1. Recent Developments in the Community Emissions Model CONCEPT 5 th Annual CMAS Model User Conference Tuesday October 17, 2006 Mark Janssen LADCO

2. Background CONsolidated Community Emissions Processing Tool - CONCEPT. PostgreSQL, Perl, PostGIS. Some fortran for M6, Nonroad, CMAQ Build with a community in mind: easy to read/modify and customize QA. Now operational and will be part of LADCO/MWRPO SIP.

3. Models in CONCEPT And what makes them different Industrial Point- advanced temporal Area- advanced temporal Nonroad- integrated NONROAD, day specific meteorology Biogenics – BEIS2/BEIS3/MEGAN NH3- Processed based model (NAS recommendation) Onroad- Complex temporal, Link Based

4. If you want a modeling system that needs extensive and flexible QA and is foundation community model

5. Onroad Motor Vehicle Link based onroad model with embeded version of mobile6. T3 – Conversion tool reads many travel demand models makes them usable by CONCEPT Handle very complex temporal(month, day, hour, ) by road and vehicle type for VMT, Speed, Mix. Adjust speed based on volume after temporalization Flexible speed, temperature bins for accelerated M6 Processing Toxics being added by USEPA

6. LADCO 2002 Networks Data Processed StateNetworkTDM# Links IllinoisCATS - Chicago AreaEMME233,774 IllinoisILDOT StatewideGenerated from Observed303,297 IndianaMPO - IndianapolisTransCAD7,599 IndianaNIRPC - Northwest IndianaEMME29,023 IndianaINDOT StatewideTransCAD31,181 MichiganSEMCOG - Detroit AreaTransCAD14,985 MichiganMIDOT StatewideTransCAD9,227 MinnesotaMMC - Minneapolis St. Paul AreaTP+20,898 MissouriEWGCOG – St. Louis AreaCUBE - TP+/Voyager40,394 MinnesotaMNDOT StatewideGenerated from Observed4,402 Ohio Nine Urban AreasCUBE-TRANPLAN3,723 to 29,796 OhioOHDOT StatewideTransCAD50,644 WisconsinSEWRPC - Milwaukee AreaTRANPLAN17,054 WisconsinWIDOT StatewideTP+/VIPER143,327 Total Links801,467

7. Example of Complex Temporal

8. Example Vehicle Mix Temporal Profile

9. LADCO Networks All of region 5

10. EGU Temporal based on CEM Gold Standard in Emissions, Direct measurement Use the Hourly CEM Data to derive more represenative EGU inventories. Automated tool other users can use not a one-off analysis. Create complex NIF3.0 Need profiles because actual hourly not usable in future years.

11. EGU Temporal based on CEM Continued… Build hourly weekday, Saturday, Sunday for each month. Why Not use: Large Data, What is Typical, Matching CEM to the NEI. CEM Analysis tool will ship with CONCEPT v.66 Use CONCEPT’s temporal processor that can use the complex temporal NIF allows.

12. Ratio of July weekday EGU NOx with and without CEM based temporal allocation

13. July 12, 2002 hourly NOx for Georgia EGUs

14. July 12, 2002 hourly NOx for Illinois EGUs

15. Significant weekday/weekend variation is apparent with CEM based temporal allocation

16. Biogenic Emissions: MEGAN July 3, 2002 episode day Total emissions (TPD) from: –EMS/BIOME (BEIS3) and –CONCEPT/MEGAN models Less Isoprene using MEGAN model

17. Isoprene:Difference plot of BIOME(BEIS3) – MEGAN Hourly isoprene emissions (right)

18. Common Hybrid Approach CAMx SOA pre-cursor species: CG3, SQT, and TRP The application of a BEIS post-processor to “estimate” SOA pre- cursor species are shown in the table on the right in bold Much higher PM SOA pre- cursor emissions using MEGAN

19. Agricultural Ammonia Processed based NH3 model based on recommendations from National Academy of Science. Model runs every farm and requires complex input data like N content of feed, barn color.

20. What We are Trying to Model?

21. Actual Farm Data Animal Allocation Processor (AAP) Default Data Tables Combined Real and Synthetic Farms by Grid Cell Farm Emissions Model (FEM) Farm Emissions Model Output EPA State Animal Populations EPA County Animal Population Distributions EPA State-Level MMT Distributions County-Level Fertilizer Data Fertilizer Data by Grid Cell Customized MMT Data

22. Ammonia Emission Rate from Swine Housing (two days in February)

23. NH3-Next Steps Poultry Housing Model science not complete May years of validation work because there are limited field measurements. Model too slow to be operational( months to run 7 days nationally. Speed up the model. C, perl, fortran PC single facility version so people doing validation studies can test tool.

24. Performance Problems We have a model that works, but is slow Link based networks, biogenics, nh3 model. Projects underway to improve them. Example is CAMX/CMAQ writer that used to take 12 hours, now runs in 67 seconds. Opinion: Better to have a transparent model that is slow than a fast black box. Can fix speed problems where needed. If speed was a primary concern we would all be running CAMX not CMAQ.

25. Thanks to Community! Environ (Pollack, Haasbeek, Shepard, et al) Onroad Networks Alpine Geophysics(Wilkinson) MEGAN NCAR(Alex Guenther) MEGAN LADCO(Baker) - MEGAN MI-DEQ(Edick) – CEM/EGU UC-Davis(Zhang, et al) NH3 Model UC- Riverside(Wang, et al) NH3 Model Users who make sure the model works