1. Meteorological Forecast Inputs for the Western Weather Work Group Alan Fox Fox Weather, LLC Fortuna, California, USA August 8, 2014

2. Items to be Mentioned MtnRT System Overview Implementing MtnRT: PNW, California, Arizona, Mexico, SW Plains Forecast support for IPPC Other Fox Weather Products (Rain Fcsts) Fox MtnRT Forecast Verifications (Rain, Tmin for Frost. Some NDFD Forecast Verifications and Considerations IPPC Forecasts with MtnRT and NDFD grids (MyPestPage) PRISM for MtnRT forecasts Virtual Estimation (IPPC’s method) versus measured in and near canopy (Temperature). Latest PRISM Datasets

3. MtnRT® Overview MtnRT accepts Fox Weather’s WRF data for inputs, then recalculates to a local scale to produce customized products. MtnRT is not a simple downscaling utility. MtnRT simulates decisions of a human forecaster and recalculates a finer scale forecast and produces innovative products. WRF and MtnRT work together: – WRF provides the setup (or ‘first guess’) – MtnRT provides targeted “punch” (or fine-tuned forecast) Products include: – Text Report: 1 hour forecast-interval through 168 hours Rain, Snow, RH, Wind Dir/Speed, LW, Dewpt,Temperature Other custom parameters – 7 Day Maps Matrix (4 for each day, day0-day6, inclusive).

4. MtnRT is implemented for many different regions in the western U.S. SW Great Plains, and Mexico Temperature (degrF Rain (inches)

5. Gridded (1 km) Leafwetness Forecast: 1 hour increment for five 24 hour periods for input to OSU/IPPC This work was supported by the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grants Program No. 2010-85605-2054 from the National Institute of Food and Agriculture. This was one of the four gridded forecast regions funded by AFRI and CDFA Grants in 2010 Region: Sonoma County to Sacramento, CA

6. Text Forecast Input for IPPC Models feet

7. Some Other Current Work Primary MtnRT-related work at this time is in forecasting for Quantitative Precipitation (QPF) and other agricultural work outside of our work with IPPC. For our QPF services, we developed an interactive display: – (1) Web site showing our current QPF images for selected gridded forecast domains, – (2) Formatted images for display on a GIS display system. – (2) A web services interface wherein our QPFs can be displayed on a Google-Maps interface. We are developing our web services interface so that model output images in our system (ref: (1) above) can be specified and run from remote web pages, such as a county flood warning system or a Cooperative Extension web site. ======================================================= Forecast Verifications The next several slides deal with forecast verification of Rain and Temperature.

8. Santa Cruz County raingauge 1hr rains from two stations:.45 to.56 at 1500, 1600, 1800 PST are close to the.55 inch indicated at Scott Creek, and Ben Lomond RAWS for 1900 and 2000 PST (3-4 hour time difference).MtnRT forecast was initialized at 1600 PST 25 Feb (00z 26 Feb). Rain Forecast Example Feb 26, 2014 Santa Cruz Co Scott Creek Fcstd.53 Obsv.46 Ben Lomond Fcstd.55 Obsv.56

9. Reference: Santa Cruz County Department of Public Works 701 Ocean Street, Room 410 Santa Cruz, CA 95060 Website: http://www.dpw.co.santa-cruz.ca.us/ Raingauge 1 hour rainfall from three mountain stations in the western Santa Cruz Mountains. February 26, 2014 – Upslope enhancement in sub-tropical rains. Heavy rains in foothills but light rains in the valleys. Ben Lomond Scott Creek

10. Ref: Fox, A., 2011, 2014: MtnRT® White Paper. Forecasted versus Observed Rainfall – San Gabriel Mountains Sub-tropical rain event – Dec 19-23, 2010 Forecasted 90 hours out

11. Ref: Fox, A., 2014: MtnRT® White Paper. FORECAST VERIFICATIONS TMIN FOR FROST FORECASTS MtnRT® and NDFD

12. Ref: Fox, A., 2014: MtnRT® White Paper. Forecast Verifications for Tmin during Frost Seasons 2012 and 2013 in the northern Russian River region. Comparison with the NDFD Tmins is also shown, with statistical analysis of performance.

