1. Application of Extended Range Forecast for Climate Risk Management on crops in Coastal and Western Agro-ecosystems of Tamil Nadu Dr. V. Geethalakshmi Professor Agro Climate Research Centre Tamil Nadu Agricultural University Coimbatore

2. Objectives To assess past climate anomalies, pattern and their impacts on agriculture with reference to extreme weather events. To establish a system to provide climate information on time to selected locations for climate risk management in agriculture. To train the target groups on the application of extended range weather forecast on farm decision making to reduce the climatic risks Feed back analysis for refinement and improvement of the forecast and application of forecast information on decision making Development of decision support system

3. Location Map of Study area

4. Normal Rainfall & Temperature of Study region

5. NW Z NE Z CD Z WZ HR Z HZ SZ Extreme weather events – 2007 & 2008 Rf : Oct 23 rd, 2007: 107.5 mm Drought : SWM, 2008: -32 % of LPA Excess rainfall October 07 : 178 % of LPA (358 mm against 200 mm) December 07 : 231 % LPA (371 mm against 160 mm) March 08, : 220 % of LPA (160 mm against 50 mm) Drought April 08: - 83% of LPA (8.4 mm against 50 mm) July 08: - 96 % of LPA (4.4 against 109 mm)

6. Choice of Crops Upland Irrigated cotton - Coimbatore Lowland Rice - Nagapattinam Irrigated Groundnut – Nagapattinam Rainfed maize - Coimbatore

7. CropSeasonJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec Riceshort duration medium duration MaizePurattasi pattam cottonWinter groundnutThai pattam Adi pattam Cropping calendar Sowing/EstablishmentVegetativeFloweringMaturityHarvest

8. Progress made so far Village Selected: –Cotton : Avinashi, Coimbatore –Maize : Pollachi, Coimbatore –Rice : P.R.Puram, Nagapattinam –Groundnut : Vettaikaran iruppu, Nagapattinam Farmers selection : in progress. Collection of weather data & Crop Yield data (1970 – 2000) Assessing the past climate anomalies, pattern and their impacts on agriculture : In Progress

9. Past Experience ENSO based SCF and Farm Decision making Economic Impact Analysis Project Experimental Agromet Advisory Services Weather based forewarning of Downy Mildew – ICAR funded project

13. Weather Summary (Observed and Predicted)– Banana (2005) StageOperationWeatherPredictionImpact Establishment (March) Fertilizer application Rainfall45mm forecasted 2.0 mm received Low nutrient use efficiency Vegetative (April – May) Intercultural operation Rainfall60 mm forecasted 77.2 mm received Helped in planning intercultural operations Flowering (July-August) ProppingWind speed July : 10.2 KMPH -10.6 KMPH Aug : 10.1 KMPH - 9.3 KMPH Correct wind speed forecast helped in giving propping recommendation and saved the crops from lodging.

14. Weather Summary (Observed and Predicted)– Tomato 2005 StageOperationWeatherPredictionImpact Entire crop growth period (June - October) IrrigationRainfallAugust and October well predicted. June, July, September – Under predicted Helped in saving irrigation water. Interfered with irrigation planning Vegetative (July-August) Plant protection RainfallOccurrence predicted well Helped in plant protection decision making TemperatureIncrease in temperature well predicted. Correct temperature forecasts helped in controlling the sucking pest. Wind speedCorrectly predicted Helped in scheduling the spraying operation Maturity (September- October) DrainageRainfallHeavy rainfall well predicted Helped in reducing the yield loss. HarvestingRainfallHeavy rainfall well predicted Harvest of even half ripped fruits were recommended to avoid fruit damage

