1. Estrus Detection Technologies and Their Economic Implications
K.A. Dolecheck
W.J. Silvia
J.M. Bewley
University of Kentucky
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2. Estrus Detection Methods
NAHMS 2007

3. Visual Observation Problems
Cow problems
Poor footing
Inadequate space
High production
People problems
Time allocation
Accuracy

4. Technology Opportunities
Estrus associated changes
Secondary signs of estrus
Endocrine signs
NEED PICTURE

5. Technology Opportunities
Estrus associated changes
Standing behavior
Cite accubreed?

6. Technology Opportunities
Estrus associated changes
Standing behavior
Secondary signs of estrus
Activity

7. AfiTag/Pedometer Plus AfiMilk, Ltd. CowScout™
System
Company
AfiTag/Pedometer Plus
AfiMilk, Ltd.
CowScout™
GEA Farm Technologies, Inc.
HeatPhone®
Medria
Heatseeker™II
BouMatic™
IceQube™
ICE Robotics™
Lactivator
Nedap
MooMonitor
Dairymaster
Ai24
Semex®
HR-Tag™
SCR™
Select Detect™
Select Sires, Inc.
SensOor
AGIS Automation
Track a Cow™
Animart™

8. Activity
Estrus

9. Technology Opportunities
Estrus associated changes
Standing behavior
Secondary signs of estrus
Activity
Rumination

10. Rumination
Estrus

11. Technology Opportunities
Body temperature
Rectal
Vaginal
Reticular
Tympanic
Estrus associated changes
Standing behavior
Secondary signs of estrus
Activity
Rumination

12. Vaginal Temperature
Temperature
Time

13. Technology Opportunities
Estrus associated changes
Standing behavior
Secondary signs of estrus
Activity
Rumination
Body temperature
Endocrine signs
Progesterone levels

14. Progesterone LH -4 -3 -2 -1 0 93 +/- 11h 31 +/- 8h 24 +/- 6h ESTRUS
OVULATION
93 +/- 11h
31 +/- 8h
Progesterone
ONSET
24 +/- 6h LH
ESTRUS

15. Technology Opportunities
Estrus associated changes
Standing behavior
Secondary signs of estrus
Activity
Rumination
Body temperature
Endocrine signs
Progesterone levels
Other opportunities
Heart rate
Feed intake
Lying vs. standing time
Milk yield
Vaginal conductivity

17. Herd Dependent
Herd is the biggest factor determining if a system will work
Starting point
Management

18. Investment Analysis of Automated Estrus Detection Technologies
K.A. Dolecheck, G. Heersche Jr., and J.M. Bewley
University of Kentucky

19. Objective Develop a decision-making tool User-friendly Farm-specific
Multiple technologies
Dashboard tools provide interactive interfaces for analysis and decision support

20. Model Outputs Reproductive performance
Days open (French and Nebel, 2003)
Investment analysis
Years to break even
Net present value

21. Calculations Net Present Value
Present value of cash inflows minus present value of cash outflows
Accounts for timing of revenues and cash flows
Good investment: Net present value ≥ 0
System net present value determined by considering the value associated with a change in days open

22. Calculations Other Considerations
Accounts for costs associated with:
Pre-investment estrus
detection method
Semen usage
Pregnancy diagnosis
10 year investment period

23. Limitations Investment analysis does not consider:
Additional benefits of technologies
Changes in heifer inventory
Effect on quality of producer’s life

24. Tabs organize information
Description and instructions for user
Dashboard available at: www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies
www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies

25. Hover buttons explain inputs and results
Inputs adjustable in multiple ways
Dashboard available at: www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies
www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies

26. Compare up to 3 different technologies
Dashboard available at: www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies
www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies

27. Technology names appear here
Black box and “Best Option” indicate the highest net present value
Net present value shown visibly as either good (green) or bad (red)
Dashboard available at: www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies
www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies

28. Example Analysis Average United States Holstein dairy herd
DairyMetrics (Dairy Records Management Systems, Raleigh, NC, USA)
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI; Columbia, MO, USA)
Published literature
Compare high vs. low
Initial investment cost
Cow unit cost
Estrus detection rate

