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China.com February 24, 2000 BA 491 Emerging Markets Summer Xia, Patcharin Deprasertwong, Charlie Q. Lin, Dohee Kwon, Susan Mlodozeniec
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Agenda Company –Background, IPOs, Business Model and Strategies, Positives and Risks Internet Industry in Asia Risks and Concerns Valuations –DCF, Multiple Analysis, Cost of Capital Conclusions and Q&A
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China.Com First Pan-Asian Integrated Internet Company Portal Service On-line Advertising Web Solutions Addresses: –www.china.com –www.taiwan.com –www.hongkong.com –www.cww.com
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First IPO July 12, 1999 on NASDAQ 4.3 million shares at $20/share Closing price of $67.10/share $96.6 million in proceeds
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China.Com Stock Splits (2:1) December 14, 1999 Prior to split, closing price of $159.87 Closing on day of split: $98.125
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Secondary IPO January 21, 2000 No earnings: $4.4 million loss on $5.2 million in revenue for the three months ended Sept. 30, 1999 Nearly 5 million shares sold with offering price of $85/share Closed at $92.438
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CHINA.COM Performance
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Business Model Multinational Corporations Asia’s Leading Corporations Small to medium Sized business Enterprises Asian Governments ClientsThree Business Units Portal Network Content-Community-Commerce China.com,Hongkong.com,Taiwan.com Web Solutions Strategy Design Maintenance Enhancement Ad Network Pan-Asia Network China.com Portals 24/7 media partnership W orld Wide Web Content and Commerce Chinese users globally English language users interested the Greater China Market Yahoo! Netscape, 24/7 Media Xinhua News Agency, AOL, Agency France, Intel Strategic Alliances and Shareholders
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Low Internet and PC penetration Rapid growth in client base, page views, revenues Strong market positions, early mover advantage Integrated business model Expansion across Asia - organic & acquisition Fragmented industry Strong shareholders, potential strategic partners COMPANY POSITIVES
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Limited track record Increasing competition Reliance on partners, content-alliances Execution risk Network infrastructure and Telecom carriers Geographic risks COMPANY RISKS
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INTERNET INDUSTRY IN ASIA (OPPORTUNITY) IDC forecasted “number of internet users in Asia would grow by 33.4% and surpass growth of U.S users by the year 2003” China - Large population, government commitment on internet Hong Kong, Taiwan - Technologically sophisticated population, high penetration rate Asia - With a projected Internet user growth rate of over 30%, online opportunities will develop significantly in Asia
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INTERNET INDUSTRY IN CHINA (OPPORTUNITY) Growth Catalysts for China Market Prioritization of Internet development, says Gov’t - maintain global competitiveness, efficient processing of public sector Technology leapfrogging - TV-internet access, TV-based internet products Prioritization of Infrastructure Development - Growth in telephone infrastructure, 19M wireline subscriber/yr, wireline population penetration increase from 1.4% in 1993 to 8.7% in 1998
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INTERNET INDUSTRY IN CHINA (THREATS) Constraints of Internet Growth in China Lack of competition in the provision of telephony service Poor last-mile networks Long waiting lists for leased-line provision from China Telecom Lack of credit card availability and usage in China constrains e-commerce Small number of ISDN(integrated service digital network)
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RISKS AND CONCERNS Economic Risks Country Risks Company Risks
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ECONOMIC RISKS Volatile Asian Economic Climate - Reduce advertising in Asian market - Reduce web solution business - Liquidity problem Economic climate in Greater China - PRC: Slow domestic demand and inflation - Hong Kong: Deflation, Uncertainty in currency Peg - Taiwan : Recession, Volatility and depreciation of NT dollar
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COUNTRY RISKS Uncertainty in Internet laws & regulations - Government authorities can force ISPs to block a web site if believed to be socially destabilizing - Imposing strict ISP’s licensing requirements Currency risks - Future restriction on currency exchange, restriction on convertibility of Renminbi
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Limited track record Increasing competition Reliance on partners, content-alliances Execution risk Network infrastructure and Telecom carriers Geographic risks COMPANY RISKS
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AGENDA Management Forecast and Earning Projections Valuation - DCF model Main Assumptions
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MANAGEMENT FORECAST 100% CAGR from 1998 through 2001 Key drivers for its revenue in the future –Portal Network –Web Solutions –Advertising Sales
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PORTAL NETWORK Generate increased traffic through greater numbers of internet users –Enhancement of content –Establishment of co-branded portals and vertically integrate into own portals Increase from current 3% of total revenue to 5% in a long run
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WEB SOLUTIONS Primary revenue stream - 78% in 1998 –Web site design & maintenance services –Strategic consulting –Technical integration Web solutions service revenue is driven by –Number of paying clients –Annual average yield per account Overall growth will be over 100% through 2001
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ADVERTISING SALES Comprehensive ad solutions & targeted ad –175 affiliated web sites throughout Asia, Australia and US. –Share 30% -50% of the advertising revenues Ad revenue will grow to 60% of the total revenue –Steady growth in the total number of affiliated web sites –Aggregated daily page views
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VALUATION-DCF
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DCF - MAIN ASSUMPTION Revenue - will grow at over 100% till 2001, and 80% till 2004 The percentage of revenue from on-line advertising will surpass that from web solutions Won’t break even till the end of 2001 –EBIT is expected to 20% in 2003 from current negative 257% –SG&A will decline and stay stable at 30% –Staff will drop slightly from 25% to 20% –R&D will see significant increase, up to 15% from 7%
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DCF - MAIN ASSUMPTION (CON’T) Capex - significantly drop over the years Assume average $2 million each year for fixed assets acquisition Targeted debt Ratio - 15% Stable growth (2005 - 2009) - 60% Perpetuity growth rate - 9%
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DCF - SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
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DCF VALUATION : COST OF CAPITAL Tradiational Approach: CAPM Model
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International cost of Capital and Risk Calculator Step1: calculate country risk : China:19.9% Hong Kong:18.5% Taiwan:14.8% Hybrid rate: 18.0% DCF VALUATION : COST OF CAPITAL
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International cost of Capital and Risk Calculator Step 2: identify the Beta adjustment : Regression against Credit Lyonais Greater China Index DCF VALUATION: COST OF CAPITAL
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International cost of Capital and Risk Calculator Step 3: : Weighted Cost of Capital : DCF VALUATION : COST OF CAPITAL
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VALUATION BASED ON MULTIPLES We Use Price/Sales multiples:
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VALUATION BASED ON MULTIPLES How to price the Chinadotcom?
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Q&A
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