 TWh

25. 25

26. 26 Source: Swedish Energy Agency: "Energy in Sweden, Facts and Figures 2005"

27. 27 Source: Swedish Energy Agency: "Energy in Sweden, Facts and Figures 2005"

28. 28 Source: Swedish Energy Agency: "Energy in Sweden, Facts and Figures 2005"

29. 29 http://www.svo.se/episerver4/dokument/sks/Statist ik/dokumenten/Produktion/Tradbransle/ProjTradbr/ Biomassaflöden%20i%20svensk%20skogsnäring %202004-2(förf%20P- O%20Nilsson,%20prof%20emer).pdfhttp://www.svo.se/episerver4/dokument/sks/Statist ik/dokumenten/Produktion/Tradbransle/ProjTradbr/ Biomassaflöden%20i%20svensk%20skogsnäring %202004-2(förf%20P- O%20Nilsson,%20prof%20emer).pdf Biomass flows in the Swedish Forest Sector 2004 (translated)

30. 30 Increase of the forest stock Energy Forest Industry Products Raw material left in the forest

31. 31 Increase of the forest stock Energy Raw material left in the forest Forest Industry Products

32. 32 Final fellings Increase of the forest stock Commercial Thinnings Partial harvest

33. 33 #05. Forests, CO2, CCS and risk management

34. 34 Optimal dynamic control of the forest resource with changing energy demand functions and valuation of CO2 storage Presentation at the Conference: The European Forest-based Sector: Bio-Responses to Address New Climate and Energy Challenges? Nancy, France, November 6-8, 2008 Peter Lohmander Professor of Forest Management and Economic Optimization SLU, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Umea, Sweden http://www.Lohmander.com

35. 35 Structure of the presentation: #1. Introduction to rational use of the forest when we consider CO2 and energy production #2. Optimal dynamic control of the forest resource with changing energy demand functions and valuation of CO2 storage #3. Optimal CCS, Carbon Capture and Storage, Under Risk #4. Conclusions

36. 36 #1. Introduction to rational use of the forest when we consider CO2 and energy production

37. 37 The role of the forest? The best way to reduce the CO2 in the atmosphere may be to increase harvesting of the presently existing forests (!), to produce energy with CCS and to increase forest production in the new forest generations. We capture and store more CO2!

38. 38 The role of the forest? The best way to reduce the CO2 in the atmosphere may be to increase harvesting of the presently existing forests (!), to produce energy with CCS and to increase forest production in the new forest generations. We capture and store more CO2!

39. 39 Permanent storage of CO2 Coal mine Oil field Natural gas CCS, Carbon Capture and Storage, has already become the main future emission reduction method of the fossile fuel energy industry Energy plant with CO2 capture and separation

40. 40 BBC World News 2008-10-17: The British government declares that the CO2 emissions will be reduced by 80% by 2050! CCS is the method to be used in combination with fossile fuels such as coal.

41. 41 Reference to CCS in the energy industry and EU policy 2nd Annual EMISSIONS REDUCTION FORUM: - Establishing Effective CO2, NOx, SOx Mitigation Strategies for the Power Industry, CD, Marcus Evans Ltd, Madrid, Spain, 29th & 30th September 2008 The CD (above) includes presentations where several dominating European energy companies show how they develop and use CCS and where the European Commission gives the general European emission and energy policy perspective. Conference programme: http://www.lohmander.com/Madrid08/MadridProg08.pdf

42. 42 Lohmander, P., Guidelines for Economically Rational and Coordinated Dynamic Development of the Forest and Bio Energy Sectors with CO2 constraints, Proceedings from the 16th European Biomass Conference and Exhibition, Valencia, Spain, 02-06 June, 2008 (In the version in the link, below, an earlier misprint has been corrected. ) http://www.Lohmander.com/Valencia2008.pdf http://www.Lohmander.com/Valencia2008.pdf Lohmander, P., Economically Optimal Joint Strategy for Sustainable Bioenergy and Forest Sectors with CO2 Constraints, European Biomass Forum, Exploring Future Markets, Financing and Technology for Power Generation, CD, Marcus Evans Ltd, Amsterdam, 16th-17th June, 2008 http://www.Lohmander.com/Amsterdam2008.ppt http://www.Lohmander.com/Amsterdam2008.ppt

