1. 09/20/2010 National Petroleum Council Future Transportation Fuels Study - Supply and Infrastructure Task Group Update September 20, 2010 Shariq Yosufzai 1

2. 09/20/2010 Supply And Infrastructure – Task Group Membership Shariq YosufzaiTG ChairChevron Corporation Carmen DifiglioTG Co-ChairDOE Joseph CaggianoTG Asst. ChairChevron Corporation Todd Werpy Chair, Biofuels Archer Daniels Midland Company Tom BinderAsst. Chair, BiofuelsArcher Daniels Midland Company Bill ReinertChair, Electricity Toyota Jaycie ChitwoodAsst Chair, ElectricityToyota Chris EricksonCSC MemberExxonMobil Corporation Gene TunisonAlt. CSC MemberExxonMobil Corporation Charlie Schleyer Co-Chair, HC LiquidExxonMobil Corporation Nick KarimCo-Chair, HC Liquid ExxonMobil Corporation Mike GallagherChair, Natural GasWestport Innovations Bruce HodginsAsst Chair, Natural GasWestport Innovations Allen TaubChair, Fuel/ VehicleGeneral Motors Britta GrossAsst. Chair, Fuel/VehicleGeneral Motors Craig BrewsterHeavy Duty VehiclesPaccar Dave RogersChair, Carbon GHGChevron Puneet Verma (acting)HydrogenChevron Severin BorensteinUniversity RepresentativeUC, Berkeley Theresa MaldonadoUniversity RepresentativeTexas A&M DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only

3. 09/20/2010 NPC Draft – Do Not Cite or Quote FEEDSTOCK / RAW MATERIALS FEEDSTOCK DISTRIBUTION CONVERSION / MANUFACTURING PRODUCT DISTRIBUTION FUELS Hydrocarbon Liquids Biofuels Natural Gas Electricity Hydrogen APPLICATION/ END USE Auto Truck Rail Water Air 31 2 Trace each fuel through baseline and alternative pathways along the supply chain under various assumptions about technology, volumes, infrastructure, unit costs, policy, etc. Connect supply inputs to end-use options Technology Passenger & Freight Demand Supply Chain / Systems Approach Engines/ Vehicles Identify fuel types

4. 09/20/2010 Work Streams and Scope 4 Evaluate supply forecasts and assumptions passenger and freight mobility through 2035/2050. Assess technology and technology investments to accelerate delivery and adoption of new fuel/vehicle systems. Analyze infrastructure requirements for fuel types and volumes under various conditions. Describe technology pathways and timelines for introducing various fuel options into the supply chain. Assess environmental impact, energy security and economic competitiveness implications of fuel/vehicle technology options. Analyze various supply situations and provide a framework for developing policy options. Biofuels Todd Werpy Archer Daniels Midland Hydrocarbon Liquids Natural Gas Electric Vehicles Hydrogen Fuels & Vehicle Characteristics Engines & Vehicles Carbon & GHG Emissions Heavy Duty Engines & Vehicles Nick Karim ExxonMobil Mike Gallagher Westport Innovations Bill Reinert Toyota Puneet Verma (acting) Chevron Mike Leister Marathon Alan Taub General Motors Craig Brewster Paccar Dave Rogers Chevron Sub Group Work Streams Scope

5. 09/20/2010 Supply and Infrastructure Task Group – Scope 5 Full supply chain for each fuel Current and projected infrastructures Fuel characteristics (Fuel Characteristics Team) Assessment of baseline supply projections through 2050 Alternative (accelerated) cases for transportation fuel supply through 2050 Non-US fuel supply Life cycle analysis Transport efficiency Integration of findings across fuel supply chains and engine/ vehicle systems

6. 09/20/2010 Progress since August S&I Task Group Meeting 6 3 new teams have been established and are progressing with recruitment, scoping and framing Carbon and GHG Emissions Hydrogen Heavy – Medium Duty Vehicles (as part of Vehicle/Engine Platforms) Scoping, framing and recruitment is near complete for all other subgroups Membership is diverse Teams are integrating with the Resources study team We have established AEO 2010 Reference Case as the starting point and subgroups are beginning their assessment of the base case

7. 09/20/2010 7 ActivityActual Date Identify interface points with NA Resources Study -- Confirm cross-study requirements -- Assign TG and subteam liaisons Sept 2010 Develop Supply & Infrastructure commentaries on base case Sept – October 31, 2010 Draft working outlinesSeptember 2010 Complete Base Case Commentaries Prepare commentaries for November 11/12 meetingOctober 31 st, 2010 November Task Group Meeting -- Review and Integrate Supply Assessments of the base case -- Develop initial supply & infrastructure findings re the base case November 11/12, 2010 Develop Alternative cases -- Per CSC guidance November - January January Task Group Meeting -- Review alternative cases; develop next set of findings based on alternativesMid-January 2011 Task Group – Projected 120-Day Timeline