29. Farm Specific Inputs Herd Assumptions
Value
Source
Herd size
313
DairyMetrics, July 2013
Milk price
$0.43/kg
FAPRI, 2013
Milk yield
33.7 kg/cow/d
Feed cost
$0.20/kg DM

30. Farm Specific Inputs Culling & Replacement Assumptions
Value
Source
Culling rate
38.1%
DairyMetrics, July 2013
Days in milk
do not breed
300 d
Model assumption
Cull milk yield
15.88 kg/d
Replacement cost
$1785
Liang, 2013
Cull cow value
$1.67/kg
FAPRI, 2013

31. Farm Specific Inputs Reproduction Assumptions
Value
Source
Voluntary waiting period
58.4 d
DairyMetrics, July 2013
Current estrus detection rate
49.4%
Current 1st service conception rate
37.8%

32. Farm Specific Inputs Reproduction Assumptions
Value
Source
Cost of 1st service semen
$15
Model assumption
Cost of ≥ 2nd service semen
$10
Cost of pregnancy detection
$3/head
Galvao et al., 2013
Pre-investment estrus detection method
Visual

33. Technology Inputs Initial investment $5,000 (Low) $10,000 (High)
Unit price
$50 (50)
$100 (100)
Estrus detection rate
70% (70)
90% (90)

34. System Inputs Initial Costs
Start-Up Cost
Unit Cost
Total Initial Investment
Low-50
$5,000
$50
$13,465
Low-100
$100
$21,930
High-50
$10,000
$18,465
High-100
$26,930
Low: $5,000 initial investment
High: $10,000 initial investment
50: $50 unit price
100: $100 unit price

35. Other Assumptions Discount rate = 8.0% (Bewley et al., 2010)
Every animal requires a unit
Replace 5% of units each year

36. Analysis Outcome

37. Analysis Results Days Open

38. Analysis Results Years to Break Even
Low: $5,000 initial investment
High: $10,000 initial investment
50: $50 unit price
100: $100 unit price
70: 70% estrus detection rate
90: 90% estrus detection rate
Analysis Results Years to Break Even
Investment-Unit Price-EDR

39. Analysis Results Net Present Value
Low: $5,000 initial investment
High: $10,000 initial investment
50: $50 unit price
100: $100 unit price
70: 70% estrus detection rate
90: 90% estrus detection rate
Analysis Results Net Present Value
Investment-Unit Price-EDR

40. Additional Analysis Break Even Estrus Detection Rate
Technology estrus detection rates vary under different management situations
Goal: Determine lowest estrus detection rate at which investment in each system is still profitable
Change each system’s estrus detection rate until net present value is equal to $0

41. Additional Analysis Break Even Estrus Detection Rate
Investment-Unit Price
Low: $5,000 initial investment
High: $10,000 initial investment
50: $50 unit price
100: $100 unit price

42. Additional Analysis Good Reproductive Management Situation
Investment profitability is dependent on pre-investment reproductive management
Goal: Determine how investment profitability changes with improved beginning estrus detection
95th percentile = 76% (DairyMetrics)

43. Additional Analysis Good Reproductive Management Situation
Investment-Unit Price-EDR
Technology Example
Low: $5,000 initial investment
High: $10,000 initial investment
50: $50 unit price
100: $100 unit price
70: 70% estrus detection rate
90: 90% estrus detection rate

44. Conclusions Change in days open is affected by estrus detection rate
Years to break even is affected by:
1) Estrus detection rate
2) Initial investment cost
3) Cow unit cost
Net present value is affected by:
2) Cow unit cost
3) Initial investment cost
Split into two slide

45. Conclusions Starting point determines investment profitability
Accurate information is essential for accurate results
Producer
Technology manufacturers
Dairy producers considering purchasing an automated estrus detection technology system can use this model as a decision support tool
Too many words. Can you use phrases instead of full sentences?

46. Questions? Karmella Dolecheck 411 W.P. Garrigus Building
Lexington, KY
Jeffrey Bewley
407 WP Garrigus Building
Lexington, KY 40546
Dashboard available at:
www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies