1. Eugenijus Ušpuras Lithuanian Energy Institute Lithuanian Research Activities in Energy Security

2. Content 1. Energy security (research) institutions 2. Energy security research in Lithuania 3. Security of Energy Supply 4. Security of Energy Infrastructures

3. Energy security (research) institutions  Lithuanian Energy Institute (established in 1956)  Energy Security Research Centre – founded by Vytautas Magnus University (VMU) and Lithuanian Energy Institute (LEI) in 2008  NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence, established on 10 July 2012 (previously – Energy Security Center under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania)  Other institutions

4. Energy security research in Lithuania (1)  Ignalina NPP. Lithuanian Energy Institute (LEI) (Risk analysis, Accidents analysis);  Lithuanian Energy Strategy (1999; 2002; 2005: 2007);  Special Studies (e.g. Ignalina NPP decommissioning impact to Lithuanian economic security after 2010).

5. Energy security research in Lithuania (2)  State funded research project Development of methodologies of Security and Reliability Assessment of Energy Supply to Lithuania (2006-2008; 2009-2011).  Research Council of Lithuania funded National research programme Future Energy project Development of Methodology for Energy Security Analysis and Integrated Security Level Assessment (2010 – 2011).

6. Energy security research in Lithuania (3)  Research Council of Lithuania funded National research programme Future Energy project Development of Methodology for Optimal Integration of Future Technologies into Energy Sector (2011-2012).  Research Council of Lithuania funded National research programme Future Energy project Investigation of Lithuanian energy security and energy security level assessment (2012-2014).

7. Energy security research in Lithuania (4)  7FP project Security of Energy Considering Its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic Implications (SECURE) (2008-2010). The project developed appropriate tools for evaluating the vulnerability of the EU to the different energy supply risks, and for promoting the optimization of EU energy insecurity mitigation strategies, including investment, demand side management and dialogue with producing countries.  SECURE partners from France, Italy, Denmark, Lithuania (LEI), JRC, Germany, Switzerland, Russian Federation, UK, Belgium, Austria.

8. Energy security research in Lithuania (5)  Leonardo da Vinci programme project European energy supply security management coordinators UNDER way towards STANDard indicators for continuous vocational education and training (UNDERSTAND) (2006-2008).  UNDERSTAND is a pilot training project which is intended for the emergency planners and emergency operators of the European energy supply, transmission system operators (TSOs) in particular.  UNDERSTAND partners from Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Czech Republic, Lithuania (LEI), UK, Italy, Slovak Republic

9.  Energy security research we could divide into two branches:  Security of Energy Supply  Security of Energy Infrastructures

10. Security of Energy Supply

11. Assessment of Security of Energy Supply Different approaches are used for assessing security of energy supply in Lithuanian Energy Institute: economical modelling (MESSAGE model), disturbances impact to the energy system assessment employing probabilistic and deterministic models development of security indicators system for the assessment of energy security level.

12. Lithuanian electricity system model Lithuanian electricity system Lithuanian district heating system Poland, (ENTSO-E) Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Russia Sweden (Nordpool) Belarus, Russia (IPS/UPS) Kaliningrad (IPS/UPS)

13. Diagram of renewable energy sources flow

14. Economical modelling MESSAGE MODEL model is designed for planning energy sector in long perspective, where could be predictable technological process; optimization function is minimization of costs of energy system during the considered period. Using model it is possible to assess and compare different energy development strategies, alternatives of using different energy resources or new energy technologies. Applying sensitivity analysis it is possible to investigate the influence of particular indicators to functioning of energy system. Results: costs of energy production, then exits limitations of: primary energy resources, environment, policy.

15. Two parts of energy security Energy security analysis (ESA) Goal: Investigation of different energy threats, building disturbance scenarios, simulation of energy system reaction to disturbances, barriers and system resistance against different threats, assessment of possible consequences, identification of the worse situations and suggestion of mitigation measures. Assessment of energy security level Goal: Description of energy security indicators system, calculation of integrated characteristic – energy security level, comparison energy security levels for different countries or regions, different energy development scenarios, different energy policies.