43. 43 Lohmander, P., Tools for optimal coordination of CCS, power industry capacity expansion and bio energy raw material production and harvesting, 2nd Annual EMISSIONS REDUCTION FORUM: - Establishing Effective CO2, NOx, SOx Mitigation Strategies for the Power Industry, CD, Marcus Evans Ltd, Madrid, Spain, 29th & 30th September 2008 http://www.lohmander.com/Madrid08/Madrid_2008_Lohmander.ppt Lohmander, P., Optimal CCS, Carbon Capture and Storage, Under Risk, International Seminars in Life Sciences, UPV, Universidad Politécnica de Valencia, Thursday 2008-10-16 http://www.Lohmander.com/OptCCS/OptCCS.ppt

44. 44 CO2 Permanent storage of CO2 How to reduce the CO2 level in the atmosphere, not only to decrease the emission of CO2 Energy plant with CO2 capture and separation

45. 45 The role of the forest in the CO2 and energy system The following six pictures show that it is necessary to intensify the use of the forest for energy production in combination with CCS in order to reduce the CO2 in atmosphere! All figures and graphs have been simplified as much as possible, keeping the big picture correct, in order to make the main point obvious. In all cases, we keep the total energy production constant.

46. 46 CO2 Permanent storage of CO2 Coal, oil, gas The present situation. 4 1 5 0 1 CO2 increase in the atmosphere: 5-1 = 4

47. 47 CO2 Permanent storage of CO2 Coal, oil, gas If we do not use the forest for energy production but use it as a carbon sink. Before the forest has reached equilibrium, this happens: 5 5 0 1 CO2 increase in the atmosphere: 5-1 = 4

48. 48 CO2 Permanent storage of CO2 Coal, oil, gas If we do not use the forest for energy production but use it as a carbon sink. When the forest has reached equilibrium, this happens: 5 1 5 0 1 CO2 increase in the atmosphere: 5+1-1 = 5

49. 49 CO2 Permanent storage of CO2 Coal, oil, gas If we use CCS with 80% efficiency and let the forest grow until it reaches equilibrium. 5 1 1 4 1 CO2 increase in the atmosphere: 1+1-1 = 1

50. 50 CO2 Permanent storage of CO2 Coal, oil, gas If we use CCS with 80% efficiency and use the forest with ”traditional” low intensity harvesting and silviculture. 4 1 1 4 1 CO2 increase in the atmosphere: 1-1 = 0

51. 51 CO2 Permanent storage of CO2 Coal, oil, gas If we use CCS with 80% efficiency and use the forest with increased harvesting and high intensity silviculture. 3 2 1 4 2 CO2 ”increase” in the atmosphere: 1-2 = -1

52. 52 General conclusions: The best way to reduce the CO2 in the atmosphere may be to increase harvesting of the presently existing forests (!), to produce energy with CCS and to increase forest production in the new forest generations. We capture and store more CO2!

53. 53 #2. Optimal dynamic control of the forest resource with changing energy demand functions and valuation of CO2 storage

54. 54 The optimal control derivations and the software are found here: Lohmander, P., Optimal resource control model & General continuous time optimal control model of a forest resource, comparative dynamics and CO2 consideration effects, Seminar at SLU, Umea, Sweden, 2008-09-18 http://www.lohmander.com/CM/CMLohmander.ppt Software: http://www.lohmander.com/CM/CM.htm

55. 55 The Total Economic Result (Present Value) The Stock Level The ”Control” Level Economic valuation of CO2 storage in the natural resource Economic Valuation of the Production of Energy and Other Industrial Products

56. 56 Initial stock level Terminal stock level The change of the stock level during a marginal time interval

57. 57 V0 Time 0 Stock The forest stock level has increased very much in Sweden during 80 years!

58. 58 If the forest owner gets paid for the CO2 stored in the forest, it becomes optimal for the forest owner to harvest less and increase the stock level. Still, it may be even better for society to harvest more, decrease the wood stock and use CCS to store the CO2. The stored CO2 is rewarded. The stored CO2 is not rewarded.

59. 59 #3. Optimal CCS, Carbon Capture and Storage, Under Risk

60. 60 The stochastic optimal control derivations of CCS are found here: Lohmander, P., Optimal CCS, Carbon Capture and Storage, Under Risk, International Seminars in Life Sciences, Universidad Politécnica de Valencia, Thursday 2008-10-16 http://www.Lohmander.com/OptCCS/OptCCS.ppt

61. 61 Optimal CCS, Carbon Capture and Storage, Under Risk The objective function is the total present value of CO2 storage minus CCS costs. Discounting factor u = control = CCS level x = The total storage level of CO2

62. 62 The controlled storage A stochastic differential equation: Change of the CO2 storage level. Control = CCS level. Expected CO2 leakage. The CO2 storage level is to some extent affected by stochastic leakage and other stochastic events. Z = standard Wiener process.

63. 63 The optimal CCS objective function for different risk levels. The details are found in the reference. V(x,t) x t

64. 64 #4. Conclusions

65. 65 Optimal Forest management conclusions: If the forest owner gets paid for the CO2 stored in the forest, it becomes optimal for the forest owner to harvest less and increase the stock level. Still, it may be even better for society to harvest more, decrease the present wood stock and use CCS to store the CO2. The best way to reduce the CO2 in the atmosphere may be to increase harvesting of the presently existing forests (!), to produce energy with CCS and to increase forest production in the new forest generations.

66. 66 Optimal CCS Conclusions: A mathematical approach to optimal CCS control has been developed that can handle risk. Possible leakage is an important issue that has to be carefully investigated in the future. It is important that the future management decisions are based on a decision model consistent with the structure of this model and that the parameter values are carefully estimated before practical management decisions are calculated.

67. 67 #06. The forest harvest level and industrial expansion

68. 68 Operations Research with Economic Optimization: -Raw material Perspective -Total Perspective I -Total Perspective II

69. 69 Raw Material Perspective The present value as a function of the time of the final felling, t: Discounting factor Value of the forest stand Value of the bare land Present value of the stand and the land

70. 70 Figure 1. The Present Value EXP(- 0.03·t)·(20000 + 1000·t + 2000) Present Value (SEK/Hectare) Number of Years from the Present

71. 71 The Raw Material Perspective and Optimization You may instantly calculate the economically optimal decisions, from a raw material perspective, using software available from the Internet: http://www.lohmander.com/program/Faust_Slut/InFaust3.html http://www.lohmander.com/program/Stump02/InStump022.html

72. 72 = Stock level = Growth = Net Price = Net Price Growth = Land Value = Interest Rate(%) Optimize! Web Software for Economic Optimization from a Raw Material Perspective

73. 73 Optimal Results Optimal Harvest Year Optimal Present Value

74. 74 Harvest Year Present Value Present Value Difference

75. 75 Web Software for Economic Optimization from a Raw Material Perspective = Stock level Web Software for Economic Optimization from a Raw Material Perspective = Growth = Net Price = Net Price Growth = Land Value = Interest Rate(%) Optimize!

76. 76 Optimal Results Optimal Harvest Year Optimal Present Value

77. 77 Harvest Year Present Value Present Value Difference

78. 78 Observations From a pure ”raw material perspective”, you may show that a very large part of the Swedish forest should be instantly harvested, even if the real rate of interest is not higher than 3%. If the real rate of interest exceeds 3%, you should if possible harvest even more. If the growth rate of the next forest generation increases, you should also harvest the present forest earlier.

