1. Engineered Solutions International What is the Severn Barrage and what will it do? EurIng Prof Ian M. Arbon MSc, MBA, CEng FIMechE, FASME, FEI, FInstR, MIoD Environmental Decision-Making – Does Theology Help? Trinity College Bristol 10 March 2007

2. Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage Overview of Presentation 1Recap on Sustainability 2‘Energy’ and ‘Electricity’ 3Energy and Climate Change 4The Energy Hierarchy 5How is the UK responding? 6The Severn Barrage 7Concluding Thoughts

3. Engineered Solutions International 1. Recap on Sustainability The Severn Barrage

4. Engineered Solutions International Definition of Sustainability Some of the best-known (and memorable) definitions of Sustainability are: “Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” Bruntland Report (1987) Or even more simply, “We have borrowed the present from our children.” Old African proverb The Severn Barrage

5. Engineered Solutions International Sustainability Diagram SOCIETAL ENVIRON-MENTAL ECONOMIC Reducing negative impacts on environment and health Increasing quality of life Improving financial gains for businesses and society The ‘Triple Bottom Line’ Effect Sustain -ability Definition of Sustainability The Severn Barrage

6. Engineered Solutions International 2. ‘Energy’ and ‘Electricity’ The Severn Barrage

7. Engineered Solutions International Breakdown of Total UK Energy Usage Source: Dr Sue Ions, British Nuclear Group (2005) The Severn Barrage

8. Engineered Solutions International ElectricityHeatTransport Actual split of energy types in UK‘Coverage’ in the Energy Review Source: P. Wolfe, REA (2006) Coverage of UK Energy in Energy Review The Severn Barrage

9. Engineered Solutions International 3. Energy and Climate Change The Severn Barrage

10. Engineered Solutions International Global primary energy use, historical development from 1850 to 1990 and in the three cases to 2100, in Gtoe. The insert shows global population growth, 1850 to 1990 and projections to 2100, in billion people. Source: Bos et al., 1992 Global Primary Energy Use The Severn Barrage

11. Engineered Solutions International Source: World Energy Council (2000) Global carbon emissions from fossil fuel (in billions of tonnes of Carbon) green curve [C] would lead to CO 2 stabilisation at ~450 ppmv Global Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions The Severn Barrage

12. Engineered Solutions International Carbon Emissions per Capita (2000) versus Population Carbon Emissions per Capita The Severn Barrage

13. Engineered Solutions International CO 2 contraction for 450 ppm and convergence by 2030 to globally equal per capita emissions rights Source: Global Commons Institute (2003) CO 2 Contraction and Convergence The Severn Barrage

14. Engineered Solutions International Source: IEA ‘World Energy Outlook’ (2006) Global Carbon Emissions Compared with CO 2 Stabilisation at 450 ppmv (510 ppmv CO 2 eq) The Severn Barrage

15. Engineered Solutions International Source: IEA ‘World Energy Outlook’ (2006) Global Carbon Emissions Compared with CO 2 Stabilisation at 450 ppmv (510 ppmv CO 2 eq) ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO BAPS SCENARIO EXTRAPOLATED TO 2050 The Severn Barrage

16. Engineered Solutions International Source: Prof Robert Socolow, 2004, Science 305:968-9720) Socolow’s Stabilisation Wedges Stabilisation triangle includes 7 wedges, each of 25 GtC The Severn Barrage

17. Engineered Solutions International 4. The Energy Hierarchy The Severn Barrage

18. Engineered Solutions International Definition of the ‘Energy Hierarchy’ 1 – Energy Conservation  2 – Energy Efficiency  3 – Renewable, Sustainable Energy Supplies  4 – Other Low Carbon Energy Supplies  5 – Conventional Energy Supplies The Severn Barrage

19. Engineered Solutions International Definition of the ‘Energy Hierarchy’ 1 – Energy Conservation (do not use as much energy)  2 – Energy Efficiency (find more efficient ways of supplying/using energy)  3 – Renewable, Sustainable Energy Supplies (least environmental impact)  4 – Other Low Carbon Energy Supplies (other GHG-reducing supply sources)  5 – Conventional Energy Supplies (the way we currently do it) The Severn Barrage

20. Engineered Solutions International 5. How is the UK responding? The Severn Barrage

21. Engineered Solutions International Power Generation Mix 1990-2005 The Severn Barrage Source: DUKES (2006)

22. Engineered Solutions International The Severn Barrage Coal+0.62% Oil-0.10% Gas+1.01% Nuclear-0.52% Hydro+0.01% Other+0.48% Total+1.50% Power Generation Mix 1997-2005 Average Annual Change in Mix