16. Scheme of Energy security assessment methodology

17. Probabilistic Energy Security Analysis Threats Natural Economical Sociopolitical Terrorism Barriers Auxiliary systems Safety systems Physical protection Diversification Long term agreements Diplomacy Generators, power distribution and power supply networks, storages, suppliers, consumers. Energy system War conflicts Consequences mitigation Consequences Emergency plans Warning system Evacuation Deactivation First-aid Human lifes Damages of infrastructure Economical losses Sociopolitical disturbances Technological

18. Assessment of Energy Security Level Steps : Description of energy security indicators; Grouping of indicators to different blocks; Estimation of critical and precritical values of security indicators; Assessment of weights for indicators and blocks of indicators; Performance of sensitivity analysis of indicators in critical situations; Setting of indicators correlations matrix; Setting of functional systems and equations, which consists parameters energy security of supply; Calculation of energy security level.

19. Creation of a Security of Supply Index Export share of production External Suppliers Border crossings Reserves / consumption Country risk to border Replaceable share of gas Production share of consumption LNG terminals National storages Security of Supply Import pipelines Offshore pipelines risk Index allows for country specific characteristics Allows for assessment of SoS impact of new investments and policies Allows for analysis of scenarios SECURE - NATURAL GAS STAKEHOLDER MEETING Ramboll Oil & Gasas.com Stefan Schaar Kruse Senior Economist

20. Security of Supply in the EU – Risk and Impact Low impact –Low SoSHigh impact –Low SoS Low impact –High SoSHigh impact –High SoS Low SoS High SoS Swiden Finland Low impact High Impact

21.  Security of energy supply is assessed by analysing various energy system development scenarios  For example, just revising the last energy strategy more than 70 different development scenarios were analysed  All scenarios energy production price with various restrictions taking into account energy security were taken into account

22. Analysed energy system development scenarios Analysed scenarios were grouped in the following group:  Group of scenarios with various restrictions to the electricity import  Flexible non-nuclear scenarios without nuclear power plant  Scenarios with new nuclear power plant

23. Energy security level of analysed scenarios

24.  Economic analysis showed that scenarios with nuclear energy and restricted electricity import has slightly higher energy price  Assessing energy security as price increase and system resistance to possible perturbations, we can state that scenarios nuclear energy has higher energy security level

25. Security of Energy Infrastructures

26.  Two approaches are used:  Deterministic  Probabilistic

27.  The solution of the infrastructure security problem is consisting of two parts: 1. Identification of the critical elements of the infrastructure, the development of security plans. 2. The analysis and assessment of infrastructure criticality.

28. Scheme of energy infrastructure

29. Scheme of energy infrastructure (Lithuanian case)

30. Probabilistic Assessment of Critical Infrastructures Reliability and Security Assessment of Lithuanian Power Transmission System. Risk analysis of petrol transportation by trucks through Lithuanian roads

31. Probabilistic Assessment of Kaunas Hydropower System Kaunas hydropower plant (KHP) Kruonis hydro pump storage power plant (KHSP) KHP dam Flooding zone

32. Analysis of Aircraft Crash Structural response, Global level. Structural response, Semi-global level. Structural response, Local level. Fire analysis.

33. Global Analysis of Aircraft Crash

34. Concluding remarks  In Lithuania we have developed and approved methodology for energy security analysis  Energy security assessment is significant only when it is compared with other countries or regions. For that reason unified understanding of energy security and usage of the common methodology should be implemented  Methodologies developed in Lithuania could be a good starting point at least in Baltic States to introduce unified energy security assessment concept. That would enable to assess separate projects and entire situation.

35. Concluding remarks  Despite the fact that research in the field of energy security is performed in Lithuania, further collaboration and integration of efforts in this field should be accomplished in Baltic Sea region and entire Europe.

36.  Thank you for your attention  Eugenijus Ušpuras  uspuras@mail.lei.lt uspuras@mail.lei.lt