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SCENARIO OF INDIAN CAPITAL MARKET WELCOME TO PRESENTATION ON 28 TH JUL.2013 K G KRUPAL AUTHOR, BROKER, COLUMNIST.

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Presentation on theme: "SCENARIO OF INDIAN CAPITAL MARKET WELCOME TO PRESENTATION ON 28 TH JUL.2013 K G KRUPAL AUTHOR, BROKER, COLUMNIST."— Presentation transcript:

1 SCENARIO OF INDIAN CAPITAL MARKET WELCOME TO PRESENTATION ON 28 TH JUL.2013 K G KRUPAL AUTHOR, BROKER, COLUMNIST

2 SENSEX MOVEMENT ON 26 TH JULY ‘13 High : 19,907, Low: 19,699 (208 points), Close: 19,748

3 DATESENSEX CHANGE FII FIGS. in Rs. Crs. DII FIGS. in Rs. Crs. 22/07/2013 +9.27 -406.20+299.85 23/07/2013+143.01+211.35 +60.86 24/07/2013 -211.45 -404.50-328.80 25/07/2013 -285.92 -442.94-138.80 26/07/2013 -56.57+278.04-489.17 TOTAL -401.66 -764.07 -596.06

4 INDICES INDEX

5 ALL TIME LOW BSE FMCG 7,600.05 (24 TH July ‘13) 705.66 (24 th Apr.’03) 7,600.05 (24 TH July ‘13) 7,279.11 BSE AUTO11,868.56 (10 TH Jan ‘13) 2,127.86 2 nd Dec’08 11,868.56 (10 TH Jan ‘13) 10,649.82 BSE METAL20.494.62 (4 TH Jan’08) 3,806.79 (27 th Oct.08) 11,510.14 (7 th Jan ‘13) 6,978.82 BSE IT8,678.00 (22 ND Feb ‘00) 835.02 (21 ST Sep ‘01) 7,306.73 (26 th July’ 12) 7,241.32 INDICES MAZIC

6 INVESTMENT Business performance Focus on value Understand company Rational approach Depends on analysis value of analysis diminishes, as element of chance increases Business performance Focus on value Understand company Rational approach Depends on analysis value of analysis diminishes, as element of chance increases

7 SPECULATION Price performance Focus on price Rely on information Fashionable approach Depends on chance Speculator react to prices. Investor react to fundamentals Price performance Focus on price Rely on information Fashionable approach Depends on chance Speculator react to prices. Investor react to fundamentals

8 GLOBAL FINANCIAL LITERACY BAROMETER (12/06/12) COUNTRYRANKINGFINANCIAL LITERATE POPULATION BRAZIL 150.4% MEXICO 247.8% AUSTRALIA 346.3% UNITED STATES 444.6% INDIA2335% SOUTH AFRICA2534% PAKISTHAN2827.3%

9 IT ESTIMATES FUTURE VALUE ON SPECIFIC DEVELOPMENTS. FUTURE EVENTS PERCOLATES INTO PRESENT VALUES. IT DISCOUNTS FUTURE AND NEGLECTS, WHEN FUTURE TURNS PRESENT. MOVES EITHER WAY IN LIGHTENING SPEED. PROVIDING liquidity is the prime plus point of this market. IT ESTIMATES FUTURE VALUE ON SPECIFIC DEVELOPMENTS. FUTURE EVENTS PERCOLATES INTO PRESENT VALUES. IT DISCOUNTS FUTURE AND NEGLECTS, WHEN FUTURE TURNS PRESENT. MOVES EITHER WAY IN LIGHTENING SPEED. PROVIDING liquidity is the prime plus point of this market.

10 BROKERS & SUB-BROKERS 10,203 10,268 9,643 83,808 77,141 69,335 FIGURES FOR 2010-11, 2011-12 & 2012-13 (UPTO May. 2013)

11

12 Shares which are trading @ below the book value, high dividend yield, low P/E multiple, low price to book value, or quotation is below the intrinsic value are value stocks.

13 1. Demand and Supply 2. Corporate development --general & specific 3. Govt. policies & its impact 4. Developments affecting country’s economy 5. Index changes and price variation in global markets. 6. F I Is and M.F.s activities. 7. Change in promoters stake. 8. Settlements and outstandings in F & O. 9. Raising of funds, issue of ADR/GDR/FCCBS. 10. Media highlights, both print and electronic.

14 CAPITAL MARKET IS SUPER SENSITIVE AND BECAUSE OF ITS NATURE THE NAME SENSITIVE INDEX (SENSEX) IS ARRIVED. MONSOON FACTOR, ECONOMIC FACTORS LIKE INDUSTRIAL GROWTH, EXPORTS & IMPORTS, INFLATION, BANKING REGULATORY ACTIONS SUCH AS CRR, REPO, REVERSE REPO RATE CHANGE ETC. REGULATORY ACTIONS AGAINST MARKET, COMPANIES, CHANGE IN POLICIES OF GOVT.