15. Economic Impact of AAS on manures and fertilizers AAS farmers used lesser FYM in 2004 and 2005 (4.5 %) But more in 2006 (10 %) AAS- used less fertilizer 2004 – 13.6 % - Rs. 466 2005 – 15 % - Rs. 77 AAS- used more fertilizer 2006 – 9 % - Rs. 247 No difference in FYM usage AAS- used more fertilizer 2004 – 26.5 % - Rs. 1673 2005 – 29.1 % - Rs. 2106 2006 – 15.2 % - Rs. 1210 AAS farmers used lesser FYM (7.5 %) AAS- used less fertilizer 2004 – 11.7 % - Rs. 256 2005 – 14 % - Rs. 72 AAS- used more fertilizer 2006 – 4.3 % - Rs. 68 Tomato & Cotton - Well Distributed rainfall during flowering and fruiting in 2006

16. Economic Impact of AAS on Pesticide usage AAS farmers used lesser plant protection chemical Saving 2004 – Rs. 76 2005 – Rs. 92 2006 – Rs. 71 AAS- spent more on plant protection chemicals 2004 – Rs. 44 2006 – Rs. 145 AAS farmers used lesser plant protection chemicals Saving 2004 – Rs. 94 2005 – Rs. 168 2006 – Rs. 297 Weather based pest and disease management Furadon sucker treatment

17. Economic Impact of AAS on Labour usage Saving of 2 Men labour on irrigation One labour more for fertilizer application Four labour more for intercultural operation Saving of 2 men labours on irrigation Saving of 1 labour on fertilizer application Saving of 5 – 8 labours on intercultural operations More labour for harvest Weather based operations and labour management Saving of 1- 2 men labours on irrigation Saving of 1 men labour on fertilizer application Saving of 2 men & 2 women labours on pesticide application More labour for harvest

18. Irrigation water saving - 2004 CropAASNon-AASNo. of irrigations saved Quantity of irrigation water saved Saving in terms of money Banana7 – 8 irrigations Saving of one irrigation on 03.08.2004 Saving of one irrigation on 14.09.2004 Saving of one irrigation on 24.09. 2004. 9 – 10 irrigations were given 2-3 irrigation saved. 450 m 3 Rs. 7440 (6750 + 240 + 450) Tomato7 – 8 irrigations Saving of one irrigation on 03.08.2004 Saving of one irrigation on 14.09.2004 Saving of one irrigation on 24.09. 2004. 9 – 10 irrigations were given 2-3 irrigation saved. 450 m 3 Rs. 7440 (6750 + 240 + 450) Cotton8 irrigations Saving of one irrigation on 03.08.2004 Saving of one irrigation on 14.09.2004 Saving of one irrigation on 24.09. 2004. 10 irrigations were given 2 irrigation saved. 300 m 3 Rs. 4960 (Water cost :4500 + Labour : 160 + Fuel: 300)

19. 1.Marginal saving on seed material 2.No difference in FYM usage 3.AAS farmers used more fertilizers (15.2 % to 29.7%) 4.AAS farmers spent more on plant protection chemicals 5.Saving of 2 Men labour on irrigation 6.One labour more for fertilizer application 7.Four labour more for intercultural operation Input Usage by farmers - Banana

20. 1.AAS farmers used more seed materials 2.AAS farmers used lesser FYM (7.5 %) 3.AAS- used less fertilizer : 2004 – 11.7 % - Rs. 256 2005 – 14 % - Rs. 72 AAS- used more fertilizer : 2006 – 4.3 % - Rs. 68 4. AAS farmers used lesser plant protection chemical 5.Saving of 2 men labours on irrigation Saving of 1 labour on fertilizer application Saving of 5 – 8 labours on intercultural operations More labour for harvest Input Usage by farmers - Tomato

21. Input Usage by farmers - Cotton 1.Marginal saving on seed material 2.AAS farmers used lesser FYM (7.5 %) AAS- used less fertilizer : 2004 – 11.7 % - Rs. 256 2005 – 14 % - Rs. 72 AAS- used more fertilizer : 2006 – 4.3 % - Rs. 68 3. AAS farmers used lesser plant protection chemicals 4. Saving of 1- 2 men labours on irrigation Saving of 1 men labour on fertilizer application Saving of 2 men & 2 women labours on pesticide application. More labour for harvest