79. 79 Age distribution in the county of Gävleborg (2001-2005). Thousands of hectares in different age classes (years). A large part of the forest is much older than the optimal harvest age

80. 80 Total perspective I

81. 81 V0 Time 0 Stock

82. 82 h0 < g h1 > g h2 = g

83. 83

84. 84

85. 85

86. 86 Appendix 1: General proof that the total economic value is a strictly increasing function of the production (and capacity) level in the next industry generation (as as long as the time when the capacity will be utilized is not sufficiently short to give “extraordinary” capacity costs.) This approach represents “Total Perspective I”.

87. 87 Derivations and parameters (I) Rate of interestr0,06 Growth (now)g106 Growth (future)g106 t15 Stock (now)v03000 Harvest (before t1)h086 z01 z11 z21

88. 88 http://www.lohmander.com/EF2008/EF2008.htm Web software for Total Perspective I

89. 89

90. 90

91. 91 vfutureh1t2totval 3000106 inf1680 3000108551703 3000110301718 300011221,61727 300011417,51732 3000116151735

92. 92 Observations Even if we do not accept to decrease the stock level below the very high level of today, we should strongly increase harvesting during a considerable time interval. In this first derivation, the improved growth rate in new plantations has not been considered.

93. 93 vfutureh1t2totval 2500106 inf1680 2500116651800 2500126351886 2500136251939 2500146201973 2500156171997

94. 94 Observations If we are prepared to adjust the stock level to the stock level of the year 1985, (approximately 2 500 Mm3sk), we should increase harvesting very much during a long time period. Then, the total economic value strongly improves. In this derivation, the improved growth rate in new plantations has not been considered.

95. 95

96. 96

97. 97 Total perspective II

98. 98 Appendix 2: Derivations of exlicit functions for the stock levels at different points in time under the influence of changing harvest levels and production in dynamically introduced new plantations. This approach represents “Total Perspective II”.

99. 99

100. 100

101. 101 How rapidly will new forests grow? Example: Pine: Director of silviculture Dr. Per Persson, SCA says: Pinus contorta on average grows 40% faster than Scots pine. Source: Jägmästarnas förenings höstexkursion, Skogsakademikern, Årgång 21, Nr 4, 2007

102. 102 How rapidly will new forests grow? Example: Spruce: Dr. Bo Karlsson, Skogforsk: ”Improved spruce plants already today give 15% better growth than naturally regenerated plants, but the potential is even higher. It should not be impossible to obtain up to 40% growth improvements.” Source: Skogsvårdsstyrelsens seminarium "Granen i fokus" i Borås, Tidningen Skogsvärden, Nr 4, 2005 http://www.skogssallskapet.se/skogsvarden/2005_4/sv13.php

103. 103 How rapidly will new forests grow? Example: Intensive plantations: - Treat forestry seriously! Start with intensive forest management! These are the words of Fredrik Klang, district manager at Sveaskog, Västra Götaland. He says that a production increase of 20 procent is easy to obtain if you really want to. With fertilization, the production could even increase by 150%. - Perhaps we can use 2-5% of the land for more intensive production. If 10% of the forest land is used for intensive production (that is the size of the area today set aside for environmental purposes), this would improve the national forest production by 15%. - This, in turn, would improve employment, the environment and the growth. Source: Skogsvårdsstyrelsens seminarium "Granen i fokus" i Borås, Tidningen Skogsvärden, Nr 4, 2005 http://www.skogssallskapet.se/skogsvarden/2005_4/sv13.php

104. 104 If harvested areas are replanted with more rapidly growing seedlings, the stock path becomes strictly convex (during time periods with constant harvesting)