15 COPORATE BENEFITS SUCH AS BONUS, RIGHTS, DIVIDEND ACTIONS LIKE STOCK SPLIT, NAME CHANGE, CONSOLIDATION, STAKE SALE OR CHANGE, BUSINESS AGREEMENTS, MERGER & AMALGAMATION, PLEDGING & RELEASE OF SHARES BY MANAGEMENTS

16 Greediness Weakness Hasty decisions Ignorance

17 THREATS Losing capital Returns Risk Loss of liquidity

18 STRENGTHS Be informed before invest Keep cool & balanced mind for market variations Restrict operations for making reasonable profit

19 OPPURUNITIES Capital appreciationCorporate benefits

20 Sensitivity barometer of the market which shows the mood and trend of the investors. Sensex has become a brand of the Indian Capital Market. Because of the heavy monetary flood from local and foreign funds sensex has touched all time high of 21,206.77 on 10.01.08. With market capitalisation of Rs.71,41,611 Crores, there are only 30 shares in the Sensex PRESENT MARKET CAP : Rs.64.34 lac Crs. On 26 th July13

21 COMPN 31/12/02 15/1/04 1/04/05 31/03/06 30/03/0722/10/1026/07/13 SENX33766219650611325130182016519,748 ACC1652593647827349841,210 BHEL172561802224622602533158(2) HDFC35864471613361520277(2)805 ICICI B 1402994055898531131932 TISCO151442409536449617218 TELCO4894349327271152289(2)

22 SENSEX MOVEMENTS

23 TATA STEEL -FPO ALLOTED 83,25000 SHARES TO ANCHOR INVESTORS @ Rs.610 IN Jan.11 17 ALLOTEES NAME OF INSTITUTIONNO. OF SHARES FID FUNDS(MARS)3,20,620 NOMURA (MARS)2,56,500 MACQUARIE BANK1,92,370 CREDIT SUISSE(SING) 1,60,310 MONETARY AUTHO(SING)1,68,360 GOVT.OF SINGAPORE3,81,480 MORGAN STANLY (MARS)4,55,290 BAJAJ ALIANCE LIC6,41,250

24 AANJANEYA LIFE CARE LTD JUNE 12 52.4% SEPT 12 87.70% DEC.12 94.40% PLEDGE OF PROMOTER’S STAKE

25 COAL INDIA LISTING LISTED ON 4/11/10 ISSUED @Rs.245 P.S.

26 TTK PRESTIGE: CALLS BY BROKING FIRMRECOMMEND CLSASELL ESPIRITO SANTONEUTRAL JEFFRIESBUY KARVY STOCK BROKINGSELL AMBIT CAPITALBUY ELARA SECURITIESREDUCE J M FINANCIALSHOLD IDBI CAPITALREDUCE Source; ET Dtd 16 th OCT BROKERAGES ACTIONTARGET PRICE DOWNGRADERs.3,000 DOWNGRADE 3,500 MAINTAIN 3,981 DOWNGRADE 2,507 MAINTAIN 4,020 DOWNGRADE 3,120 DOWNGRADE 3,176 DOWNGRADE 3,019 WHO IS RIGHT

27 HIND.UNILEVER LTD : CALLS BY BROKERAGE FIRMS KOTAK SECURITIES AMBIT CAPITAL STANDARD CHARTERED AXIS CAPITAL NOMURA JP MORGAN MOTILAL OSWAL PHILLIPS SECURTIES IIFL CREDIT SUISSE BROKERAGES RECOMMENDTARGET PRICE REDUCE530.00 SELL503.00 IN LINE547.00 SELL504.00 REDUCE535.00 NEUTRAL550.00 NEUTRAL500.00 SELL507.00 REDUCE507.00 REDUCE541.00 SOURCE: ET dtd---:17/07/13 WHO IS RIGHT

28 DIVESTMENT DAMAGE NAME OF COMPANYISSUE RATECURRENT MP Hind. Copper (2012)155.00 56.10 N M D C148.50104.20 SAIL63.00 43.65 NTPC145.00141.25 NALCO40.00 29.20 RCF45.00 30.25 OIL INDIA520.00533.05 MMTC60.00 48.75 HIND COPPER (2013)70.00 56.10

29 LICs INVESTMENTS AS ON 31 ST MAR 2013 NAME OF THE COMPANY % OF HOLDING CORPORATION BANK 24.69% LARSEN & TOUBRO 16.45% TATA STEEL 14.98% SHIPPING CORPORATION 14.13% TATA POWER 12.90% ITC 12.17% HINDALCO 10.93% KESORAM INDUSTRIES 10.90% MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA 10.62% GITANJALI GEMS 4.89% (30 TH June 2013)

