1. Penn State Weather Camps Sat I Sat I - Sat II - NWS - Radar - RadarSat II NWSRadar sfc. map 1 sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3sfc. map 2sfc map 3 -> IR emission PROP to ? -> Temp and Height ?

2. Basic Forecast Guidelines

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4. Know what to expect! = Climo. JUNE 22

5. Basic Forecast Guidelines Climatology Forecast = averages for today Persistence Forecast = yesterday’s valuesyesterday’s values Modified Persistence -> Yesterday = First Guess -> Modify based on changes Conceptual Models

6. Basic Forecast Guidelines What causes temperature to change? ◦Cloud cover:  Day Vs. Night ◦Precipitation:  When it rains T’s tend to be higher/lower? Why? ◦Wind and Fronts:  Direction ◦ N vs. S  Speed ◦ Day Vs. Night

7. Basic Forecast Guidelines

10. Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I Sat I - Sat II - NWS - Radar - RadarSat II NWSRadar sfc. map 1 sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3sfc. map 2sfc map 3 Afternoon stuff

11. Radar NAM model GFS model SFC maps SPC 6/16-17 Event SPC terms

12. Basic Forecast Guidelines What causes rain? ◦Need clouds!  Will any ole cloud do? ◦Moisture supply  Bodies of water – Moisture content of air ◦Upward motion:  How does this affect clouds/precip.?  Mechanisms for “lift” ◦ Fronts – Topography – Low Pressure – Jet stream dist. ◦(In) stability:  Warm down low … cold up high!

13. Basic Forecast Guidelines The “Models” ◦Simulate future state of atmosphere ◦Higher resolution / lower resolution The “Models” ◦Lower Res. (GFS)Lower Res. (GFS) ◦Higher Res. (NAM)Higher Res. (NAM) ◦Higher Res. (HRRR)Higher Res. (HRRR)

14. Your competition !!! ◦The National Weather ServiceThe National Weather Service ◦The Weather ChannelThe Weather Channel ◦AccuweatherAccuweather ◦The guy or gal to your left and right