23. Engineered Solutions International UK’s Self-Sufficiency in Fossil Fuels: 2002 20102020 Gasnet exporterimport 30%import 80% Oilnet exportermodest importerlarge importer Coalnet importerlarge importerlarge importer Source: PIU Energy Review, February 2002 Does this describe a sustainable situation? How is the UK responding? The Severn Barrage

24. Engineered Solutions International 0102030405060708090 Austria Sweden Portugal Finland Spain Italy France Denmark Greece Germany Ireland Netherlands Luxembourg UK Belgium Overall EU EU Member State Percentage of Total Power 1997 actual 2010 targets Total Power From Renewables In The EU How is the UK responding? The Severn Barrage

25. Engineered Solutions International Percentage of UK Electricity from Renewables: 199720102020 actualtarget aspiration UK 2%10% (8%)20% (15%) SCO10%18% (23%)40% (>50%) ENG+WAL 1.8% 9% (7%)18% (12%) How is the UK responding? The Severn Barrage

26. Engineered Solutions International Stop Press: 09 March 2007 EU leaders agree to introduce legislation which will reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% by 2020, just 13 years from now. Question: by how much has the UK reduced its GHG emissions over the past nearly ten years since this Government has been in office? Er… they’ve actually increased over that period! So, how are we going to reverse this trend? How about a tidal barrage? The Severn Barrage How is the UK responding?

27. Engineered Solutions International 6. The Severn Barrage The Severn Barrage

28. Engineered Solutions International Location Bristol Channel/ Severn Estuary Downstream of Cardiff to Weston- super-Mare 16 km length The Severn Barrage

29. Engineered Solutions International Tidal Power The Barrage impounds the tide, then the water is released through a turbine to generate electricity Proven Technology: La Rance in France has generated tidal power reliably for over 35 years The Severn Barrage

30. Engineered Solutions International Barrage Operation The Severn Barrage

31. Engineered Solutions International Barrage Layout (1989 Report) 216 Turbines, 40MW each, 8640MW total 166 Sluices 35,000m 2 Ship Locks Small Locks Public Road The Severn Barrage

32. Engineered Solutions International Facts and Figures  Annual Output 17 TWh (~5% of UK consumption)  Installed Capacity 8640 MW  Savings of CO 2 emissions: 18Mt per year compared to Coal; (equivalent to 3% of total UK Carbon emissions)  Renewables Obligation:  15% by 2015 (50-55TWh) - Barrage cannot contribute  20% by 2020 would require a further 17TWh. Barrage could contribute all of this - if sanctioned soon  Capital Cost £8bn 1989  ~£14bn 2005 – needs re-estimate  Security of supply benefit The Severn Barrage

33. Engineered Solutions International Power Generation (Spring Tide) The Severn Barrage

34. Engineered Solutions International Power Generation (Neap Tide) The Severn Barrage

35. Engineered Solutions International Flexibility of Output The Severn Barrage

36. Engineered Solutions International Environmental Studies 1989 A total of 70 studies, with a budget of £2m, covering: Hydrodynamics (tides, currents, waves) Hydrodynamics (tides, currents, waves) Sediments, Salinity, Water Quality, Drainage Sediments, Salinity, Water Quality, Drainage Ecology, Birds, Fish Ecology, Birds, Fish The Severn Barrage

37. Engineered Solutions International Environmental Balance ? Loss of the unique harsh environment Some birds may lose habitat Some birds may lose habitat Marine life and other birds will increase Marine life and other birds will increase Flood protection to estuary and rivers Flood protection to estuary and rivers Carbon Saving Carbon Saving The environmental assessment needs to be updated to account for the changes in the Estuary since the 1980s and also the changes in legislation The Severn Barrage

38. Engineered Solutions International Transport Key Issues Ports and Shipping Forecast Shipping Movements Forecast Shipping Movements Size of Locks to suit Avonmouth docks Size of Locks to suit Avonmouth docks Road and Rail Cost-benefit of a Barrage Crossing Cost-benefit of a Barrage Crossing The Severn Barrage

39. Engineered Solutions International Construction : Prefabricated Caissons The Severn Barrage

40. Engineered Solutions International 1989 report identified potential UK sites shown 1989 report identified potential UK sites shown Potential Sites in Europe Potential Sites in Europe Project and Employment Benefits of using many sites Project and Employment Benefits of using many sites The Severn Barrage Caisson Construction Sites