13. 1.NWS spatial display of weather apparently at 2.5 km resolution 2.Experimental version of NDFD display 3.These biases were not related to rain. 4.Are the inconsistencies due to biases introduced by differences in the forecast between WFOs? They appear to follow geopolitical boundaries. Spatial NDFD Forecast – Temperature valid at 1100 PST 8/4/2014

14. Spatial NDFD Forecast – 6 hour rain ending 11am PST 8/4/2014 Predicted pattern of rain does not explain the temperature patterns In previous slide.

15. IPPC uses MtnRT in localized areas where terrain has a significant effect on wind speed, e.g. Hood River, OR, where the NWS NDFD forecast is less accurate. IPPC uses MtnRT as the forecast engine, where they have implemented it in the western U.S., and NWS NDFD in other areas of the U.S. where MtnRT is not currently available. The next slide shows an example of the IPPC website (My Pest Page) at Credits: Leonard Coop, IPPC/Oregon State Univ. http://uspest.org/risk/models This project was supported by the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grants Program No. 2010-85605-2054 from the National Institute of Food and Agriculture IPPC’s Use of MtnRT and NDFD: “My Pest Page”

16. Boonville shares both coastal and inland climate regimes

17. Virtual Weather Station temperature version 2.0 (V2) estimates compared to measured at two elevations in Hyslop,OR hop yard, June 17-23, 2010 and Mar 1-7, 2011 Ref: David Gent, ARS/USDA

18. Comparing Estimated “V2” data with actual at different elevations in plant canopy The previous slide shows an example of in-canopy temperature data collected in a hop yard at two heights, 1.5 m, and near the top of the trellis at 4.5 m during the 2010 and 2011 seasons. Temperature estimates by version 2.0 (V2) estimation procedure were generally within 1 degree C. Performance was most notably affected in low temperature (Tmin) estimation. The V2 estimation procedure tends to overestimate the daily Tmin, which can influence RH, dew point, and LW calculation. The importance of these differences for disease forecasting vary depending on the sensitivity of the disease model and time of year. Effects of the V2 weather estimates, or forecasted weather, on performance of disease predictions, our finding is that the importance of errors depends heavily on the specific model. Simple models that rely on a few threshold rules tend to be more sensitive to weather input errors than more complex models where the weather inputs are treated as a continuous variable rather than binary (yes/no) input. Models having wetness variables as inputs also tend to be more seriously affected than those that rely solely or primarily on temperature, the powdery mildew indices being examples of the latter. Ref: David Gent, ARS/USDA (updated 2014)

19. Differences between a MtnRT forecast of Tmin (degF) (a) with PRISM delta correction, (b) without. (a)MtnRT Point temperatures: 1) 29, 2) 39, 3) 44 4) Boonville RAWS obsv 35.0, adj fcst 36.0 (b)MtnRT Point temperatures: 1)31, 2) 43, 3) 43, 4) obsvd 35.0, unadj fcst 41 MtnRT® Forecast of Minimum Temperature For Frost 17 Feb 2014 Including PRISM with MtnRT® provides: 1.Better resolution down to crop scale 2.Using MtnRT and PRISM together provides better specificity to the forecast of Tmin. Ref: Fox Weather, LLC

20. Core PRISM Datasets 800-m and 4-km grids, CONUS Monthly and annual normals - TMAX, TMIN, PPT 1981-2010 averages Monthly time series - TMAX, TMIN, PPT, TDEW January 1895 – present, updated monthly Daily time series - TMAX, TMIN, PPT 1 January 1981 – present, updated daily Ref: Christopher Daly, 2014

