1. FHWA TRAVELER ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK Bus Trip Tables May 9, 2013 Don Vary, CDM Smith Krishnan Viswanathan, CDM Smith

2. Agenda Purpose Data Examined Methods Explored Geography Summary Results – Base year 2008 – Forecast year 2040 2

3. FHWA Traveler Analysis Framework VMT Forecasting and Analysis Model Long Distance Passenger Inter-regional Travel Origin Destination Data National Travel Model Long distance passenger travel modal choice model Freight and passenger integration, and multimodal analysis 3

4. Project Objective and Deliverables To provide baseline travel information for analyzing projects of regional and national significance, corridors, policy initiatives, interstate commerce, and Federal programs. Auto, bus, rail, aviation Long-distance inter-regional multimodal passenger travel origin destination matrix for 2008 and 2040 A set of documented and transparent methodologies to expedite future development 4

5. Project Team 5 FHWA Daniel Jenkins, Project Manager Roger Mingo Associates Roger Mingo CDM Smith Krishnan Viswanathan Don Vary RSG, Inc. Colin Smith Bhargava Sana

6. Data Examined 1995 ATS 2001 NHTS California Long Distance Survey (2011) Ohio Long Distance Survey (2002- 2003) 2008 American Bus Association Motor Coach Survey 2011 Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration Data Russell’s National Motor Coach Guide 6

7. Trip Generation 7 AgeIncome Vehicles 01+ Under 18Under $35,0000.0620.097 $35,000-$750000.8720.155 >$75,0000.8680.156 18-64Under $35,0000.3420.474 $35,000-$750000.6190.263 >$75,0000.4110.151 65 and olderUnder $35,0000.6790.212 $35,000-$750001.0450.190 >$75,0001.0510.097 Source: CDM Smith and American Travel Survey

8. Destination Choice 1.41 * (LN(HH) + 2 *LN (EMP)) - 2.34 * LN (DISTANCE)

9. Trip Length Distribution Bus 9

10. To Orlando > 5K Trips

11. To Los Angeles > 5K Trips

12. Summary Results 12 AutoAirRailBus Share 199581.3%16.1%0.5%2.0% Share 200882.2%14.5%0.6%2.3% Share 204080.1%16.7%0.6%2.2% Total Growth (1995 to 2008)50%34%81%68% Annual Total Growth (1995 to 2008)3.2%2.3%4.7%4.1% Total Growth (2008 to 2040)43%69%46%38% Annual Total Growth (2008 to 2040)1.1%1.6%1.2%1.0%

13. Geography 13

14. Final Products 14 OD flow data by mode (number of trips by mode) for the identified 226 zones

15. Recommendations and Observations The to be released OD data shall be recognized as synthesized data and shall be used as a starting point for any other project and program. Additional verification and analysis are strongly recommended. New national comprehensive passenger flow OD data survey shall be conducted. FHWA is going through its review and possible enhancement on bus and geography data. Data should be released by the end of the summer. 15

16. Thank you! 16