1. 1 INFORM COLOMBIA DEVELOPMENT AND RESULTS April 20 th, 2015 Felipe Ortiz. MSc in Statistics

2. WHAT IS INFORM? 1.Composite Index For Risk Management (INFORM) is a tool for humanitarian risk analysis. 2.Allows an objective allocation of resources for disaster management. 3.Identify municipalities at risk. 4.Identify factors associated with humanitarian crisis. 5.Analyze how the risk change with time. 2

3. BACKGROUND 2006. (OCHA). Humanitarian Situation Risk Index (HSRI) https://data.hdx.rwlabs.org/dataset/indice-de-riesgo-de- situacion-humanitaria 2012. (UARIV). Victimization Risk Index (VRI). http://irv.unidadvictimas.gov.co 2012. (JRC) Index for Risk Management (INFORM). http://www.inform-index.org (2014). (UNICEF) Humanitarian Situation Risk Index for Children and Adolescent (HRSICA). 3

4. INFORM VULNERABILITY LACK OF COPING CAPACITY HAZARD & EXPOSURE Dimension CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK Measure the physical exposure associated with specific human and natural hazards. Represents economic, political and social characteristics of the community that can be destabilized in case of a hazard event. Measures the ability of a country to cope with disasters in terms of formal, organized activities and the effort of the country’s government as well as the existing infrastructure which contribute to the reduction of disaster risk Definition 4

5. INFORM VULNERABILITY Lack of Coping Capacity HAZARD & EXPOSURE NATURAL HUMAN Vulnerable Groups Socioeconomic Institutional & Infrastructure Dimension Category Component Landslides Seism Floods Volcano Drought Poverty and development Inequality Economic Dependence IDPs Indigenous Health Public services Education CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Victims Children & Adolescent, Tenn Mothers International Aid Road 5 Dimension CategoryComponent

6. NATURAL HAZARD & EXPOSURE UNGRD Affected (3 years) OCHA People at risk: Homicide Landslide Drought Seism Landslide Flood Volcano Seism Kidnapping Landmines HUMAN Sexual Offense Massacres Disappeared Homicide. P.P. Illegal crops Threat Attack on infrastructure Combat Warlike Actions 6

7. SOCIOECONOMIC VULNERABILITY Land Gini Coefficient VULNERABLE GROUPS Multidimensional Poverty Index Human Development Index Unsatisfied Basic Needs IDPs Child Mortality Adolescent Pregnancy Dependency Ratio Indigenous reservation areas 4W Beneficiaries & Funding Humanitarian Assistance for Natural Disasters 7

8. LACK OF COPING CAPACITY Health Care acc. (contrib). Health Care acc. (subsidized) DPT vaccination MMR vaccination Elementary school coverage Middle school coverage High school coverage. Electricity coverage Acc. Improved Water Source Acc. Improved Sanitation Facilities Roads quality Capacity Index UARIV Management Index Acc. Waste Management 8

9. STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY INFORM 1. Relative data - Rates 2. Rescaling into 0 – 10 range 3. Simple average for indicators taken over time 5. Missing data imputation 6. PCA inside categories 8. Rescaling into 0 – 10 range. 4. Smooth outliers 9. Cluster analysis in 5 groups 9 7. PCA for dimensions

10. PCA - WEIGHTS HAZARD AND EXPOSURE 10

11. PCA - WEIGHTS VULNERABILITY 11

12. PCA - WEIGHTS LACK OF COPING CAPACITY 12

13. PCA - WEIGHTS - DIMENSIONS 13

14. Amenaza Total Amenaza 7,06 – 10,00 4,92 – 7,05 3,13 – 4,91 1,61 – 3,12 0,00 – 1,60 Departamentos

15. Vulnerabilidad Total Vulnerabilidad 7,54 – 10,00 5,75 – 7,53 4,22 – 5,74 2,67 – 4,21 0,00 – 2,66 Departamental Borders

16. Falta de Capacidad de Respuesta Falta de Capacidad 7,85 – 10,00 6,60 – 7,84 4,92 – 6,59 2,58 – 4,91 0,00 – 2,57 Departamentos

17. Índice INFORM Colombia Índice INFORM 6,97 – 10,00 5,26 – 6,96 3,89 – 5,25 2,51 – 3,88 0,00 – 2,50 Departamento

18. 18 FELIPE ORTIZ afortizr@gmail.com @elbencino