1. BBC Research & Consulting 3773 Cherry Creek North Drive, # 850 Denver, Colorado 80209 800-748-3222 www.bbcresearch.com January 5, 2006 Committee Meeting Garfield County Land Values and Solutions Study

2. 1 Land Values and Solutions Project Objectives Identify Land Value Determinants  Explain factors determining county residential land values  Document changes over time in county residential land values  Explore impact of gas well and other significant development on residential land values Solutions  Document and recommend potential impact mitigation strategies & best practices  Support/Communicate/Educate

3. 2 Land Value Analysis Process Gathered and analyzed land valuation data including:  property characteristics  location  geographic characteristics  current market value (Assessor’s data)  actual sales values  well locations and completion dates (COGCC data) Analyses included value trends, comparisons as well as multivariate statistical modeling

4. 3 Results: Values By Parcel Size (2003-2005) Land value varies greatly over different parcel sizes Valid Observations: Roaring Fork Valley= 192 CO River Valley River= 129 CO River Valley West= 70

5. 4 Results: Values Over Time and Location—Small Parcels Values for small parcels have grown in all areas of the county, remain highest in Roaring Fork Valley (1 to 5 acre parcels) 645 Valid Observations

6. 5 Results: Values Over Time and Location—Large Parcels Values for large parcels show similar trends, but lower values per acre (20-40 acre parcels) 415 Valid Observations

7. 6 Statistical Property Value Model

8. 7 Base model demonstration

9. 8 Challenges Wide variation in property characteristics and location Value effects across two dimensions — characteristics and time Land value per acre is non-linear Difficult to measure some key factors Date of gas well completion known — drilling period uncertain All data sets have some inaccuracies

10. 9 Limitations The statistical model is only a model Estimated effects are averages across all properties sold since 1987 Results primarily indicate direction and magnitude of value influences

11. 10 Conclusions Influences on property values we can quantify (at least approximately):  location  parcel size  infrastructure  appreciation (over time) Land values increase dramatically with subdivision and development Overall property values west of Glenwood have increased with recent energy boom