1. Ministerial Forum on Homelessness and Social Housing Where we are today Dr Ian Winter Executive Director Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute

2. Presentation to Victorian Ministerial Forum Ian Winter Executive Director, AHURI

3.  Evidence foundation for today’s discussion  Sharpen definition of ‘the housing problem(s)’  Identify solutions fit for addressing those problems Purpose

4. Structure  Backdrop of long-run changes in the structure and dynamics of Australia’s housing system  Focus in on Victoria with a view to clarifying the differing nature of the housing problems we face  Overview the policy interventions that are fit-for- purpose, given the nature of the problem(s)

5. Part one Long-run changes in the Australian housing system

6. Housing System Snapshot No stable housing ~105k people No stable housing ~105k people Renters 30% Renters 30% Owners 67% Owners 67% Community housing ~82k dwellings Community housing ~82k dwellings Public housing ~338k dwellings Public housing ~338k dwellings Social housing 5% Social housing 5% Private market 25% Private market 25% Mortgage holders 35% Mortgage holders 35% Outright owners 32% Outright owners 32% Note: 934 470 unoccupied private dwellings in 2011 Percent of 7.76m occupied dwellings from ABS 2011 Census and 2013 admin data (includes Indigenous community housing and state owned and managed Indigenous housing)

7. Fewer households in the most secure tenures Public housing and outright ownership Source: ABS 4130

8. … and rates of ownership and purchase are falling for younger cohorts Source: Burke (2014) Table 4 - ABS Census, unit record files, 1981, 1991, 2001, 2011

9. Exit from and churn through home ownership Source: Wood, G, Smith S, Ong R, and Cigdem M. (2013) - calculations from the 2001–10 HILDA Survey, 2001–08 BHPS and UKHLS wave 2

10. Long term and short term rental increasing … Source: 1994 ABS Rental Tenants Survey (Wulff 1997; Wulff & Maher 1998); ABS SIH 2007–08 (original), from Stone et al (2013). (one to 4 years)(5 to 10 years)(over 10 years)

11. Lack of affordable housing for low income renters Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing 2011, data Lowest two quintiles (From Hulse et al. 2014)

12. Shortages have grown over time Source: Hulse et al. 2015, customised ABS 1996, 2006 and 2011 ABS Census of Population and Housing data

13. Social housing stock numbers declining Source: ROGS 2014, Table 17A.3; ABS 3101

14. Higher homelessness linked to crowding not rough sleeping Source: ABS 2049, Census of Population and Housing, Estimating homelessness 2011

15. Conclusion Long run structural change in the Australian Housing system  Home ownership falling—entries and fall outs  Private rental growing—long term, supply shortages and high affordability stress  Social housing supply falling and three quarters of allocations to those in highest need, changed tenancy profile  Long-term structural trends are negative and these are the backdrop for housing policy reform

16. Part two Victoria: defining the problem

17. General supply and affordability Sources: Population change: Cat. 3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Sep 2014 Dwelling completions: Cat. 8752.0 - Building Activity, Australia, Sep 2013 Lot release: Residential Land Bulletin data Department of Transport, Planning and Local Infrastructure House price index: Cat. 6416.0 - Residential Property Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities, Dec 2014

18. Additions to demand and supply Average annualised per cent changes (Victoria) Rate of net additions to demand Rate of additions to supply Rate of price increase PopulationLot release Dwelling completions Established house prices (Melbourne) 5 years to March 2013 0.05.5 3.1 16 years to March 2013 6.74.44.08.0

19. Mortgage affordability

20. Shortages of affordable and available rental stock for low income households Victoria Source: 2011 Australian Census of Population and Housing data

21. Housing affordability stress rising in Melbourne Source: Hulse et al (2015) Tables 18, 19; customised data 1996, 2006 and 2011 Australian Census of Population and Housing data

22. State shares of homelessness, CRA recipients, and affordable housing compared to population

23. Victorian public housing supply static… but growth in community sector Source: Productivity Commission Report on Government Services Housing Attachments Table 17A.3 (Latest data to 30 June 2014)

24. Public housing waiting list for early housing has increased… Source: Department of Human Services (DHS).

25. Conclusion  Key housing problem in Victoria is lack of supply of dedicated affordable stock – public, community, NRAS, shared equity.  Increases in general land and housing supply necessary but not sufficient to address the key problem.  Targeted interventions to stimulate new supply of dedicated affordable housing are required.

26. Policy interventions for new supply of dedicated affordable housing a)Inclusionary zoning b)Tax credits (NRAS) c)Equity sharing (retain subsidy) d)Support social purpose entities (real estate agencies, developers, housing associations, financiers) e)Social housing reform to drive financial viability f)Government borrowing:  to build  to lend

27. References Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)  Census of Population and Housing (1981, 1991, 2001, 2011), including Estimating Homelessness 2011  Cat. 4130.0 Housing Occupancy and Costs 2011-12  Cat. 8752.0 Building Activity, Australia, Sep 2013  Cat. 3101.0 Australian Demographic Statistics, Sep 2014  Cat. 6416.0 Residential Property Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities, Dec 2014 (House price index)  Cat 4102.0 Australian Social Trends, Data Cube – Housing Burke, T, Stone W, and Ralston, L. (2014) Generational change in home purchase opportunity in Australia AHURI Final Report No. 232, November Department of Human Services (DHS) Waiting List data Department of Transport, Planning and Local Infrastructure Residential Land Bulletin (Residential lot release) http://www.dtpli.vic.gov.au/data-and- research/population/metropolitan/residential-land-bulletin

28. References (continued) Fox, R. and Findlay R. (2012) Dwelling Prices and Household Income in Reserve Bank Bulletin, December Quarter, Reserve Bank of Australia Hulse, K, Reynolds, M, Stone, W., and Yates J, (2015) Supply shortages and affordability outcomes in the private rental sector: short and longer term trends AHURI Final Report No. 241, June Productivity Commission (1996 - 2014) Report on Government Services Housing Chapter http://www.pc.gov.au/research/recurring/report-on- government-services/2015/housing-and-homelessness/housing Real Estate Institute of Victoria Rental Vacancy Rates http://reiv.com.au/Property-Research/Rental-Data/Vacancy-Rates Stone, W, Burke, T, Hulse K, and Ralston, L. (2013) Long-term private rental in a changing Australian private rental sector AHURI Final Report No. 209, July Wood, G, Smith S, Ong R, and Cigdem, M. (2013) The edges of home ownership AHURI Final Report No. 216, October.

29. Follow AHURI Twitter @AHURI_Research Facebook Search “AHURI” e-newsletters www.ahuri.edu.au/subscribe/