30 M M T C MOVEMENTS 6 MONTHS CHART Rs.48.75

31 MMTC – 1 MONTH GRAPH(28 TH MAR 13) GOVT. 99.33%, DIIs 0.5%, OTHERS 0.17%

32 GITANJALI GEMS 3Months chart

33 CANARA BANK 6 MONTS CHART HIGH: 550 (14 TH Jan 13) LOW: 261(26 TH Jul.13) Rs.269.10

34 TITAN INDUSTRIES 3MONTHS CHART

35 APOLLO TYRES LTD 3 MONTHS Rs.68.30

36 KARNATAKA BANK PRICE MOVEMENT IN BSE ON 21ST JUNE 2013

37 AANJANEYA LIFECARE 1YEAR

38 ZYLOG SYSTEMS LTD 1YEAR

39

40 WEALTH DESTROYERS

41 SIP INVESTMENTS IN EQUITY

42 YEAR EQUITY DEBT TOTAL 2008-09 + 6,985 +81,803 88,787 2009-10 - 10,512 +1,80.588 1,70,076 2010-11 - 19,802 +2,49,153 2,29,352 2011-12 - 1,358 +3,34.820 3,33,463 2012-13 - 22,749 +4,73,460 4,50,711 APRIL 13 -1,423 +51,822 50.432

43 ALL TIME HIGH RATES OF REAL ESTATE COMPANIES ON 26/07/13

44 CHANGES- COMPARISION  EARLIER -- NO MARKET REGULATOR, MINDS WERE SELF REGULATED.  NOW -- MARKETS ARE FULLY REGULATED, MINDS TO BE REGULATED.  EARLIER --RUPEE WAS COSTLIER, ASSETS WERE CHEEPER.  NOW -- RUPEE IS CHEEPER, ASSETS ARE COSTLIER.  EARLIER -- NO MARKET REGULATOR, MINDS WERE SELF REGULATED.  NOW -- MARKETS ARE FULLY REGULATED, MINDS TO BE REGULATED.  EARLIER --RUPEE WAS COSTLIER, ASSETS WERE CHEEPER.  NOW -- RUPEE IS CHEEPER, ASSETS ARE COSTLIER.

45  TIPS & NEWS FROM SMS, FOCUS ON TOPLINE LINKED TO BOTTOM LINE. THINK BEFORE YIELDING TO UNLIMITED TURNOVER FACILITY WITH A LIMITED FEES AVOID TEMPTATION BASED ON HIGH TURNOVER IN SCRIPS. TIPS & NEWS FROM SMS, FOCUS ON TOPLINE LINKED TO BOTTOM LINE. THINK BEFORE YIELDING TO UNLIMITED TURNOVER FACILITY WITH A LIMITED FEES AVOID TEMPTATION BASED ON HIGH TURNOVER IN SCRIPS.

46  Assess the market Price behavior Combine fundamental and technical analysis Develop sound strategies for growth stocks Beware of operators’ game play Take Swift corrective action i.e. keep stop loss Take disciplined decision Assess the market Price behavior Combine fundamental and technical analysis Develop sound strategies for growth stocks Beware of operators’ game play Take Swift corrective action i.e. keep stop loss Take disciplined decision

47 SHORT TERM, i.e. within one year, profits are taxed @ 15% FROM 2008-09 LONG TERM, i.e. held for more than one year, there is no tax on the profits. Dividends are totally tax free. Trading profits are taxed as normal income at the applicable slab. SHORT TERM, i.e. within one year, profits are taxed @ 15% FROM 2008-09 LONG TERM, i.e. held for more than one year, there is no tax on the profits. Dividends are totally tax free. Trading profits are taxed as normal income at the applicable slab.

48 SUCCESS MANTRA TO BE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR THINK PROFIT IN TUNE WITH DHIRUBAI AMBANI MANTRA THINK BIG

49 SUCCESS MANTRA

50 SHARE BUSINESS PROFIT = E F E P = ENTRY ON FUNDAMENTALS EXIT FOR PROFIT (NO CONDITIONS APPLY)

51 Internet – www.sebi.gov.in www.bseindia.com & www.nseindia.comwww.bseindia.comwww.nseindia.com www.nsdl.com &www.nsdl.com www.bgse.co.in & www.bfsl.co.inwww.bgse.co.inwww.bfsl.co.in Companies websites Company reports- Offer documents/ Prospectus Annual/Half yearly/Quarterly reports Stock Exchange’s Information centre Broker’s Offices & Media- Print and Electronic

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