22. Use of AAS bulletin on increase in yield (Qts/ac) - Banana Farmer category 2004 2005 AASNon% Diff AA S Non% Diff Marginal *194**155* Small 217186 31 (16.9%) 175152 23.2 (15.3%) Medium 213201 12.1 (6.0%) 172161 11.7 (7.3%) Large 204201 3.1 (1.5%) 165161 4.3 (2.7%) Overall 212195 16.9 (8.7%) 172158 14.2 (9.0%)

23. Use of AAS bulletin on increase in yield (Qts/ac) - Tomato Farmer category 2004 20052006 AASNon% DiffAASNon% DiffAASNon% Diff Marginal 123118 4.4 (1.2%) 112100 12 (12%) 123106 17 (16%) Small 127101 25.5 (25.7%) 11299 13 (13%) 124119 5 (4%) Medium 136118 18 (15.2%) 122101 22 (22%) 136113 23 (20.3%) Large 11194 17 (21.9%) 10481 23 (29%) 112110 2 (2%) Overall 129110 19 (17.2%) 11199 12 (12%) 123112 13 (10.4%)

24. Use of AAS bulletin on increase in yield (Qts/ac) - Cotton Farmer category 2004 2005 AASNon% DiffAASNon% Diff Marginal 6.96.4 0.5 (7.8%) 8.37.9 0.4 (5.2%) Small 7.56.2 1.3 (20.9%) 8.27.6 0.6 (8.5%) Medium 6.66.0 0.6 (10%) 8.57.8 0.7 (8.7%) Large *7.0**7.8* Overall 7.26.2 1.0 (16.1%) 8.37.7 0.6 (7.8%)

25. Gross Return - Banana Farmer category 2004 2005 AASNon% DiffAASNon% Diff Marginal *126175**72835* Small 140816118790 22026 (18.5%) 8209076956 5134 (6.7%) Medium 123455113120 10335 (9.1%) 8502481742 3282 (4.0%) Large 118495102892 15602 (15.2%) 8018774865 5322 (7.1%) Overall 127549114227 13322 (11.6%) 8243476000 5834 (7.6%)

26. Gross Return - Tomato Farmer category 2004 20052006 AASNon% DiffAASNon% DiffAASNon% Diff Marginal 7984584320 -4475 (-5.3%) 7416067100 7060 (10.5%) 8556261965 23597 (%) Small 8510569138 15967 (23.1%) 7508462544 12540 (20%) 7690757962 18944 (%) Medium 9071781626 9091 (11.1%) 7390970159 3750 (5.3%) 8104370399 10644 (%) Large 6680056400 10400 (18.4%) 6562558629 6996 (11.9%) 5408383170 -29086 (%) Overall 8578173982 11799 (15.9%) 7421468078 6136 (9.0%) 7861069280(%)

27. Gross Return - Cotton Farmer category 2004 2005 AASNon% DiffAASNon% Diff Marginal 1477617221 2445 (-14.1%) 1599015107 883 (8.9%) Small 1614616417 -271 (-1.6%) 1601014212 1798 (13%) Medium 1452615735 -1209 (-7.6%) 1628714639 1648 (11.3%) Large *18900 * *12467 * Overall 1554316352 -809 (-4.9%) 1602814359 1669 (11.6%)

28. Cost of Cultivation - Banana Farme r catego ry 2004 2005 AASNon% DiffAASNon% Diff Margi nal *12311**29704* Small 1597915196 783 (%) 3241031728 682 (2.1%) Mediu m 1610014760 1339 (%) 3388430515 3369 (9.9%) Large 1784612480 5005 (%) 3341032476 933 (2.8%) Overa ll 1664113686 6468 (%) 3336131131 2230 (6.7%)