105. 105 Derivations and parameters (II) Rate of interestr0,06 Growth (now)g0106 Growth (new seedlings)g1126 t15 Stock (now)v03000 Harvest (before t1)h086 z01 z11 z21 ATKvot80

106. 106 http://www.lohmander.com/EF2008/EFchange2008.htm Web software for Total Perspective II

107. 107

108. 108

109. 109

110. 110 h1t2totvalvfuture 1166518063055 1263519062666 1362519662586 1462020042556 1561720292541

111. 111

112. 112

113. 113

114. 114 Observations In this derivation, a growth improvement of 19% in future forest generations has been assumed. (126/106 -1 = 19%). The maximum potential future growth, 40% or much more with intensive management, has not at all been utilized or assumed. Still, we should strongly increase harvesting during a long period. For instance, we may harvest 136 Miljon m3sk per year during 20 years. This period starts in five years. 25 years from now, we will have 2.6 billion cubic metres in the forest (which is the same as the stock level in 1985). Harvesting increases by 58%!!! The total economic value strongly improves. Industrial capacity of different kinds that utilize forest raw material should be very much expanded. The employment improves for a long time.

115. 115 New observations The forest policy and regulations are not optimally chosen with respect to the economy of Sweden, employment and the environment. If we want to get the best possible forest sector and energy policy, coordinated activities of a new kind are necessary.

116. 116 Eon investsts billions in Sverige 2008-01-02 | 07:41 The new director of E.ON Nordic, Håkan Buskhe, informs about large investments in Sweden during the next years. Between 2007 and 2013, the investment plans represent almost 50 billion SEK (=5 billion Euro) (Dagens Industri). – Between 2007 and 2010, we are talking about 37 billion SEK, Buskhe says. With the investments in nuclear power, where Eon partly owns all ten Swedish reactors, a CCP power station in Malmö, wind power and four bioenergy power stations, the new investments will give 8,5 terawatt hours. This roughly corresponds to the two nuclear reactors that have been shut down in Barsebäck. www.realtid.se

117. 117 General observations The harvest level in Sweden is absolutely not too high! Sweden would, in every way, benefit if the harvest level strongly increased during a long time period. We do not need the expensive roundwood import from Russia. We should not shut down the pulp mills. The unemployment in the Gävle region is quite unneccesary. The forest industry and the energy industry utilizing raw material from the forest should be strongly expanded. Sources: Lohmander, P., Ekonomiskt rationell utveckling för skogs- och energisektorn i Sverige, Nordisk Papper och Massa, Nr 3, 40-41, 2008, http://www.Lohmander.com/ERD2008/ERD2008.pdfhttp://www.Lohmander.com/ERD2008/ERD2008.pdf Lohmander, P., Lägg inte ned Svensk skogsindustri på grund av virkesbrist, Krönika, Nordisk Papper och Massa 8/2007 http://www.Lohmander.com/kronika_NPM07.pdf http://www.Lohmander.com/kronika_NPM07.pdf

118. 118 Suggestions for the future We need a special commission with this task: ”Create a coordinated development plan for the forest-, energy- and car- industry sectors in Sweden that is rational with respect to total economics, employment and the environment.” The comission should report directly to the government, once a year, 2009 – 2011, and have a budget of 50 MSEK (5 M EURO). Organization: Peter Lohmander (Chair), The Forest Sector, The Energy Sector, The Car Industry and the Department of the Environment.

119. 119 #07. Integrated regional study and risk management

120. 120 The optimal joint management strategy of the forests, the energy plants and the forest industry mills will be determined in a region. Three coorporations are involved: E.ON Sweden, Holmen and Sveaskog.

121. 121 Integrated regional study and risk management Preliminary map of the locations of the main energy plants (red filled circles) and forest industry mills (black filled squares) that will be included in the total optimization. Coorporations: E.ON Sweden, Holmen and Sveaskog.

