1. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Integrated Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural Analysis for Water Security 24 February 2012 ME Red Team Meeting Briefer: Distribution Statement: FOUO 1

2. FOUO Flooding causes social unrest and potential mass migration Drought may cause collapse of agriculture and water supply systems The US Army provides disaster relief and must make plans for staging and logistics Changes to water resources infrastructure can cause social instability COCOMs must: anticipate and understand instabilities and vulnerabilities in their areas of operation plan and execute disaster relief efforts develop, compare, and prioritize Presently, hydrologic analyses to support these efforts are possible, but are slow to build, limited in size Socio-cultural analysis tools do not identify potential socio-cultural consequences of water-related stressors. DoD spends billions of dollars on capacity building both during and after conflict. These investment decisions are not always made in a way that is culturally aware. 2 Water Security Baseline

3. Challenges Large flows of aid affect social stability, power relationships, social and cultural norms. It is crucial to recognize the trade-offs and dynamics between goals of humanitarian assistance, stabilization, and economic development. Consistent assessments of local conditions should be done to remain aware of changing conditions and minimize the possibility of being blindsided by unintended consequences. [Gregory Johnson, Vijaya Ramachandran, and Julie Walz. 2011. “The Commander’s Emergency Response Program in Afghanistan: Refining U.S. Military Capabilities in Stability and In-Conflict Development Activities.”] Water can be a resource or a threat. Any attempt to address water security must start with an assessment of existing conditions and the ability to forecast the impact of potential stressors.

4. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Concept/Vision 4 1. Assessment: Methods and Tools for estimating vulnerability due to hydrologic stressors 2. Decision Support: Tools to perform cost/benefit analyses for water infrastructure investments Extend domestic concepts of vulnerability to OCONUS Stakeholder site selection Water as a threat and resource Advanced SC models Hydrologic Simulation in Ungauged Basins Integrated Hydro- SC Vulnerability Assessment Decision Support 6.2 Research  Tool Development  Transition Multi-fidelity, continuum- mechanics based models with model reduction Initialization and parameterization from remotely sensed-data + Flood Risk Social Vulnerability Index Water resources + socio-cultural input to alternatives comparison Full coupling: incorporate the impact of socio-cultural dynamics on hydrologic system and its response

5. Research and Development Challenges Concept/Vision Hydrologic modeling framework from local to watershed and basin scale with varying levels of fidelity based on the required level of resolution. Integrate remotely sensed data for simulation in data sparse regions. Capturing the complex interaction of physical (e.g., hydrological) and socio-cultural processes in a dynamic way is in its infancy. Common challenges across both hydrologic and socio-cultural areas Accurately model large, complex systems where small (local) scale processes can have dramatic (unforseen) consequences on overall system dynamics Model systems where data is sparse. Novel methods are needed to infer/project necessary data to the appropriate scale Hydrologic Analysis

6. Proposed Improvements to Socio-Cultural Analysis Existing: Environmental Indicators and Warning’s Socio- Cultural Inputs Chronic water stress Freshwater Security Anomalies Population Industry Infant Mortality Political Factors Cutter et al. “A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters.” Global Environmental Change; 18; 2008. Proposed: Adapt and Incorporate Multi- Resolution, Locally-Relevant Definitions Antecedent Conditions Coping Responses – ability to manage within expected levels/variability of stress Preparedness Absorptive Capacity – ability to return to normal conditions after a perturbation Adaptive Resilience – ability to transform to a new configuration to address changing conditions Concept/Vision

7. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Coordination Activities since July BOD Presentation USMA – John Farr, MAJ Sugrue, LTC McCarthy Very important for Phase 0 planning What are lead causes of human suffering What is local capacity to operate and maintain infrastructure Where to put strategic investments TEC/AGC – Mike Powers, et al. Users include CoCOMs, USG IC, ISAF, BCT J2 (which feeds J5) to operational manager Broad scale to finer scale MCIA – Jim Hill and Travis Jacox Interested in socio-cultural impacts of environmental changes Have begun collecting socio-cultural data CIA/NGA Interest is capability for high-level planning Tools for early warning of vulnerable regions USAID Interest in tools for guiding planning and development Huge potential savings just from socio-culturally attuned floodplain mapping for urban planning in future mega-cities

