1. The Future of Transatlantic Relations Dr Fraser Cameron Director of Studies European Policy Centre, Brussels

2. EU and US- Friends or Rivals? What Common Values and Interests? Venus v Mars US foreign policy (emphasis on terrorism, pre-emptive strikes, military, unilateral – “the international anarchist”) Systemic or temporary change ? Would Gore have been different? Dean?

3. 1949-1989 Cold War glue held alliance together Suez, France/NATO, Ostpolitik, Pershings, ‘chicken wars’ German – European unification 9 Nov 1989 : 11 September 2001

4. 1990s Bush Sr respected in Europe – Clinton unknown (but later loved in Europe) Balkans – Land mines – UN finances Role of Congress after 1994 (Gingrich) – impeachment Somalia - Kosovo

5. EU-US Structures 1990 Transatlantic Declaration 1995 New Transatlantic Agenda (global and regional cooperation) Annual summits, ministerials, Senior officials (SLG), Task Force, CFSP, JHA

6. George W Bush Little support in Europe ‘The toxic Texan’ Disputes over Kyoto, ICC, arms control, Middle East, UN, rogue states Key advisers (Cheney, Rice, Rumsfeld, Powell) little experience of today’s Europe Congressional ignorance

7. Impact of 9/11 Initially much sympathy in Europe “We are all Americans now” Le Monde Measured response – overthrow of Taliban welcomed (but no NATO role) And no return to multilateralism – “you are with us or against us” Axis of evil ; doctrine of pre-emptive strikes

8. Impact of Iraq Unfinished business after first Gulf War Top of ‘neocons’ agenda (Wolfowitz), seized opportunity after 9/11 : Saddam- Osama bin Laden -WMD-terrorism Rumsfeld ‘old v new Europe’ Consequences – shift back to UN?

9. Trade relations $ one billion a day in goods and services More EU investment in Texas than US investment in Japan US investment in Netherlands double US investment in Mexico The two giants of the WTO But disputes on GMOs, tax regimes, steel, agriculture, competition policy, etc

10. Common Values Democracy, rule of law, free markets, but Different social and economic models Religion – huge differences ; plus death penalty, violence, health care, abortion Growing public perceptions of these differences

11. Common Interests Promoting democracy and free trade Combating terrorism and WMD Regional stability (Balkans, Middle East, North Korea, Africa, etc) But UN? Multilateral approach? Arms control? Role of military?

12. Public Opinion Latest polls (GMF) show rapidly declining support throughout Europe for US foreign policy Public agreement on main threats but disagree on use of military (84-50) in general and on Iran in particular (73-44) Most Americans support active overseas role – only 15% favour isolationism Most Europeans (and Americans) favour stronger EU foreign and security policy role – but support drops from 70% to 50% if this would mean more spending on defence

13. The Future Pax Americana? Balance of Power? Benevolent hegemon? Impact of Iraq on US attitudes towards UN, nation building, role of military, allies US and Europe : support united Europe or divide and rule? Balkans – much agreement but ICC, SFOR, unfinished business (Kosovo), Stability Pact, Turkey

14. A New Partnership Need to talk to and not past each other. ‘More Powell and less Rumsfeld’. Better summits. Involve EP and Congress more. Shared threat assessments ; joint action eg Iran, N Korea, Middle East WTO/Cancun – shared responsibility New economic agenda – Open Skies, financial services, regulatory frameworks EU has to get its act together on CFSP and improve military capabilities (Solana paper) US has to recognise EU as best partner