21. Reference List: MtnRT work with IPPC/OSU + WWWG Publications Johnson, D.A., T.F. Cummings, A.D. Fox, J.R. Alldredge, 2014: Accuracy of rain forecasts for inclusion into late blight management models. Potato Progress XIV:1, 6pp. Fox, A.D., 2014: MtnRT White Paper: Summary of the MtnRT System. Providing weather inputs for plant disease models. Published at www.foxweather2.com. May 2, 2014, 54 pp. Gent, D. H., Mahaffee, W. F., Pfender, W. F., McRoberts, N. 2013. The use and role of predictive systems in disease management. Annual Review of Phytopathology. 51: 267-289 Hultstrand, D.M., T.W. Parzybok, A.D. Fox, E.M. Tomlinson, and B.D. Kappel, 2011: Use of high resolution gauge-adjusted precipitation in the verification of numerical quantitative precipitation forecasts for west coast storm events. Presented at the National Hydrologic Warning Council Conference, May 10-12, 2011, San Diego, CA, 39 pp. Pfender, W. F., D. H. Gent, and W. F. Mahaffee. 2011. Sensitivity of disease management decision aids to temperature input errors associated with out-of-canopy and reduced time-resolution measurements. Plant Disease 95:.726-736. Fox, A.D., 2011: MtnRT White Paper: Summary of the MtnRT System. Providing weather inputs for plant disease models. Published at www.foxweather2.com. August 31, 2011, 45 pp. Pfender, W. F., Gent, D. H., Mahaffee, W. F., Coop, L. B. and Fox, A. D. 2010. Decision aids for multiple decision disease management as affected by weather input errors. Phytopathology 101:644-653.

22. Reference List: Cont’d Daly, C., Coop, L., Fox, A. 2008. Novel approaches to spatial and temporal estimation of diverse western meteorology. Symposium I: A Consortium Approach to Advancing the use of Weather Information in IPM: The Western IPM Weather Workgroup. American Phytopathological Society Pacific Division Annual Meeting. June 24-27, 2008, Jackson, Wyoming. Coop, L. and A. Fox. 2008. Novel Delivery IPM Tools in Real Time for Decision Support – Pull. Symposium I: A Consortium Approach to Advancing the use of Weather Information in IPM: The Western IPM Weather Workgroup. American Phytopathological Society Pacific Division Annual Meeting. June 24-27, 2008, Jackson, Wyoming. Fox, A.D., 2005: Using MtnRain™ and MtnRTemps™ to forecast rainfall over complex terrain in Southern California winter storms during Winter 2004-05. Electronic Newsletter Supplement, Floodplain Management Association, October 2005, 25 pp.

23. Final Summary A brief description of weather inputs into the IPPC system has been given. A sample of IPPC’s “My Pest Page” has been given. The interface is easy to learn and use. Plots of forecasted vs. observed can be generated quickly. Some performance statistics between MtnRT and the NWS NDFD were given. – In general, MtnRT responded better to day-to-day variation in temperature than NDFD, for Tmin forecasts for frost during the past five seasons (2009-2014). – The latest maps of high resolution NDFD forecasts showed some apparent non-meteorological bias differences between WFO forecast areas. MtnRT has not shown such a pattern of bias differences. MtnRT performs best on temperature, RH and rain. Wind forecasting is more difficult and more complex, especially on slopes, hills. Incorporating PRISM data can improve the forecast of MtnRT Tmin We showed an example of performance trends of estimated (V2 method) versus observed temperature inside and outside the canopy in a hop yard at the location of the virtual weather station. Many thanks to Dr’s Leonard Coop, David Gent, and Christopher Daly for their inputs, and Carla Thomas for reviewing this presentation.

24. Thank You!!Thank You!! Alan Fox, Director Fox Weather, LLC 726 13 th Street, Suite A Fortuna, CA 95540 Office 707 725-8013 Mobile 805 469-1368 Fax 707 725-9380 e-mail alan@foxweather.comalan@foxweather.com IPPC Contact: Dr. Leonard Coop Assis. Prof. (Research), Dept Botany & Plant Pathology Assoc. Director, Integrated Plant Protection Center 2040 Cordley Oregon State University Corvallis OR 97331-2907 Phone 541-737-5523 http://uspest.org/coopl