1. Are better educated migrants returning? Evidence from multi ‐ dimensional education data Tiit Tammaru, Enel Pungas, Ott Toomet University of Tarty Department of Geography NORCACE seminar 11-13 April 2012, University of Waikato, New Zealand This study was financially supported by European Social Fund Estonian Science Foundation

2. Motivation  Increased East-West migration in Europe  Issues related to „brain-drain“ and „brain gain“ in the focus of debates  Studies mainly based on level of education

3.  Literature review on education and return migration  Background of the research population  Main trends of Estonian-Finland migration  Characteristics of Estonian migrants in Finland  Intentions of return migration by education  Discussion Presentation outline

4. Literature review: Education and return migration

5. Relationship between the level of education and return migration  Less educated return (DaVanzo and Morrison 1981; Reyes 1997; Massey & Espinoza 1997; Curran & Rivero-Fuentes 2003)  Interpretation: Return migration is a correction of a failed move to a foreign country

6. Relationship between the level of education and return migration  Better educated return (Reicher 2001; Constant & Massey 2003; King and Newbold 2008; Bijwaard 2010)  Interpretations:  Better educated are spatially more mobile  They are valued also at country of origin especially when studyed abroad  Correction of the failed move to a foreign country

7. Other education dimensions highlighted in literature  Studies abroad (Borjas and Bratsberg 1996; Bijwaard 2010; Dustmann and Glitz 2011)  Over-education (Dustmann et al 2007; Kahanec 2009; Drinkwater et al 2009; Trevena 2011)

8. Aim of the study To study the associations between intentions of return migration and education Dimensions of education to be studied:  level of education (3 levels)  type of education (general/vocational)  education country (origin/destination)  perceived over-education (yes/no)

9. Background: Estonia-Finland migration

10. Case study countries  Estonia (EE) and Finland (FI)  Neighbouring countries  EE part of the Soviet Union 1944–1991  EE part of European Union since 2004 and eurozone since 2011  Similar languages but differences in wealth  No EE diaspora in FI up until 1991

11. Estonian migration with Finland, 1991-2010 Source: Statistics Finland

12. Estonian migration with Finland, 1991–2010 Source: Statistics Finland Immigration mainly implies return migration Immigration ca ¼ of emigration

13. Size of Estonian of Estonian diaspora in Finland, 1991–2010 Source: Statistics Finland Before 1991, almost no EE diaspora in FI In 2011, largest EE diaspora in FI In 2011, EE larges immigrant group in FI

14. Research data

15. Survey among EE migrants in FI  Spring 2009  1000 immigrant of EE origin living in FI  Sample drawn from the FI Population Register  Telephone interviews (30 min) conducted from EE  Survey company Turu-uuringute AS

16. Results

17. Emigration motive

18. Education of EE migrants in FI

19. Studied in FI by age at migration

20. Changes in the labour market position of EE migrants in FI

21. Intends to return from FI to EE Frequency Percent Yes 237 24 Otherwise 763 76

22. Intention to return EE by age at migration

23. Intention to return EE by years lived in FI

24. Results of the logistic regression, odds ratios (intends to return=1, otherwise=0)

25. Regression continued …

26. Robustness checks  Comparability problems with odds ratios across models, groups and samples (Mood 2010)  Linear Probability Models were estimated  Similar results were obtained

27. Discussion of the results

28.  Return migration intentions by education  no differences by level of education  people with vocational education wish somewhat more likely to return – education too specific?  FI education relates to higher return intention up until we control for age at migration  Over-education elevates intentions to return – but U-shape change in the labour market position

29. Discussion of the results  Other important differences in return intentions  EE ethnic minorities want to stay in FI, although Estonians are better integrated in FI  Migrants for better income have elevated return migration intentions  People out of labour force wish to stay in FI

30. Thank you! Tiit.Tammaru@ut.ee NORCACE seminar 11-13 April 2012, University of Waikato, New Zealand This study was financially supported by European Social Fund Estonian Science Foundation