1. Climatic Impacts on Industry and Commerce

2. Outline Background Climate factors –Industry placement –Sensitivities of industry –Impacts on production Construction and Commerce The emerging climate industry

3. Background Research on climate and industry sparse Known impacts –Industry changes do not respond to weather –Industry changes may respond to climate but at long time scales –Climate affects people, who in turn affect industry (types, location, success)

4. Placement of Industry Emissions considerations –Inversion layers common? Precipitation Clarksville, TN Coal Fired Plant

5. Los Angeles, CA (2007)

8. Dispersion Modeling Determine sensitivities of an area to emissions Determine impacts of a chemical leak or spill Example: HYSPLIT model –Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model

9. http://www.arl.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT_info.php

10. Industry Climate Sensitivities [Table 14.2]

11. Industry Climate Sensitivities [Table 14.3]

12. Industry Climate Sensitivities Migration of workers to better climates –Asheville? Industry primarily vulnerable to extreme weather events Beyond that, climate change has little direct influence on industry

13. Climate affects GDP

14. IPCC (2007)

15. Construction Considerations Structural and architectural design Weather affects construction times and costs –Rain delays Examples –Recent civil suit in Bristol, VA –Tacoma Narrows Bridge (1940) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mclp9QmCGs

16. Construction Considerations Culvert not big enough to withstand large rainfall event

18. Construction Considerations Concrete must be set at certain temperatures –7-day cure between 65-85°F, < 100% RH Choice in construction site –Not too hot, not too cold, not too wet, not too dry, just right…

19. Climate and Commerce People respond to weather and climate changes in the things they buy and do –e.g. more ice cream on hot days Entertainment options –Ski resorts –Movies –Others?

20. Future Considerations Ice free Arctic passage –More efficient trade –Territory disputes More extreme events Sea Level Rise The new climate industry

21. An Emerging Industry? “Green” construction Bioenergy Renewable Energy Carbon trading ~ $100 billion already (2006, Climate Change Business Journal) 20-30% growth rate annually

22. Green Building Buildings use 72% electricity, 38% CO2 emissions, 30% waste output in U.S. $45 billion industry(2007)

23. Benefits of Green Building Environmental –Improve air and water quality –Reduce waste –Conserve natural resources Economic –Reduce operating costs –Improve employee productivity Health –Improve air, thermal, acoustic environments –Minimize strain on local infrastructure

24. Bioenergy Biofuels and biopower 21.1 billion in revenues (2007, 16% growth) Types of bioenergy –landfill gas to energy –ethanol –biomass gasification (combustion of biomass to produce CO, hydrogen, and methane) http://www.ers.usda.gov/features/bioenergy/

25. Impacts of Bioenergy Development Food prices going up –High corn demand –Less planting areas for other crops http://www.ers.usda.gov/multimedia/EthanolMay2007/

27. Ethanol Questions To power 1 vehicle for 1 year in U.S. on ethanol/gasoline blend** –11 acres farmland (food for 7 people) –131,000 BTUs to produce 1 gallon of ethanol 77,000 BTUs energy output from 1 gallon of ethanol Alternatives? –Brazil has sugarcane based biofuel 1 calorie of energy produces 8.2 calories of energy ** David Pimental, Cornell University

28. Renewable Energy Energy produced from natural resources –Solar –Wind –Tides –Geothermal 0.8% of global energy (2006) from these sources Biomass (13%) also renewable

29. Wind Power Industry Growing rapidly –45% growth in 2007 –$9 billion investment into the economy –Generate 1.5% of U.S. electricity (2008 – 5.7 million homes) http://www.awea.org/

31. http://www.awea.org/pubs/factsheets/Market_Update.pdf

32. Wind Power Potential

33. Solar Industry 3,850,000 x 10 18 J of energy absorbed by Earth’s atmosphere in 1 year –1 hour will power everything for 1 year

34. Solar Insolation If disks were populated with solar arrays, it would power the entire earth

35. “Passive” Solar Using sunlight without active mechanical systems –Sunlight for heat –Solar water heating –Natural ventilation –Selective shading / sun orientation

36. “Active” Solar Use of mechanical equipment to transfer solar energy into useable means –Photovoltaic panels –Pumps, fans –Alignment of solar cells

37. The Solar Industry 2008 – Record installations of photovoltaic (PV) installations –5.95 gigawatts (GW) –110% increase from 2007 82% of demand in Europe $37.1 billion revenues

38. Carbon Trading – A New Market Goal is to mitigate global carbon emissions Bring “buyers” (industry, power plants, etc.) and “sellers” (forest landowners, agricultural land) together Analogous to a salary cap in professional sports –Government or other entity sets the limit –Exceed the limit? Must buy credits –Below the limit? May sell credits

39. Carbon Market Critics Does not reduce carbon emissions –Non-polluting industries just sell credits to the highest bidder Focuses on short term carbon footprint rather than long-term strategic initiatives Grandfathering of older industries by governments (form of immunity)