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This research has been prepared for the use of the wholesale clients of Macquarie Bank Ltd and its wholly-owned subsidiaries (“the Macquarie Group”). In preparing this research, the Macquarie Group has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of the reader. Before making an investment decision on the basis of this research, the reader needs to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. Please see disclaimer. Broadband: serious business Network Insight Institute conference 24 November 2003 Scott Ryall (612) 8232 7124 scott.ryall@macquarie.com
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Macquarie Research Equities Page 2 Role of a telco equity analyst Current broadband take-up Reasons for broadband growth being slower than expected given global growth Growth projections Planning investment Threats to sustainable broadband growth Outline
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Macquarie Research Equities Page 3 Assess whether listed telecom stocks are Under valued; or Over valued; or Fairly valued Keep adept of technological, competitive and regulatory issues impacting telecom operators Form a view on the prospects of a company from studying a wide range of sources including Senior management Line Management Suppliers Competitors Investors Regulators Role of a telco equity analyst
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Macquarie Research Equities Page 4 What is clear about broadband take-up? There is no one perfect source of information ACCC data has the potential for double-counting and the splits appear dubious ABS data has obvious statistical shortcomings Similar to dial-up, there are many providers – there has even been restatements of customer numbers by major carriers Even potential SME customer numbers is a source of debate MRE’s estimate for SME broadband subs is ~225K at Sept 2003 >20% penetration of businesses MRE’s estimate for consumer broadband subs is ~400K ~5% household penetration Internet penetration is ~55% (just under PC penetration) Current broadband take-up
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Macquarie Research Equities Page 5 There has been a lot of noise about Australian broadband growth lagging other OECD countries Some has been self-interest There have been some historical reasons for such growth levels Pricing – may be too high, but most importantly too uncertain Entry level DSL near dial-up cost on a second line with call costs Bigger issue is uncertainty of pricing from download limits (17% of revenue) – customers are not used to measurement by the MB ISPs are throttling speeds, some are offering unlimited downloads Content and applications – critical, but not mass market yet As content and applications become bandwidth hungry, broadband becomes more compelling (and price less important) SMEs have compelling reasons for take-up, mass market does not Broadband growth has been slow
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Macquarie Research Equities Page 6 Stable technology is a must Telstra’s broadband offerings have had much poor publicity – this cannot be good for take-up or its own brand Lack of network competition Particularly noticeable in the US Looks set to change – new networks being built or considered Consumer education has improved significantly Capital market discipline Part of the reason for the demand register Could be short sighted view – state governments are taking matters into their own hands Broadband growth has been slow
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Macquarie Research Equities Page 7 Telstra is expected to hit its target of 1m subs by 2005 Current run rate is sufficient Optus selling DSL will increase take-up Broadband growth projections
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Macquarie Research Equities Page 8 Key points to note All SMEs with internet are expected to have a broadband connection by FY08 Telstra’s recent launch of business grade DSL services will assist Household broadband penetration expected to be >35% by 2010 (overall internet penetration >70%) Dial-up internet is expected to continue to have a place in the market – the alternative is a low cost broadband product (eg SingTel’s $19 entry level plan) For Telstra, the retail vs wholesale split will be critical in its attempt to achieve $1bn of broadband revenues in 2006 Broadband growth projections
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Macquarie Research Equities Page 9 Market is unsure whether new broadband applications will provide material incremental earnings growth Revenue substitution Upfront cost of connection Need to control churn in the long term Does have the potential for redistribution of revenues Between carriers/SPs Between business lines Primary areas of potential network investment over 1-2 years Roll out of competing DSL infrastructure Wireless broadband networks (Unwired and Personal Broadband) Regional HFC networks (Neighbourhood Cable, TransACT) Some FTTH pilots emerging Planning investment
