1. Science Needs for Arctic Operations

2. Randall Luthi– Moderator – National Ocean Industries Association Erik Milito – American Petroleum Institute Gary Rasicot– U.S. Coast Guard RADM Jonathan White – U.S. Navy RADM Craig Bone (ret.) – American Bureau of Shipping Dave Benton – Consultant for the Alaska Seafood Industry

3. 2015 Public Policy Forum: Predicting and Preparing for a Changing Arctic Science Needs for Arctic Operations Erik Milito American Petroleum Institute

4. 2015 Public Policy Forum: Predicting and Preparing for a Changing Arctic Science Needs for Arctic Operations Gary Rasicot U.S. Coast Guard

5. 2015 Public Policy Forum: Predicting and Preparing for a Changing Arctic Science Needs for Arctic Operations RADM Jonathan White U.S. Navy

6. 6 Science Needs for Arctic Operations A National Security Perspective – U.S. Navy RADM Jonathan White Oceanographer and Navigator Of the Navy Director of Task Force Climate Change 4 March 2015

7. Northern Sea Route 2025: 6 weeks open 41’ controlling draft Transpolar Route 2025: 2 weeks open Deep ocean transit Northwest Passage 2025: intermittently open 33’ controlling draft Sea Routes Arctic Ice Coverage Sea route distances: Distance from the Bering Strait to Rotterdam 7

8. 8 Harsh operating environment  Non-ice hardened ships and limited ice breaking capability Limited comms and satellite sensors Limited Arctic experience Incomplete charting Limited ice- breaking capabilities Limited SAR assets Limited infrastructure High cost of operations Improving operational capabilities, expertise, and capacity to operate in the region……….Just like every other ocean around the world Identified Capability Gaps Sense environment parameters Forecast environmental parameters Predict impact of environmenta l conditions on naval systems

9. 9 9  Improved sea ice and weather forecasts  High-resolution Arctic System Models  Coupled ocean/wave/ice/atmosphere  Expanded forecasts (7 days, 1-3 months, 1 yr, 5-10 yrs)  Detailed ice location, thickness, age, movement  Platform/sensor development (buoys, hydrographic sensors, UAV/UUVs)  Remote sensing exploitation and algorithm development  High resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery  Data Assimilation techniques  Mitigate Effects of Sea Ice Impacts and Ice Loading  Arctic Center of Excellence Improving forecasts and predictions to support Navy operations worldwide

10. 10 Develop a Framework of Observations and Modeling to Support Forecasting and Prediction of Sea Ice  Objective: Improve sea ice forecasts and predictions at a variety of spatial and temporal scales DOD Lead: DOD Support: Charting, Models, Maritime Domain Awareness, Observations, etc. Under Title 10 the Navy is responsible “for safety and effectiveness of all maritime vessels, aircraft, and forces of the armed forces by means of: marine data collection, numerical modeling and forecasting hazardous weather and ocean conditions. As well as the collection and processing of Hydrographic Information.”

11. 11 Analyze: Ice edge position and MIZ extentPredict: Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS) Predict: 2-Day Ice Edge Outlook

12. 12 Analyze: Ice edge position and MIZ extent Predict: ESPC Regional Arctic Coupled Model FY 2022 Predict: 2 week sea ice forecast (location, thickness, age & movement) + 30/60/90 day Outlook

13. 13 ESPC: A unifying NATIONAL effort  one BEST operational “capability”

14. 14 Development of Arctic maritime capability requirements Arctic engagement Updating Fleet guidance for Arctic Operations and Training ICEX accelerated to bi-annual vice tri-annual event Science and Technology Plan Identify/evaluate U.S. and international infrastructure. Hull, propulsion and engineering requirements for Arctic Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA)- National Architecture Plan Maintaining steady strain on the right problems

15. 15 Discussion

16. 2015 Public Policy Forum: Predicting and Preparing for a Changing Arctic Science Needs for Arctic Operations RADM Craig Bone (ret.) American Bureau of Shipping

17. 2015 Public Policy Forum: Predicting and Preparing for a Changing Arctic Science Needs for Arctic Operations Dave Benton Consultant for the Alaska Seafood Industry

18. Science Needs for Arctic Operations QUESTIONS? Randall Luthi– Moderator – rluthi@noia.orgrluthi@noia.org Erik Milito – militoe@api.orgmilitoe@api.org Gary Rasicot – Gary.C.Rasicot@uscg.milGary.C.Rasicot@uscg.mil RADM Jonathan White – jonathan.white@navy.miljonathan.white@navy.mil RADM Craig Bone (ret.) – cbone@eagle.orgcbone@eagle.org Dave Benton – davebenton@gci.netdavebenton@gci.net