122. 122

123. 123

124. 124 Risk is an important property of the real world! Where do we have risk? Future market prices of energy and raw materials. The properties of the capital market. Future environental regulations. Technological options and future costs.

125. 125 Consequences for optimal strategies: The management strategy must be optimal when we consider risk. Flexible strategies must be defined and optimized! Long term predictions and detailed long term plans are not relevant in a world influenced by risk. Adaptive optimization, stochastic dynamic programming and stochastic optimal control are the only relevant approaches.

126. 126 Stochastic Dynamic Optimization of Forest Industry Company Management INFORMS International Meeting 2007 Puerto Rico Peter Lohmander Professor SLU Umea, SE-901 83, Sweden, http://www.Lohmander.com Version 2007-06-21

127. 127

128. 128 Abstract Forest industry production, capacity and harvest levels are optimized. Adaptive full system optimization is necessary for consistent results. The stochastic dynamic programming problem of a complete forest industry company is solved. The raw material stock level and the main product prices are state variables. In each state and at each stage, a linear programming profit maximization problem of the forest company is solved. Parameters from the Swedish forest industry are used as illustration.

129. 129 Question How should these activities in a typical forest industry company be optimized and coordinated in the presence of stochastic markets? *Pulp, paper and liner production and sales, *Sawn wood production and sales, *Raw material procurement and sales, *Harvest operations *Transport

130. 130

131. 131 Optimal stock and purchase policy with stochastic external deliveries in different markets 12th Symposium for Systems Analysis in Forest Resources, Burlington, Vermont, USA, September 5-8, 2006 Peter Lohmander Professor of Forest Management and Economic Optimization, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, Dept. of Forest Economics, 901 83 Umea, Sweden, http://www.lohmander.com/ http://www.lohmander.com/ Version 060830

132. 132 Optimally controlled stochastic stock path under monopsony when the entering stock level state is 6.

133. 133 Optimally controlled stochastic stock path under perfect raw material market when the entering stock level state is 6.

134. 134

135. 135

136. 136 #08. Conclusions and plans for the future

137. 137 International Project Development: Title (prel.): Rational European Forest Management with Increasing Bioenergy Demand and Risk Coordination: Sweden (Peter Lohmander) Cooperators (prel.): France, Germany, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland

138. 138 Future discussions: Peter Lohmander is organizing the conference stream “Optimal Forest Management with Increasing Bioenergy Demand” within The 23rd European Conference on Operational Research (EURO XXIII), July 5-8, 2009, Bonn, Germany. http://www.lohmander.com/Bonn2009/Bonn2009.pdf http://www.lohmander.com/Bonn2009/Bonn2009.pdf Let us continue our discussions and meet there!

139. 139 #09. Thanks to E.On

140. 140 My warmest ”Thanks” to E.ON Sweden for economic support to the project ”Economic forest production with consideration of the forest- and energy- industries”! Peter Lohmander Professor of Forest Management and Economic Optimization, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences http://www.Lohmander.com Peter@Lohmander.com

141. 141 #10. References http://www.lohmander.com/Information/Ref.htm More options: Go to http://www.Lohmander.com Click on: Economic Optimization Software, Courses and Conferences, or Information

142. 142 Some of the latest references Kärr, P (Interview with Peter Lohmander): Skogsprofessor tonar ned Skogsstyrelsens larm: "Det är inget katastrofläge", Västerbottningen - Jord och Skog, 7 Juni, 2007, http://www.lohmander.com/information/Vasterbottningen070607.doc http://www.lohmander.com/information/Vasterbottningen070607.doc Lohmander, P., Stochastic Dynamic Optimization of Forest Industry Company Management, INFORMS International Meeting 2007, Puerto Rico, Power Point Presentation, http://www.Lohmander.com/SDO.ppthttp://www.Lohmander.com/SDO.ppt Lohmander, P., A Stochastic Differential (Difference) Game Model With an LP Subroutine for Mixed and Pure Strategy Optimization, INFORMS International Meeting 2007, Puerto Rico, Power Point Presentation, http://www.Lohmander.com/SDG.ppthttp://www.Lohmander.com/SDG.ppt