8. FY11FY12FY13FY14FY15FY16 Project Timeline Trade- space analysis Advance Existing Socio-Cultural Models Advance Existing Hydrologic Modeling Capabilities Integrated Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural Assessment Modeling Environments and Decision Support Conduct demonstrations and outreach to target customers in DoD Baseline Demonstration Integration DemonstrationDecision Support Demo Baseline evaluation of basin-scale hydrologic modeling Baseline evaluation of social vulnerability assessment Demonstrations and Evaluations Demonstrate water infrastructure scenario analysis capability Demonstrate assessment and planning tool support through reachback Hydro-SC 8 FOUO 21 December 2011 Demonstration of flood vulnerability for COCOM basin Demonstration water resource vulnerability for COCOM watershed Assessment Demonstration Demonstrate sparse data integration capabilities for trans-national river basin Demonstrate web-based delivery of mapping products

9. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Water Security Quantitative Metrics MeasureCurrent Effort Objective Army Objective TRL or SRL Hydrologic and OCONUS stimuli in socio-cultural models Only CONUS cultural data and no hydrologic forcings Include hydrologic and local- cultural stimuli for at least 4 regions of interest Understand social response to hydrologic events in the cultural context of AFRICOM, EUCOM, PACOM, SOUTHCOM 3 Rapid assessment of weather and hydrologic effects Three weeks for inundation modeling 3-4 days or less for the same product Process and exploit relevant data and provide real-time support to commanders’ situational awareness and understanding 5 Coupling of hydrology and socio-cultural models Not coupled. Any assessment done separately Couple the two capabilities such that either code could be used to drive the other Information synthesis; process, and transform data rapidly into usable knowledge, across a wide range of subjects from military logistics to culture and economics 3 Development and natural disaster impact forecasts Country-level assessment Sub-national (‘county-level’) assessment Integration of water security into Theater Campaign Plans. Improved response for disaster relief 4 Large-scale weather and hydrology One year or more to develop a large- scale capability One month or less to develop a large-scale model Understanding dynamics via remote sensing and predictive modeling 4 9

10. Purpose: Improve capability to understand and forecast risks to national security as a result of hydrologically-related events. Anticipate social consequences that may increase instability or provide room to maneuver for extremist organizations Leverage USACE’s hydrologic and socio-cultural analysis capabilities to anticipate and safeguard against water security related issues, providing information for decision support for water infrastructure investment. Deliver usable capabilities to COCOM and other USG planners. Products: Next generation hydrology models that can: Identify inundated areas in days. Execute over large domains with locally tailored physics and resolution. Next generation socio-cultural models that can:. Incorporate non-U.S. social dynamics and processes. Integrate diverse, non-standard demographic data. Provide locally relevant predictions of vulnerability and resilience Coupled hydrology & social-cultural models that can: Identify groups significantly impacted by hydrological scenarios. Identify hydrological consequences of social and cultural change. Explore complex, adaptive interactions between water and society. Payoff: Quicker response, more complete representation for disaster relief. Ability to forecast changes in water supply / demand that allows the Army, COCOMs and intelligence agencies to include these factors in security policies and strategies. Improved ability to prioritize detailed analyses and contingency planning for water-security crises and resource allocation, based on social and cultural impacts. Integrated Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural Analyses for Water Security Schedule & Cost MILESTONESFY13FY14FY15FY16 Hydro-SC vulnerability assessment (threat) Hydro-SC vulnerability assessment (resource) Hydro-SC decision support for water infrastructure AT400.53.54.0 25 35 Status: New 35 Total: $12.0M Unclassified / FOUO

11. Engineer Research and Development Center Backup 11

12. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Team 12 POCOrganizationRole Dr. Mark Jourdan ERDC-CHLHydrologic product scope and design Dr. Matthew Farthing ERDC-CHLMulti-scale hydrologic modeling, model coupling Mr. Tim Perkins ERDC-CERLSocio-cultural dynamics modeling Dr. Lucy Whalley ERDC-CERLSocio-cultural anthropological analyses Mr. John Eylander ERDC-CRRELWeather./climate scenarios Dr. Stacy HowingtonERDC-CHLHydrologic modeling, groundwater/surface water interaction Ms. Amanda HinesERDC-ITLModel integration and tool interfaces TBDDecision support, risk analysis, reduced order modeling

13. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Water Security 13 Purpose Improve capability to understand and forecast risks to national security as a result of hydrologically-related events. Anticipate social consequences that may increase conflict or provide room to maneuver for extremist organizations. Leverage USACE’s hydrologic and socio-cultural analysis capabilities to anticipate and safeguard against water security related issues, providing information for decision support in areas of potential conflict. Deliver usable capabilities to COCOM and other USG planners. Results/Products Funding TargetsPayoff/Transition Quicker response, more complete representation for disaster relief. Ability to forecast changes in water supply / demand that allows the Army, COCOMs and intelligence agencies to include these factors in security policies and strategies. Improved ability to prioritize detailed analyses and contingency planning for water-security crises, based on social and cultural impacts. Funding Type FY12 ($K) FY13 ($K) FY14 ($K) FY15 ($K) 6.20.53.54.0 6.30.0 Total0.53.54.0 Next generation hydrology models that can: Identify inundated areas in days. Execute over very large domains. Next generation land use and macro-economic models that can: Forecast plausible futures at sub-national levels in OCONUS. Incorporate non-U.S. development and planning processes. Integrate diverse, non-standard demographic data. Coupled hydrology & social-cultural models that can: Identify groups significantly impacted by hydrologic scenarios. Identify hydrologic consequences of social and cultural change. Explore complex, adaptive interactions between water and society.

14. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Conflict Anticipation Detailed Milestone Schedule 14 TRL or SRL: Milestone Timeline: Activity Timeline: Demo: Experiment: Transition: 3 4

15. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center FY12 Leveraged Initiatives  MCIA reimbursable work  CREATE  NSF Funded CI Water Initiative *Include both internal and external leveraged programs.

16. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Concept/Vision 16 The goal for this program is to develop an M&S capability for supporting robotics as it pertains to dismounted operations. This would include a computation test bed (CTB) for testing and developing power and mobility algorithms for autonomous navigation, an environment for evaluating TTPs with novel sensors and platforms, and a planning tool for dismounted operations to optimize power, mobility, and sensor effectiveness. Terrain Physics Sensor Physics Geo-Environment Platform Physics Human Dynamics Comp. TestBed Sensor Evaluations Platform Evaluations Robotics TTPs 0000 hrs 1200 hrs Kressler (2006) Mission Planning 6.2 Research  Acquisition Support  Transition Leader / Follower

17. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center END TEMPLATE 17

18. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Water Security 18 Future ERDC Impacts How, if possible, could this opportunity potentially impact ERDC’s existing programs? Does this program have potential for follow-on work? Leveraged Research AFRICOM Niger River Basin Study. Gambia River Flood Assessment UROC reimbursables CREATE - Cultural Reasoning and Ethnographic Analysis for the Tactical Environment Equipment/FacilitiesTechnical Risks 2. What are the barriers to solving this problem? Existing available demographic and social data (including imagery) varies by country and requires manual processing to integrate and generate compatible datasets. Hydrologic models have not been integrated with social or cultural models for either linear or interdependent forecasting. Land use and macro-economic models require methods to forecast stakeholder decision-making; current models assume U.S. decision-making processes without consideration of social or cultural differences. We are often unable to obtain hydrology results at the necessary resolution in a timely manner. Data required for existing weather & hydrology models exceed what is commonly available. 3. How will you overcome those barriers? Apply cross-cultural water crises and development expertise to develop non-U.S.-based land use and macro-economic models. Create an intelligent automated process to identify flow paths and add appropriate resolution in model preprocessing. Develop large-scale hydrology models linked to AFWA databases with the ability to apply varying levels of fidelity based on the required level of resolution. Develop techniques to couple hydrology, land use and macro-economic models for use in decision, planning and assessment tools.

19. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center In 2004, a Defense Science Board Report recommended that Stability Operations be recognized as a core mission for the US Military. This recommendation was codified in Department of Defense Directive (DODD) 3000.05 Military Support for Stability, Security, Transition, and Reconstruction (SSTR) Operations, which was published in late 2005. 19

20. Conflict Anticipation Issues – Flooding – Infrastructure changes – Drought and climate change Product – Web-based dynamic maps of hydrologic state and social stress served through AGC/UROC – Toolbox for continental-scale to village-scale simulation Customers – Intelligence agencies – COCOM Phase 0 planners Infrastructure Investment Issues – Strategic water resources developments (CERP) – Logistics and investments for disaster relief Product – Decision support toolbox with hydro-sc modeling and analysis at the basin scale – Water resources + socio- cultural input to alternatives comparison – Available on reimbursable basis or through reachback Customers – COCOM engineers (Evans) 20

21. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center West Point Discussions

22. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Water Security Baseline 22

23. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center  What are the risks and payoffs? Risks Inability to transition and generalize CONUS socio-cultural rules to provide analysis in OCONUS settings Inability to perform meaningful hydrologic analyses using only remotely sensed data Payoffs Advance warning about social instabilities arising from an excess or shortage of water Water resources projects that increase the local capacity while not creating unforeseen instabilities Water Security

24. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Success and Transition  What are the midterm and final "exams" to check for success? Midterm Ability to perform one-way analysis of socio-cultural impacts (e.g., social vulnerability) driven by hydrologic conditions like seasonal flooding in a representative OCONUS basin. Final Availability of tools for COCOM planner to explore consequences of water infrastructure project (e.g., new well or levee) on social dynamics in a representative OCONUS region.  What is the proposed transition strategy? PEO/PM Requirement(s) 24

25.  What are you trying to do? Improve the US Army and DoD’s ability to understand and forecast threats to national security and regional stability arising from hydrologic events and water resource decisions. Anticipate social consequences of water insecurity that may lead to conflict or provide room to maneuver for violent extremist organizations and/or international criminal organizations. Improve water resources investment decisions for stability and capacity building by accounting for their social and cultural context. Leverage USACE’s hydrologic and socio-cultural analysis capabilities to anticipate and safeguard against water security related issues, providing information for decision support in areas of potential conflict. Deliver usable capabilities to COCOM and other USG planners.  How is it done today, and what are the limits of current practices? Existing available demographic and social data (including imagery) varies by country and requires manual processing to integrate and generate compatible datasets. Hydrologic models have not been integrated with social or cultural models for either linear or interdependent forecasting. Land use and macro-economic models require methods to forecast stakeholder decision-making; current models assume U.S. decision-making processes without consideration of social or cultural differences. We are often unable to obtain hydrology results at the necessary resolution in a timely manner. Data required for existing weather & hydrology models exceed what is commonly available. Water Security

26.  What's new in your approach and why do you think it will be successful? Models that can account for social consequences of hydrologic conditions and events for areas of interest are not available.. We will apply ERDC expertise to translate analyses of risk, vulnerability to appropriate OCONUS social context and address issues of data (e.g., demographic, economic) availability. ERDC expertise can provide hydrologic modeling framework from local to watershed and basin scale with varying levels of fidelity based on the required level of resolution. We can leverage on-going collaboration and expertise to integrate remotely sensed data for simulation in data sparse regions. We will develop techniques to couple hydrology, socio-cultural models for use in decision, planning and assessment tools  Who cares? Regional Combatant Commanders (RCCs) must assess and monitor their areas of operations, engage as a partner with Militaries of other nations, and assure capacity is there in case of natural disaster or instability. These tools will provide a strong foundation on which to build the required Theater Campaign Plans. – Flooding analyses – J2, J5 COCOMs for prioritized contingency planning / planning disaster relief, AGC/UROC reachback – J2 multi-country plans to combat counter-terrorism, Nile River Basin Authority, Sudan RCCs must also make large financial decisions when executing contracts, often under the Commander’s Emergency Response Program. These tools will allow COCOM engineers and planners to include accurate hydrologic and socio- cultural factors when comparing alternative designs and prioritizing projects. Water Security

27.  If you're successful, what difference will it make? This effort will Provide the ability to identify groups and communities at high risk to changes in hydrologic conditions, and identify potential sources of instability. Bring hydrologic and socio-cultural analysis to bear on key planning activities from disaster relief to the prioritization and allocation of resources in the Commander’s Emergency Response Program (CERP) efforts or US Government infrastructure. Facilitate collaboration among the military, other U.S. government agencies, and partner nations by identifying water security issues and providing a means to exploring outcomes of proposed actions. Facilitate identification and prioritization of water infrastructure projects to meet civil, diplomatic, or military objectives. It will identify water infrastructure projects most appropriate for local, regional, and national consideration with guidelines for prioritization for civil, diplomatic, or military leadership. Water Security