1. Monitoring Regional Trade Integration: The case of Africa Lelio Iapadre (University of L’Aquila and UNU-CRIS) 4 th GARNET Annual Conference IFAD, Rome, 13 November 2009 Based on P. Lelio Iapadre and Francesca Luchetti, Trade Regionalisation and Openness in Africa, background paper for the European Report on Development

2. United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies - UNU-CRIS The geographic scope of international integration National perspective – Openness to the rest of the world – Geographic diversification and concentration – The role of distance Regional perspective – Intra- and extra-regional integration Global perspective – Global integration as an average of national integration indicators – Intrinsically global processes, without reference to national borders

3. Regional Integration: Basic Concepts (UNU-CRIS, 2006 World Report on Regional Integration) Regional integration (a political definition): “the emergence of a governance level between the national and the global levels within the system of world governance, based on (regional) cooperative behaviour and the design of common policies and institutions by actors that traditionally belong(ed) to the national governance level” Regionalisation “a complex and multi-dimensional social transformation process, whereby the regional level is becoming a relevant space for many aspects of human behaviour and activities, driven by social and technological forces similar to those driving the globalisation process”

4. Regional trade integration Ex-ante measures: – Regional trade liberalisation Ex-post measures: – Trade regionalisation

5. Monitoring regional trade liberalisation Measurement needs – Measuring to what extent barriers to intra- regional trade have actually been removed – WTO consistency of preferential integration agreements Barriers to intra-regional trade Barriers to extra-regional trade

6. Monitoring regional trade liberalisation Quantitative indicators – Average tariff rates – Trade taxation ratios – Effective rates of protection – Non-tariff barriers coverage ratios – Tariff-equivalents of non-tariff barriers – Trade restrictiveness benchmarks – Composite indicators of trade restrictiveness – Indicators of market regulation – Sector coverage of integration policies

7. Monitoring regional trade liberalisation Qualitative indicators – Harmonisation of regulatory regimes – Rules of origin (symmetry and simplicity) – Transparency of custom procedures – Non-discrimination in the treatment of intellectual property rights – National treatment in investment regulations – Fairness of dispute-settlement procedures – Non-discrimination in government procurement – Harmonisation of competition rules

8. Monitoring trade regionalisation Measurement needs – Ex-ante: regional integration potential ‘Natural trading partners’ criteria Assessing the conditions for trade creation prevailing over trade diversion – Ex-post: trade effects of regional integration Intensity of intra-regional trade Trade creation and diversion

9. Monitoring trade regionalisation Statistical tools – Indicators of intra- and extra-regional trade intensity – Network analysis of regional trade – Methods to assess the impact of regional trade integration Gravity models Computable general equilibrium models

10. Indicators of trade regionalisation: the case of Africa Regional integration is often considered an important element of development strategies in Africa Welfare and growth effects of regional integration policies pass through their effects on trade Traditional indicators of intra-regional trade intensity can be misleading A correct measurement of intra-regional trade intensity is essential to estimate the impact of policies and improve the specification of gravity models

11. African regions Six non-overlapping African regions – Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) – North East Africa – Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) – Central Africa – East African Community (EAC) – Southern Africa

12. Trade shares Intra-regional trade share: S rr = t rr / t rw 0 ≤ S rr ≤ 1 where: t rr = intra-regional trade of region r; t rw = total trade of region r. Extra-regional trade share: 1 – S rr

13. Intra-regional trade shares in Africa are very low

14. Problems of trade shares Cross-region comparisons Time-series analysis for the same region Sensitivity to the number of countries (given the size of the region) Regions with a higher number of countries tend to show a higher intra-regional trade share An increase in the number of member countries increases a region’s intra- regional trade share Sensitivity to the size of the region (given the number of countries) Larger regions (in terms of total trade) tend to show a higher intra- regional trade share Pro-cyclical distortion

15. Trade intensity indices Intra-regional trade intensity I r = S rr / W r = (t rr / t rw ) / (t wr / t ww ) where: W r = region r’s weight in world trade t wr = world trade with region r = t rw t ww = world trade Extra-regional trade intensity E r = (1 – S rr ) / (1 – W r ) Geographical neutrality (no preferences) I r = 1 ↔ E r = 1

16. Intra-regional trade shares in Africa are very high in proportion to the regions’ shares of world trade.

17. Problems of trade intensity indices 1)Range variability: their maximum value is a function of the region’s total trade. 0 ≤ I r ≤ (t ww / t wr ) 0 ≤ E r ≤ [t ww / (t ww – t wr )] 2)Range asymmetry: their range below the threshold value of 1 is much smaller than above. 3)Dynamic ambiguity: intra- and extra-regional trade intensity indices can move in the same direction, if certain conditions hold.

18. A possible solution: revealed trade preference indices Regional trade introversion index J r = (HI r – HE r ) / (HI r + HE r ) -1 ≤ J r ≤ 1 where: HI r = S rr /V r ≡ (t rr /t rw )/(t or /t ow ) HE r = (1 – S rr ) /(1 – V r ) t or = region’s r extra-regional trade; t ow = total trade of the rest of the world. Regional trade extroversion index F r = (HE r – HI r ) / (HE r + HI r ) = – J r -1 ≤ F r ≤ 1 Geographical neutrality (no preferences) J r = 0 ↔ F r = 0 Bi-regional symmetry: for i = 1, 2 J 1 = J 2 and F 1 = F 2

19. Regional trade introversion is very high in Africa

21. Geographic direction of regional trade Another important aspect of trade regionalisation is the geographic diversification of intra-regional trade flows. If the distribution of intra-regional trade flows were proportional to the trade size of regional partners (neutrality), this could reveal that distance-related intra- regional barriers do not affect the direction of bilateral trade flows. Intra-regional geographic neutrality index (IRGNI i ): IRGNI i = 1 – Σ j≠i |IS ij – IV ij | /2 where: IS ij = partner j’s share of region i’s intra-regional trade; IV ij = partner j’s share of region i’s total extra-regional trade.

23. Regional trade openness A region’s relative degree of openness (O i ) can be measured by its trade-to-GDP ratio relative to the world average trade-to-GDP ratio: O i = (t i. /y i )/(T/Y) where: t i. =region i’s total trade. T=world trade. y i =region i’s gross domestic product (GDP) Y=world GDP. Symmetric indicator of relative trade openness (SO i ): SO i = {(t i. /y i ) – [(T – t i. )/(Y – y i )]} /{(t i. /y i ) + [(T – t i. )/(Y – y i )]} –1 ≤ SO i ≤ 1

24. The degree of trade openness of African RIAs is relatively low, notwithstanding the small size of their economies.

25. Raw materials and Africa’s trade

26. Conclusions Trade regionalisation in Africa is not low Regional trade introversion is very strong, even in comparison with other RIAs among developing countries This is due to their very limited capabilities in extra- regional trade (domestic and external barriers) rather than to the process of regional integration Trade introversion is falling in some African regions – Increase in African inter-regional trade intensity in the ‘90s – Increase in trade intensity with the rest of the world, but not with the EU

27. Conclusions Africa’s world export share has been sustained by sales of raw materials to emerging countries But its share of world manufacturing exports is still very low and has been declining in the last few years Regional integration policies can be very important to promote sustainable development in Africa Their success will, however, be measured more by their ability to create the necessary infrastructure for a more effective integration of African countries into world markets, than on their effect on intra-regional trade.