143. 143 Lohmander, P., Adaptive Optimization of Forest Management in a Stochastic World, in Weintraub A. et al (Editors), Handbook of Operations Research in Natural Resources, Springer, Springer Science, International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, New York, USA, pp 525-544, 2007 http://www.amazon.ca/gp/reader/0387718141/ref=sib_dp_pt/701-0734992- 1741115#reader-link http://www.amazon.ca/gp/reader/0387718141/ref=sib_dp_pt/701-0734992- 1741115#reader-link Lohmander, P., Fatta beslut med hjälp av spelteori, Hemvärnet - Nationella Skyddsstyrkorna, 2007-10-26 http://tidningenhemvarnet.se/ http://webnews.textalk.com/se/article.php?id=281997 http://tidningenhemvarnet.se/ http://webnews.textalk.com/se/article.php?id=281997 Mohammadi, L.S., Lohmander, P., Stumpage Prices in the Iranian Caspian Forests, Asian Journal of Plant Sciences, 6 (7): 1027-1036, 2007, ISSN 1682-3974, 2007 Asian Network for Scientific Information, http://ansijournals.com/ajps/2007/1027-1036.pdf http://www.Lohmander.com/MoLo2007.pdf http://ansijournals.com/ajps/2007/1027-1036.pdf http://www.Lohmander.com/MoLo2007.pdf

144. 144 Ekman, S-O., (Interview with Peter Lohmander): Fabriken läggs ner helt i onödan, Gefle Dagblad, 2007-10-30 http://www.gd.se/start.jsp http://www.gd.se/Article.jsp?article=116927 http://www.gd.se/start.jsp http://www.gd.se/Article.jsp?article=116927 Lohmander, P., Skapa inte arbetslöshet när industrikapaciteten borde expanderas! (SVT Nyheter, 2007-10-30, 19.10) http://svt.se/svt/play/video.jsp?a=379740 http://svt.se/svt/play/video.jsp?a=379740 Lohmander, P., Ökad avverkning skulle kunna rädda Norrsundet, Nordic Paper Journal, 2007-10-30 http://www.papernet.se/iuware.aspx?pageid=395&ssoid= 69620 http://www.papernet.se/iuware.aspx?pageid=395&ssoid= 69620

145. 145 Lohmander, P., Fabriken läggs ned helt i onödan, Skogsindustrierna, 2007-10-31 http://www.skogsindustrierna.org/litiuminformation/site/page.a sp?Page=10&IncPage=578&Destination=227&IncPage2=236&D estination2=226&PKNews=5935 http://www.skogsindustrierna.org/litiuminformation/site/page.a sp?Page=10&IncPage=578&Destination=227&IncPage2=236&D estination2=226&PKNews=5935 Lohmander, P., Norrsundet läggs ner helt i onödan, Nordisk Papper och Massa, 2007-11-01 http://www.branschnyheter.se/article11497.php http://www.branschnyheter.se/article11497.php Lohmander, P., Lägg inte ned Svensk skogsindustri på grund av virkesbrist, Krönika, Nordisk Papper och Massa 8/2007 http://www.Lohmander.com/kronika_NPM07.pdf http://www.Lohmander.com/kronika_NPM07.pdf

146. 146 Lohmander, P,. Energy Forum, Stockholm, 6-7 February 2008, Conference program with links to report and software by Peter Lohmander: http://www.energyforum.com/events/conferences/2008/c802/pro gram.php http://www.lohmander.com/EF2008/EF2008Lohmander.htm http://www.energyforum.com/events/conferences/2008/c802/pro gram.php http://www.lohmander.com/EF2008/EF2008Lohmander.htm Lohmander, P., Ekonomiskt rationell dynamisk utveckling för skogen, skogsindustrin och energiindustrin i Sverige (Manuscript 2008-03-03) http://www.Lohmander.com/ERD2008/ERD2008.pdf http://www.Lohmander.com/ERD2008/ERD2008.pdf Lohmander, P., Ekonomiskt rationell utveckling för skogs- och energisektorn i Sverige, Nordisk Papper och Massa, Nr 3, 2008

