1. Sugar Outlook February 2003 World Sugar

2. ISO Conference in Bali September 2002 Expectation of Continued Low Sugar Prices Production of 138-140mmt Consumption of 134 Stocks of 10 million

3. World Situation Increase Consumption Due to: Anticipation of Iraq Conflict Weakening Dollar Against European and Asian Currency

4. World Sugar Weekly

5. What Has Happened since? Brazil’s Situation in the Market Increased Export During Currency Devaluation Shortage of Alcohol Between Harvests Diminished Hedging/ Fixation in Anticipation in Alcohol Shortage

6. Brazilian/Real Daily

7. Crude Weekly

8. Economic Investment Scenario Increased Speculative Interest in Commodities Alternative Investment to Weak Stock Market Record Speculative Interest in Sugar

9. Commodity Research Bureau (CRB)

10. Largest Exporters Export/Production 1993/1994 Export/Production 2002/2003 Brazil2.847 / 10.11213.50 / 22.95 EU8.240 / 18.3994.820 / 14.50 Australia3.55 / 4.4934.235 / 5.928 Thailand2.801 / 4.0093.800 / 6.000 Cuba3.26 / 4.0232.850 / 3.600 South Africa.045 / 1.2661.300 / 2.725 Guatemala.933 / 1.1501.310 / 1.789 Colombia.624 / 1.8761.000 / 2.305 India.028 / 106251.000 / 2.305 Mexico.0 / 4.0108.50 / 5.305 Total22.33 / 59.9934.67 / 83.65

11. Brazil

12. Europe

13. Other Exporters

14. Largest Importers

15. Sugar Prices for May 1. Large spec position, vulnerable short (230.000) 2. Reduced availability from Brazil due to alcohol shortage 3. Faster loading rate of 3.000 tons a day/Cosan- 750 in 95/ Cooper 1.500 in 97 and 3.000 in 03 4. Russian Import needs with no noticeable import 5. Iraq conflict is longer and deeper than negative thought 1. Large Speculative position. Market overbought 2. Absence of Physical Interest 3. Large Inverse Attractive to Brazil for May 4. Early Harvest Because of Alcohol Shortage 5. Iraq conflict over shortly

16. Overview Speculative Position is Excessive and Has Inflated Prices at Least 10% Brazil Still has 50-70% of Their Crop to Fix. Or 110.000- 150.000 Contracts Russian Has Imports to Still do 3.00-3.50 Million Tons 60.000-70.000 Other Imports – Indonesia needed 600.000 Tones 12.000 Market is too high but when we are talking about a money management problem it is hard to pick a top