1. Navigating an Uncertain World A book in two parts –The Columbus Project –A Pilots Guide A webinar with the authors –Gill Ringland, Patricia Lustig, Rob Phaal, Martin Duckworth, Chris Yapp 9/14/2015 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 1

2. After “Beyond Crisis” it became clear that –There is no return to Business as Usual –Most organisations are facing organisational renewal –We needed to help people see how to get started The tool kit needed fleshing out This webinar will focus on the Pilots Guide – the toolkit – and use The Columbus Project for examples The Columbus Project follows a fictional organisation – FutureParts – on their journey of renewal. 9/14/2015 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 2

3. Effective at renewal ? Efficiency Asset allocation Traditional hierarchy Ad hoc activities, lobbying etc Present and future operating environment 9/14/20153 www.samiconsulting.co.uk ©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig

4. Effective at renewal Efficiency Asset allocation Traditional hierarchy Planning and ensuring that the renewal machinery works Present and future operating environment 9/14/20154 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

5. Audit of capability Organisational insight Organisational & leadership development Horizon scanning Scenarios Asset allocation Policy and strategy Review Narrative Innovation Road maps 9/14/20155 www.samiconsulting.co.uk ©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig

6. 9/14/20156 www.samiconsulting.co.uk Tricia Lustig

7. Audit of capability Organisational insight 9/14/20157 www.samiconsulting.co.uk ©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig

8. Values – the organisation’s values are not always explicit and are slow to change Narrative – what stories does the organisation tell and how does it describe itself? Insight - how does the organisation make sense of the internal capability and external world? Options – how dos the organisation decide where to invest? Machinery – are the culture, processes and people in place to support renewal? 9/14/2015 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 8

9. 9/14/2015 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 9 Martin Duckworth

10. Audit of capability Organisational audit Horizon scanning 9/14/201510 www.samiconsulting.co.uk ©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig

11. Trying not to miss the obvious An external (fresh) perspective Evidence of change Evidence of new trends Seeking early indicators of change More detail Less detail 9/14/201511 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

12. DRIVER PRESSURE STATE IMPACT RESPONSE 9/14/201512 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

13. TIME PROMINENCE OF DRIVER NOW LOOKING AHEAD DISTANT FUTURE Horizon 1: Analysis Horizon 3: Imagination Horizon 2: Exploration 9/14/201513 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

14. 9/14/2015 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 14 Gill Ringland

15. Audit of capability Organisational insight Horizon scanning Scenarios 9/14/201515 www.samiconsulting.co.uk ©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig

16. www.samiconsulting.co.uk 16

17. 17 Today Trends  Scenarios explore the range of uncertainties Timing ? Forecasts are over-precise www.samiconsulting.co.uk

18. Time Range of forecasts Scenario space spans the uncertainties GDP, Population, etc C SAMI Consulting 2010 9/14/201518 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

19. 9/14/201519 www.samiconsulting.co.uk Dr Chris Yapp

20. Audit of capability Organisational insight Horizon scanning Scenarios Innovation 9/14/201520 www.samiconsulting.co.uk ©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig

21. Structural Economic Change Proactive Strategic Response Cyclical Economic Change Reactive Strategic Response Market Step Change Sitting Tight Mopping up Niche Portfolio New Entrant 9/14/201521 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

22. 9/14/201522 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

23. 9/14/201523 www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk Rob Phaal

24. Audit of capability Organisational insight Horizon scanning Scenarios Innovation Roadmaps 9/14/201524 www.samiconsulting.co.uk ©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig

25. 9/14/201525 www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk Time Market & Business Product, Services & Systems Technology, Capabilities & Resources Where are we now? How can we get there? Where do we want to go? Why do we need to act? What should we do? How can we do it?

26. 9/14/201526 www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk

27. 9/14/201527 www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk

28. 9/14/201528 www.samiconsulting.co.uk Tricia Lustig

29. Audit of capability Organisational insight Organisational & leadership development Horizon scanning Scenarios Asset allocation Policy and strategy Review Narrative Innovation Road maps 9/14/201529 www.samiconsulting.co.uk ©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig

30. Performance Time A B C D E 9/14/201530 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

31. 9/14/201531 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

32. ©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig Effective at renewal Efficiency Asset allocation Traditional hierarchy Planning and ensuring that the renewal machinery works Present and future operating environment 9/14/201532 www.samiconsulting.co.uk