1. George W. Bush (43)

2. The 2000 Race Al Gore (D)Ralph Nader (G)

3. 2000 Election 2000 election results

4. Florida 2000 537 votes Legal Documents

5. The Questions Is the country polarized? Are there red and blue states?

6. Red States 2016 (180 EV)

7. Blue States 2016 (215 EV)

8. Swing States (143 EV)

9. The Country by County

10. Explaining Polarization If the US electorate is really polarized… 1.Party Changes 2.Urban vs. Rural, plus College Towns 3.Regional a)Solid South 4. Culture War: “Guns, God and Gays” 5.Result of “winner-take-all” system 6.Gerrymandering

11. 1. Party Changes Evolution of Parties since 1960s Homogenization of the parties Republican Party Conservatives and Moderates Democratic Party Conservatives and Liberals

12. 2. Urban vs. Rural, plus College Towns Population Density Matters Red State by County: Alabama Blue State by County: Illinois

13. Purple States by County VirginiaPennsylvania

14. 3. Regional: The South Switches 1952 1964

15. 4. Culture War: “Guns, God and Gays” Which one of these looks like freedom?

16. 5. Result of “winner-take-all” system Florida 2000: Red State? Presidential Candidate Vice Presidential Candidate Political Party Popular VoteElectoral Vote George W. BushRichard CheneyRepublican2,912,79048.85%25 Albert Gore Jr.Joseph LiebermanDemocratic2,912,25348.84%0 Ralph NaderWinona LaDukeGreen97,4881.63%0 Patrick BuchananEzola FosterReform17,4840.29%0 Harry BrowneArt OlivierLibertarian16,4150.28%0 Other (+)+--6,6800.11%0

17. 6. Gerrymandering: Ugly, UglierUglyUglier Governor Elbridge Gerry (MA) From Boston Gazette, March 1812

18. Explaining Polarization If the electorate is not polarized… 1.Polarization is an election strategy a)Polarized elites b)The use of fear 2.Low Turnout a)only the most ideological vote 3.Purple States: swing voters 4.Independents: alienated voters

19. 1. Polarization as an Election Strategy 1996 Gopac Memo 1996 Gopac Memo from Newt Gingrich

20. 2. Voter Turnout only the most ideological vote PresidentialMidterm PrimariesPrimaries 1992 55%1994 41% 1996 49%1998 38% 2000 51%2002 39% 2004 57%2006 40% 2008 58%2010 41%2010 18% 2012 55%2014 36% 2014 14%

21. Voter Turnout

22. 3. Purple States: swing voters (143 EV)

23. 4. Independents: alienated votersIndependents The center doesn’t vote? But the left and right do?

24. Bush Background Senator Prescott BushPres. GHW Bush (with Ike)

25. His Administration Foreign Affairs advisers: Bush II Domestic Policy advisers: W I Policies: Reagan III But: “Compassionate Conservatism” No Child Left Behind

26. Post-Modern Presidency? 1789-1933: Pre-Modern 1933-1989: Modern or Crisis Presidency 1989: End of the Crisis Presidency Post-Modern? –Bush-Clinton-Bush –Weak executive –Madisonian model –“Governor of the USA”

27. World Trade Center, NYC

28. Pentagon

29. Post-September 11 New Crisis Presidency Return to Modern Presidency Bush Address to Congress 9/20/01

30. Unitary Executive Theory Executive Power National Security Theme in Republican Presidencies –Nixon - Impoundment –Nixon - Watergate –Reagan – Iran-Contra

31. Bush and Presidential Power 1.Office of Homeland Security vs. Department of Homeland Security (DHS)(DHS) 2.Asking for Authority 1.AUMF 9/18/01 (Authorization to Use Military Force)AUMF 2.Authorization for Use of Military Force against Iraq Resolution of 2002, 9/16/02Iraq Resolution of 2002 3.Surveillance 4.Detainees

32. 5. Signing StatementsSigning Statements Standard US Governmental Process Congress introduces bill negotiation beginsExec-Leg Bill becomes agreementlaw Pres Introduces billExec-Leg disagreement Congress passes bill Pres vetoes Congress overrides

33. Standard Process with Signing Statement P. implements his version Congress of law introduces billExec-Leg negotiationagreement Bill becomes beginslaw Pres Introduces billExec-Leg disagreement Pres. signs bill anyway; Adds interpretation in signing statement

34. The Language in the Bush 43 Signing Statements “The executive branch shall construe {reference to the bill} in a manner consistent with the constitutional authority of the President to supervise the unitary executive branch.”

35. Executive Orders By President Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation 9/22/62Emancipation Proclamation FDR’s Orders 1937Orders 1937 Carter creates FEMA 7/20/79FEMA Bush creates HSC and OHS 10/8/01HSC and OHS Bush Military Order on Unlawful Enemy Combatants 11/13/01Military Order Obama Executive Order on Immigration 11/20/14Immigration

36. The Current Battle House Lawsuit against Obama Actions on Affordable Care Act The Resolution Authorizing the LawsuitResolution New York Times Wall Street Journal

37. Bush 43: The Slide Iraq Hurricane Katrina The Great Recession

39. Hurricane Katrina

40. US public opinion turns against the war Source: Scott Keeter, Trends in Public Opinion about the War in Iraq, 2003-2007, March 2007: http://pewresearch.org/pubs/431/trends-in- public-opinion-about-the-war-in-iraq-2003-2007 http://pewresearch.org/pubs/431/trends-in- public-opinion-about-the-war-in-iraq-2003-2007

41. The Great Recession

42. Bush Public Approval