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Macquarie Research Equities Page 10 DSL infrastructure roll out made possible by ULL/LSS regimes We expect ISPs to use Telstra’s wholesale products as a means of building scale (some more aggressively than others) When scale is reached in a particular exchange, an ISP can make a build vs buy decision using either the ULL or LSS price For large service providers (eg Optus, Primus) we have estimated that 18 month breakeven could be achieved with <100 customers in an exchange using LSS This is a threat to Telstra’s wholesale revenues and illustrates why it needs to maintain retail scale as well Potential voice revenues (through VoIP/VoDSL) will be a crucial source of revenue for considering ULL or building new networks Retention is a HUGE issue for the DSL industry Planning investment
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Macquarie Research Equities Page 11 While broadband subscriber growth is expected to be strong, other key metrics for value creation are Broadband ARPUs (currently $70-90/month) Acquisition and retention costs Key threats to the other metrics arise from high levels of competition Too much infrastructure – either DSL, HFC, FTTH or wireless Too many players with insufficient scale that price to achieve scale Lack of brand equity and therefore ease of churn Threats to sustainable broadband growth
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Macquarie Research Equities Page 12 Disclaimer: Macquarie Equities (Australia) Ltd; Macquarie Equities (UK) Ltd; Macquarie Securities (USA) Inc; Macquarie Equities (Asia) Ltd; Macquarie Securities (Asia) Pte Ltd; and Macquarie Equities New Zealand Ltd are not authorised deposit-taking institutions for the purposes of the Banking Act (Commonwealth of Australia) 1959, and their obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of Macquarie Bank Ltd ABN 46 008 583 542. Macquarie Bank Ltd does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of any of the above mentioned entities. © Macquarie Group. This research has been prepared for the use of the wholesale clients of Macquarie Bank Ltd and its wholly-owned subsidiaries (the “Macquarie Group”) and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient you must not use or disclose the information in this research in any way. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. In preparing this research, we did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of the reader. Before making an investment decision on the basis of this research, the reader needs to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. There are risks involved in securities trading. The price of securities can and does fluctuate, and an individual security may even become valueless. International investors are reminded of the additional risks inherent in international investments, such as currency fluctuations and international stock market or economic conditions, which may adversely affect the value of the investment. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and accurately reflect the analyst(s)' personal views at the time of writing. No member of the Macquarie Group accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. This research has been issued and distributed in Australia, by Macquarie Equities (Australia) Ltd (ABN 58 002 832 126), a licensed securities dealer and a participating organisation of the Australian Stock Exchange Ltd; in the UK and Germany, by Macquarie Equities (UK) Ltd, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (No. 3704031). Its related body corporate, Macquarie Bank Ltd, is a member of the London Stock Exchange and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (the investments and investment services the subject of this research are not available to private customers in the UK); in the US, by Macquarie Securities (USA) Inc. Any transactions by US persons in any security discussed in this research must be carried out through Macquarie Securities (USA) Inc; in Hong Kong, by Macquarie Equities (Asia) Ltd, a registered dealer under the Securities and Futures Ordinance; approved for distribution in Singapore by Macquarie Securities (Asia) Pte Ltd, a licensed dealer and investment adviser in Singapore. All enquiries from Singapore residents in relation to securities referred to in this research should be directed to Macquarie Securities (Asia) Pte Ltd; in New Zealand, by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Ltd, a licensed sharebroker and member of the New Zealand Stock Exchange. The Macquarie Group of companies and their officers and employees may have interests in securities referred to in this research, including being directors of, or providing investment banking services to, their issuer. Further, they may act as market maker or buy or sell those securities as principal or agent, and as such may effect transactions which are not consistent with the recommendations (if any) in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research receives compensation based on the Firm's overall revenues, including investment banking revenues. The reader should assume that the Macquarie Group receives or has received compensation in connection with these relationships. Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein, are available at www.macquarie.com.au/research/disclosures, through Macquarie Research Equities at eqgmagres@macquarie.com or your Macquarie representative. The Macquarie Group advised TEL in relation to the strategic alliance between TEL and Hutchison Whampoa Group, announced 11.05.01. The analyst and/or associated parties own or have other interests in securities issued by TLS. The analyst and/or associated parties own or have other interests in securities issued by SGT.
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