29. Cost of Cultivation - Tomato Farmer category 2004 20052006 AASNon% DiffAASNon% DiffAASNon% Diff Marginal 1285214346 -1495 (-10.4) 1602817219 -1191 (-6.9%) 1940020520 -1120 (-5.4%) Small 1298513899 -915 (-6.5%) 1490116428 -1526 (%) 1820419053 -849 (-4.4%) Medium 1454213407 1135 (8.4%) 1533616587 -1251 (-7.5%) 1835717212 1145 10.9-%) Large 1357711555 2022 (17.4%) 1492415851 -927 (5.8%) 1765015910 1740 (10.9%) Overall 1347213331 142 (1.1%) 1523816508 -1270 (-7.7) 1840218173 229 (1.3%)

30. Cost of Cultivation - Cotton Farmer category 2004 2005 AASNon% DiffAASNon% Diff Marginal 1041512762 -2347 (-18.3%) 87428843 -102 (-11%) Small 1078612476 -1690 (-13.5%) 84789166 -688 (-7.5%) Medium 1035911785 -1426 (-12.1%) 91909319 -129 (-1.3%) Large *12234**9667* Overall 1062412275 -1651 (-13.5%) 86299202 -573 (-15%)

31. Net Return - Banana Farmer category 2004 2005 AASNon% DiffAASNon% Diff Marginal *113864**43131* Small 124867103594 21243 (20.5%) 4968045228 4452 (9.8%) Medium 10735598359 8996 (9.1%) 5114051228 -88 (3.5%) Large 10100990413 10597 (11.7%) 4677742389 4388 (10.4%) Overall 111212104358 6854 (6.6%) 4919947861 3705 (8.1%)

32. Net Return - Tomato Farmer category 2004 20052006 AASNon% DiffAASNon% DiffAASNon% Diff Marginal 6699369974 7622 (-4.2%) 5813249881 8251 (16.5%) 6616241445 24718 (%) Small 7212155239 16882 (30.5%) 6018247646 12536 (26.3%) 58702410912 17611 (%) Medium 7617568220 7955 (11.6%) 5857353572 5001 (9.3%) 6268653187 9499 (%) Large 5322344845 8378 (18.7%) 5070142778 7923 (18.5%) 36433467260 8251 (16.5%) Overall 7230960651 11658 (19.2%) 5897551569 7406 (14.4%) 6021651019 9196 (%)

33. Net Return - Cotton Farmer category 2004 2005 AASNon% DiffAASNon% Diff Marginal 43624460 -98 (-2.9%) 70266597 429 (6.5%) Small 53603940 1420 (36%) 73156529 786 (12%) Medium 41683950 218 (5.5%) 55245158 365 (7.0%) Large *6666 * *6100 * Overall 49194077 842 (20.6%) 70596102 957 (15.6%)

34. Banana (More investment – More return) Additional cost (Rs./ac) Yield increase (q/ac) Additional income (Rs./ac) Monitory benefit (Rs./ac) 169916.9101408441 Cotton (More investment – More return) Farmers Category Added cost (Rs./ac) Yield increase (q/ac) Additional income (Rs./ac) Monitory benefit (Rs./ac) Marginal2810.51100819 Small1711.328602689

35. Saving cost (Rs./ac) Yield Increase (q/ac) Increased income (Rs./ac) Monitory gain (Rs./ac) 3860.715401926 Tomato (Less investment – More return) Farmers Category Reduced cost (Rs./ac) Yield increase (q/ac) Additional income (Rs./ac) Monitory benefit (Rs./ac) Marginal39314.6963610029 Small4021.91445414494 Medium4159.965346949 Average28315.51020810491 Cotton -Medium farmers (Less investment – More return)

36. Tomato -large farmers (More investment – Less return) Additional cost (Rs./ac) Yield reduction (q/ac) Reduced income (Rs./ac) Monitory loss (Rs./ac) 17396.036005339 Conclusion Tomato – More sensitive to weather Weather forecast helped in monitory gain up to Rs. 15000 /ac