41. Engineered Solutions International Construction Sequence (1989 Report) The Severn Barrage

42. Engineered Solutions International Turbine Installation The Severn Barrage

43. Engineered Solutions International 9m Diameter Bulb Turbine The Severn Barrage

44. Engineered Solutions International Employment Employment (1989 report) 200,000 man years for construction 200,000 man years for construction 35,000 jobs at construction peak, distributed over the UK, about half in the Severnside region 35,000 jobs at construction peak, distributed over the UK, about half in the Severnside region 10,000 - 40,000 permanent jobs in the region 10,000 - 40,000 permanent jobs in the region The Severn Barrage

45. Engineered Solutions International Economics of the Project Preliminary work in 2005 shows a positive return: carbon credits are necessary carbon credits are necessary - ROCs buyout - ROCs recycle valued by ILEX (April 2005 Central value) external benefits are additional external benefits are additional The Severn Barrage

46. Engineered Solutions International 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 CostILEX April 2005 spot market forecast Actual Price 7 Dec 05 Tax Equity Return Transmission Opex Transmission Capex Barrage Opex Barrage Capex Cost – Price relationship ROC recycle ROC buyout Wholesale electricity price The Severn Barrage p/kWh April 2005 money

47. Engineered Solutions International 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Security of supply Increased land & property values Job creation Inward investment Shared grid strengthening costs Flood damage avoidance Value of Externalities p/kWh These indicative values are a key part of the project value The Severn Barrage

48. Engineered Solutions International Outline Program for Implementation The Severn Barrage

49. Engineered Solutions International 7. Concluding Thoughts The Severn Barrage

50. Engineered Solutions International Concluding Thoughts The Severn Barrage is one of very few projects in the UK which could bring the UK’s “electricity from renewables” commitment back on target by 2020 The Severn Barrage is one of very few projects in the UK which could bring the UK’s “electricity from renewables” commitment back on target by 2020 The ‘real’ solution to the renewables targets is not ‘large projects’ versus ‘small projects’ – both will be necessary – cf. Socolow’s wedges The ‘real’ solution to the renewables targets is not ‘large projects’ versus ‘small projects’ – both will be necessary – cf. Socolow’s wedges Following the ‘Triple Bottom Line’ analysis, there are Economic, Environmental and Societal benefits Following the ‘Triple Bottom Line’ analysis, there are Economic, Environmental and Societal benefits The Barrage is a truly renewable, sustainable, predictable, indigenous source of electricity, which provides real security of supply The Barrage is a truly renewable, sustainable, predictable, indigenous source of electricity, which provides real security of supply If not the Severn Barrage, then what? If not the Severn Barrage, then what? The Severn Barrage

51. Engineered Solutions International What is the Severn Barrage and what will it do? Thank you for your attention during this presentation Environmental Decision-Making – Does Theology Help? Trinity College Bristol 10 March 2007

52. Engineered Solutions International Sediment Types Rock & Gravel Sandy Area -5m OD Contour Line Muddy Area The Severn Barrage

53. Engineered Solutions International Main effects of the Barrage Tide Range reduced from 14m to 7m (springs)  Smaller inter-tidal area Reduction of Sediment in Suspension Reduction of Sediment in Suspension  Improved water quality  Greater ecological productivity The Severn Barrage

54. Engineered Solutions International Reduced sediment in suspension Currents will be reduced within Barrage leading to:  A large reduction in suspended sediment  A more stable seabed  Sunlight penetration through the water column  An Increase in dissolved oxygen to more normal levels These changes will result in colonisation by a range of estuarine organisms (absent in the existing harsh regime) and an increase in bird species and numbers The Severn Barrage

55. Engineered Solutions International Areas at Risk from Flooding The Severn Barrage

56. Engineered Solutions International Flood protection in the Severn Estuary and Rivers Flooding in the estuary can occur when extreme high tides coincide with storm surges Flooding in the estuary can occur when extreme high tides coincide with storm surges Flooding in the rivers can occur when these same sea conditions coincide also with high river flows Flooding in the rivers can occur when these same sea conditions coincide also with high river flows The water level in the basin can be controlled - The water level in the basin can be controlled -  To prevent the flooding in the estuary (upstream of the barrage)  To avoid obstruction to river flow caused by high tides The Severn Barrage

57. Engineered Solutions International Use Of Barrage for Flood Protection The Severn Barrage