1. Transportation in the U.S. Critical Infrastructure The Development of a Methodology and Mathematical Model for Assessing the Impacts of K Links Disconnects have on Defined Links of a Network

2. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 Outline Abstract Systems Engineering Process Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP): Transportation Objective Analysis Process Research Significance Resource Allocation Risk Mitigation Conclusion

3. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 Abstract By viewing the transportation critical infrastructure (CI) as a system-of-systems (SOS) and using a holistic approach coupled with Systems Engineering (SE) methodologies, it is possible to assess the criticality of a highway network based on disconnects within the network

4. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 The Systems Engineering Process Defining the System – System of Systems

5. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 CIP Transportation The transportation sector of the CI sector is vital to US citizens’ way of life as well as how corporations do business

6. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 CIP Transportation CI is increasingly becoming more crucial to the US Three areas in particular signify its importance Tonnage Complexity Costs Rise in Transportation

7. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 CIP Transportation Rise in Transportation Complexity Complexity Intermodal Destinations Departures Components Highways Airports Rail

8. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 Objective To measure the criticality of the network based cost and risk given disconnects occurring within the network Outcomes –Provide city and government officials a SE methodology to construct a model for understanding the impact of disconnects in the transportation network –Help in the decision making process Cost reduction Risk mitigation

9. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 Analysis Process Model –Highway Network

10. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 Analysis Process Mathematical Model to Approximate Costs ACCIDENTS CONSTRUCTION

11. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 Analysis Process Mathematical Model to Approximate Cost

12. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 Analysis Process Mathematical Model to Approximate Cost –Given Disconnect at node 16 during rush hour Estimated 7.87 deaths and 19.68 injuries Roughly 100 linear feet of highway demolished $10,078,833 Cost per death: $1,120,000 Cost per accident: $45,500 Cost per foot: $3,686

13. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 Research Significance Contribution: This dissertation provides officials a decision-making methodology and tool for resource allocation and risk mitigation –Metrics that measure the performance of the network given disconnects occurring –Ranking of K Links affecting the network the most

14. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 Example of Model: Performance for a General Metric OUTPUTS Sum of Performance, …, Research Significance

15. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 Example of Model Links Performance Worst Best OUTPUTS 0 is threshold K Links = {2,11}, …, {1,12} affecting the Transportation CI the most Research Significance

16. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 Research Significance Decision Making Methodology and Tool

17. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 Resource Allocation Efficiently allocate extra resources –Fire –Police –Surveillance

18. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 Risk Mitigation Heighten Awareness Develop Emergency and Contingency Plans Increase Surveillance Response Faster Enhance Efficiency Coverage

19. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 Conclusion Proposed a Methodology using a Mathematical Model to Determine Impact of K Links Disconnects have on the Defined Links of a Network for risk mitigation and resource allocation Research Significance –Society: A Methodology and Tool for Officials to use in the Decision Making Process –Engineering: Systems Engineering Approach for Solving Complex Systems

20. Systems Engineering Program Jerrell Stracener Director and Scholar in Residence http://engr.smu.edu/emis/sys/

21. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 School of Engineering Overview Academic Departments Computer Science and Engineering Electrical Engineering Engineering Management, Information and Systems (EMIS) Environmental and Civil Engineering Mechanical Engineering http://engr.smu.edu/emis/sys/

22. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 Program Overview Systems Engineering Program *=planned Academic Programs Training Research Center for Engineering Systems* http://engr.smu.edu/emis/sys/

23. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) Raytheon RMS Partnership SEP Partnerships Lockheed Martin Steve Kress, Lockheed Martin Missiles & Fire Control Randy Moore, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company Defense Acquisition University (DAU) Russell Vacante DAU Headquarters Brent Wells, SAS Randy Case, NCS Kent Pride, IIS Gunter Daley UGS Jerrell Stracener, SMU SEP NDIA Systems Engineering Division Bob Rassa Raytheon, SAS Russell Vacante DAU Headquarters http://engr.smu.edu/emis/sys/

24. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 Planned Research Focus U.S. Critical Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis utilizing Systems Engineering principles and methods (U.S. Navy SPAWAR CIPC Contract: April 2004) Systems Reliability Modeling & Analysis Defense System of Systems Modeling & Analysis utilizing Systems Engineering & Analysis principles and techniques Time to Failure Prediction Methodology based on based Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) http://engr.smu.edu/emis/sys/

25. © Gerard Ibarra, SMU 2005 QUESTIONS