147. 147 Lohmander, P., Mohammadi, S., Optimal Continuous Cover Forest Management in an Uneven-Aged Forest in the North of Iran, Journal of Applied Sciences 8(11), 2008 http://ansijournals.com/jas/2008/1995-2007.pdf http://www.Lohmander.com/LoMoOCC.pdfhttp://ansijournals.com/jas/2008/1995-2007.pdf http://www.Lohmander.com/LoMoOCC.pdf Mohammadi, L.S., Lohmander, P., A game theory approach to the Iranian forest industry raw material market, Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences, Vol 6, No1, pp. 59-71, 2008 http://research.guilan.ac.ir/cjes/.papers/969.pdf http://www.Lohmander.com/MoLoAGTA.pdfhttp://research.guilan.ac.ir/cjes/.papers/969.pdf http://www.Lohmander.com/MoLoAGTA.pdf Lohmander, P., (Eng: Peter Lohmander (in white jacket and black tie) explains that the forest growth strongly exceeds the harvest. Lohmander motivates increased harvesting and increased capacity expansion in bioenergy plants and the forest products industry), Swe: Skogsavverkningen kan ökas enligt forskare! (Swedish Television, News, 2008-05-29, 19.15) http://svt.se/svt/play/video.jsp?a=1158529 http://svt.se/svt/play/video.jsp?a=1158529

148. 148 Lohmander, P., Guidelines for Economically Rational and Coordinated Dynamic Development of the Forest and Bio Energy Sectors with CO2 constraints, Proceedings from the 16th European Biomass Conference and Exhibition, Valencia, Spain, 02-06 June, 2008 (In the version in the link, below, an earlier misprint has been corrected. ) http://www.Lohmander.com/Valencia2008.pdf http://www.Lohmander.com/Valencia2008.pdf Lohmander, P., Economically Optimal Joint Strategy for Sustainable Bioenergy and Forest Sectors with CO2 Constraints, European Biomass Forum, Exploring Future Markets, Financing and Technology for Power Generation, CD, Marcus Evans Ltd, Amsterdam, 16th-17th June, 2008 http://www.Lohmander.com/Amsterdam2008.ppthttp://www.Lohmander.com/Amsterdam2008.ppt Lohmander, P., Ekonomiskt rationell utveckling för skogs- och energisektorn, Nordisk Energi, Nr. 4, 2008

149. 149 Lohmander, P., Tools for optimal coordination of CCS, power industry capacity expansion and bio energy raw material production and harvesting, 2nd Annual EMISSIONS REDUCTION FORUM: - Establishing Effective CO2, NOx, SOx Mitigation Strategies for the Power Industry, CD, Marcus Evans Ltd, Madrid, Spain, 29th & 30th September 2008 http://www.lohmander.com/Madrid08/Madrid_2008_Lohmander. ppt http://www.lohmander.com/Madrid08/Madrid_2008_Lohmander. ppt Lohmander, P., Optimal CCS, Carbon Capture and Storage, Under Risk, International Seminars in Life Sciences, UPV, Universidad Politécnica de Valencia, Thursday 2008-10-16 http://www.Lohmander.com/OptCCS/OptCCS.ppt

150. 150 Thank you for listening! Here you may reach me in the future: Peter Lohmander Professor of Forest Management and Economic Optimization, SLU, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Faculty of Forest Sciences, Dept. of Forest Economics, SE-901 83 Umea, Sweden http://www.Lohmander.com Peter@Lohmander.com peter.lohmander@sekon.slu.se