1. Intermodality and the Economy: Seamless Transport Stephen Perkins ECAC Forum 14 December 2011

2. Check inSecurity Departure area Push backTaxiingTake off LandingTaxiing Disemb- arcation Immigra -tion BaggageCustoms The air passenger end-to-end journey Getting to and from the airport Getting through the airport Taking off and landing Getting through airspace Getting to where you want to go 2 Source: Adapted from UK Department for Transport, Improving the Air Passenger Experience, 2009 Transfer

3. Generalised costs and access to airports Generalised Costs Cash cost – Marginal cost of car per person – Parking – Return trip for kiss and fly – Bus/rail/metro fare – Taxi fare per person Time cost Reliability (buffer time cost) Comparative comfort/practicality – Baggage – Crowding – Transfers – stairs/distance for transfers on foot Car Drive time Parking cost Car park shuttle time 3 Kiss+fly Drive time Return drive Car park shuttle Train Station access foot/car/bus Ticket cost, ride time Airport access, foot/shuttle Metro Station access foot/bus Ticket cost, ride time Transfer Airport access, foot/shuttle Bus Bus access foot/car/ metro Ticket cost, ride time Airport access, foot/shuttle TaxiFare, time Ticket cost, ride time Airport access, foot/shuttle

4. UK catchment analysis: two-hour drive-times Source: David Starkie, ITF Roundtable 145 2 hour drive catchments Mean drive time 1.0 hour to nearest alternative Potentially very competitive structure Similar overlap of catchments in Japan, Italy..... Hubs usually different

5. Mode shares for passenger access to Heathrow (%) 5 Source: Kouwenhoven, ITF Roundtable 145

6. Fraport’s high speed rail connections Koln 57 min Bonn 40 min Stuttgart 73 min 174 long distance trains a day AIRail integrated ticketing and bag drop Lufthansa-DB-Fraport Rail&Fly rail discounts for 90 airlines for destinations all over Germany 6 High-speed lines 300 km/h High-speed lines 250 km/h Upgraded lines 200 km/h Sources: Wikipedia; Fraport.

7. Can HSR relieve congested airports and airspace? 7 Source: Wikipedia

8. Top 10 European air passenger flows in 2009 8 Source: Eurostat High Speed Rail 9-12 M pass pa breakeven 400-600km maximum competition with air Stop at airport undermines time savings for city-city service Network node more valuable than single HSL HSR replaced Air 80%+

9. Modal shift from introduction of HSR (% shares) 9 Source: Preston 2009.

10. High speed rail o-d city pairs market shares 10 h:minkm/h 1:25220 2:00215 2:25215 2:25195 2:15195 2:30145 3:00150 2:45230 4:00115 4:30125 Source: De Rus, ITF Roundtable 145

11. HSR network and airports in Japan 11 Source: Yamaguchi, ITF Symposium 2009

12. Domestic air traffic in Japan 2008 12

13. Air and Shinkansen demand (million pkm) 13 Air Shinkansen Source: Yamaguchi, ITF Symposium 2009

14. Principle access to airports is by road – end-to-end convenience with baggage. Road catchment determines competition between airports. Biggest modal transfer is from conventional rail to HSR until distances of 500 km or where sea crossing. Value for hub feeder substitution depends on geography, as HSL only viable for city centre pairs with market of 9m plus To relieve “capacity crunch” all options important – SESAR – Runway congestion pricing – Runway capacity – HSR where spatial geography fortuitous – Japan Conclusions 14

15. Thank you Stephen Perkins stephen.perkins@oecd.org Postal address 2 rue Andre Pascal 75775 Paris Cedex 16