1. Outlook for developing country growth improved considerably in the last six months Outlook for developing country growth improved considerably in the last six months Momentum of global trade and production strong; financial and commodity markets varied Momentum of global trade and production strong; financial and commodity markets varied Developing country recovery unlikely to eclipse pre-crisis trends; prospects differ markedly across developing regions Developing country recovery unlikely to eclipse pre-crisis trends; prospects differ markedly across developing regions Global risks are more balanced (some up- side), but oil price a current concern Global risks are more balanced (some up- side), but oil price a current concern Key Messages

2. GDP Growth: Industrial and Developing Regions, 1995-2002 (percent) Source: World Bank baseline, March 2000. World OECD Developing Countries Forecast

3. GDP Growth: G-7 and Developing Countries ( percent year-over-year) Source: DECPG baseline (March 2000) and GEP (November 1999) G-7 countriesDeveloping countries

4. Per capita growth distribution by developing country population (percentage of developing country population excluding China, India) Source: DECPG baseline, March 2000 1.6 billion people 140 million people

5. Convergence of industrial country growth rates in the early 2000s (percent) Source: DECPG projections, March 2000. Notes: * North America: United States and Canada; ** Asia-Pacific: Japan, Australia and New Zealand. North America* Euro Area Asia-Pacific**

6. Volatility of Growth: 1983-99 Major economic areas Note: /1 regression of region growth rate on world growth rate. Source: Development Prospects Group

7. U.S. consumer, producer and import prices, 1997-2000 (3-month/3-month annualized change in percent ) Source: U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics. Producer prices CPI U.S. import prices

8. U.S. and Euro-Area short term interest rates, 1997-2000 ( percent ) Source: Datastream / Euro-stat.. U.S. 3-month CD rate Euro-area average 3 month money market Fed Funds

9. High-income countries’ import volume growth (percent, 3 month/3 month, saar) Source: Datastream and DECPG staff estimates. Asian NIEs OECD

10. World Trade: The Context for Developing Country Exports, 1995-2002 (percent) Source: DECPG baseline, March 2000. Forecast Developing exports OECD imports Developing imports

11. Oil and non-oil prices, 1992-2000 (US$/bbl for oil, index 1990=100 for others Source: DECPG, World Bank

12. Current Account Balances for Industrial Countries, 1995-2002 (percent of Industrial countries’ GDP) Source: DECPG, Baseline forecast, March 2000. G-7 Other Industrial OECD

13. Latin America East Asia Europe and Central Asia (Basis points) Regional secondary market spreads on international bond issues

14. Gross capital market flows as a ratio of GDP and spreads on EMBI Source: Euromoney, IMF, DECPG staff estimates Capital Market Flows/GDP EMBI Basis pointspercent

15. “Financial misery index” for selected emerging markets, June 1997- March 2000 (mean of percentage changes in currency, stock market, interest rate) Worse off Better off Source: DECPG

16. Industrial production: developing regions (3mma, %y/y) Note: Latest data Asia (December), CEE (Dec), Developing (Dec), LAC (Dec). Source: Datastream and DECPG staff estimates. CEE East Asia LAC All Developing

17. GDP Growth: East Asia, Latin America and the Transition Economies, 1995-2002 (percent) Source: World Bank baseline, March 2000. Transition Economies East Asia Latin America Forecast

18. GDP Growth: South Asia, MENA and Sub-Saharan Africa, 1995-2002 (percent) Source: World Bank baseline, March 2000. MENA South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Forecast

19. ... to a ‘soft landing’ in the United States... from fiscal stimulus to private-demand led growth in Japan... to healthier financial and corporate sectors in East Asia... to a medium-term equilibrium price of oil Global Risks: Four Transitions

20. High Oil price Scenario: GDP Growth for World Regions (difference (-) in growth rates from baseline) Source: DECPG. Simulation of $30/bbl in 2000, $25/bbl in 2001 (Oxford Economics) model. Results validated against simulations prepared by OECD, JP Morgan and other analysts.

21. Industrial countries’ import volume growth (percent, 3 month/3 month, saar) Source: Datastream and DECPG staff estimates. *Goods and services as compiled by Eurostat. Japan United States Europe*