8. 09/20/2010 8 DateTime (EST)Highlight Task Group Meetings Thur/Fri, Nov 11,121 ½ daySubgroup Updates, Review progress on the base case commentary and observation, Frame the deliverables and consider methods to develop alternative or accelerated cases, Identify requirements for developing study scenarios Mid-Jan1 ½ dayMid-January 2011 meeting (review alternative cases; develop next set of findings based on alternatives) Regular Check Ins/ Standing meetings Thursday1-3pm EST(2 hours) Status Updates, Alignment on Cross Cutting Issues, Best Practice Sharing (as part of the weekly SCS calls) Supply and Infrastructure Task Group - Calendar

9. 09/20/2010 Due Jan. 15Due Oct 31 Supply & Infrastructure Task Group Methodology 9 Recommendatio ns Base Case Accelerated Cases Integration Recommendations Identify the Alternatives Recommendations Report Generation Framing & Scoping Staffing Current Status Review Reference Case and Guidance Identify key assumptions and barriers Provide commentary on the Reference Case Identify additional Key Studies Conduct Technology Peer Review Ensure relevant framing questions addressed Identify “deltas” or potential gaps from base case Develop alternative views of the future from the “deltas” Develop views on how to accelerate improvement Ensure all framing questions are addressed Conduct Second Peer Review testing key technology assumptions and accelerations Identify the Alternatives Provide Guidance on major scenarios Apply CSC guidance on how to bound narrative on alternative views Identify key sequencing and barrier issues across the task and sub groups’ alternative views. Establish overall study alternative views. Due Early March

10. 09/20/2010 10 Supply & Infrastructure – Framing Questions DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only Supply Volumes and Types  What is the range of (volume)projections for U.S. transportation fuel supply through 2050 ?  What is the projected composition for the 2050 fuels portfolio?  What assumptions and drivers underlie different supply projections?  How will low-carbon fuels phase into and out of the supply portfolio? Technology Barriers and Pathways  What technologies are needed for transitioning to a low-carbon fuels portfolio?  What are the development pathways for these technologies?  Which fuel /engine synergies generate the greatest efficiency gains in 2050? Environment  What are the carbon issues and what are the options and trade-offs in managing these?  What land, water, and other environmental resource issues will impact future fuel supply? Infrastructure  What factors will accelerate the supply at scale of non-fossil fuels?  What infrastructure will be needed for the 2050 fuels portfolio?  How should gaps between the current and future fuels infrastructure be addressed?  What are the national and regional implications of the 2050 fuels portfolio and infrastructure?  What are the investment and financing requirements for a low-carbon fuels infrastructure? Policy  What changes to regulatory processes would accelerate development of new infrastructure Security  What are the energy security implications? What could disrupt the supply chain /infrastructure and what mitigations could be in place?

11. 09/20/2010 Supply & Infrastructure Task Group Diversity 11 GovernmentFuel Supply Sector Vehicle/Engine & Component Suppliers Public Interest Groups & Industry Associations Universities and Research Institutions Infrastructure & Investment Sector Others Dept of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory Energy Information Administration Argonne National Laboratory Sandia National Laboratory Dept of Transportation Joint Bio Energy Institute* Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Marathon Oil Archer Daniels Midland Valero Energy Royal Dutch Shell Anadarko BP Kinder Morgan EnCana Conoco Phillips Novozymes* Chevron Lubrizol ExxonMobil POET LS9* Gevo* Solazyme* Amyris* General Motors Toyota Cummins Wesport Wesport Innovations Coulomb Technologies Qualcomm A123 Systems Ford Honda* Paccar GS Chemical Air Products* Linde* VW* National Resources Defense Council Resources for the Future American Trucking Association Association of American Railroads Natural Gas Vehicles for America Rocky Mountain Institute* Research Triangle Institute Electric Power research Institute Energy policy Research Foundation Lux Research Harvard MIT UC Berkeley UC Davis Stanford U Texas Texas A&M Johns Hopkins* U of Utah* GA Tech Deutsche Bank Chesapeake Energy Southern California Edison Eaton Austin Energy ConEdison Accenture Monsanto DuPont O’Melveny and Meyers Air Products & Chemicals, Inc Gladstein AC Transit* * - Underway or Proposed DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only