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2009 Office Market Overview Presented by Spencer Stouffer Managing Director 703.770.3462 spencer.stouffer@cassidypinkard.com January 27, 2009
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Agenda 1.Cassidy & Pinkard Colliers 2.Capital Markets Overview 3.Office Statistics for DC area & Predictions –DC –Northern Va. –Maryland –GSA 4.Construction Pricing
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Leasing Portfolio of 53M square feet Management Portfolio of 21M square feet Largest Lease Deals in the Region Largest Finance Deals Sales – Transacted $1B of the $3.4B Cassidy & Pinkard Colliers
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320 million sf properties under management 210 million sf of space for lease $5 billion in annual capital market transactions $13 billion in transactions $800 million in construction projects 22,000 managed corporate facilities 2,000 employees 210 owners Cassidy & Pinkard – Consolidation New Company Overview
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Investment Sales Market
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Office Sales Lowest Since 1999 Washington Metro Area, $Volume Billions Source: Cassidy & Pinkard Colliers
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Loan Volume Dollar Volume ($Billions) Dollar VolumeLoan Volume CMBS Office Loans Maturing in DC Region
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Sales Volume Forecasted below $2B in 2009 Being in DC is good Back to Basics – Equity Contribution 2-3x 2007 levels You don ’ t want to be a Seller Pricing has changed (Cap rates up 200 bps) Recovery???? Relationships Matter Conclusions
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Office Leasing Market
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80-90% renewals Tenants & Tenant brokers skeptical regarding Landlord’s ability to perform (self-help, escrow) Moved from a “Negotiation” market to a “Competition” market Many deals being retraded at the last minute Sublease space inventory increasing Leasing – What is happening out there?
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District of Columbia: New Supply Mostly in Non-Core Markets Square Feet (Millions) Source: Cassidy & Pinkard Colliers
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Prediction “The District will be the only office market in the country to record positive absorption in 2009.”
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Northern Virginia Office Market
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Tenant Activity 8,000,000 sf of “Tenants in the Northern Va. Market” 20+ deals “in the market” over 75,000 sf
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Continued consolidation among large contractors – many "one off" offices will be closed at lease expiration Two or Three Gov. Contractors sign leases in excess of 400,000 sf in 2009 Predictions
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Construction Costs
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Metro Washington, DC Construction Market Cost ItemBudget (Jan. 1, 08)Budget (Jan. 1, 09) Hard Costs$45-$50$36-$41 A/E Design Costs/Peer Review /Permit Cost $5.00$4.50 Project Management/ Reimbursable $4.00$3.50 Project Contingency (10%)$5.00$4.00 Total Hard & Soft TI Costs$59.00-$64.00$48.00-$53.00 2009 Trends Approximately 20% Reduction in Cost
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GSA & Federal Leasing
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Big Deals: The Consolidation will Continue 2003 - 2008: Over 5.2 Million Square Feet of Consolidation Leases Median Size: 575,000 Square Feet 2009 – 2013: Well Over 4 Million Square Feet of Consolidation Demand Winners: NOMA, Southwest, Prince George’s TRENDS: What’s on the Federal Horizon Renewals will Continue for Sub-prospectus Leases 2005 – 2008: Renewals Exceeded 91% of Expiring Leases Poor GSA Planning will Continue to Result in Lease Holdovers Winners: CBD and Crystal City GSA Leasing Methodology Protests are Killing Source Selection Criteria Price Only Competition will Reemerge as the Standard Winners: No One! (maybe the taxpayers)
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Department of Transportation (DOT) Why?: $53.1 Billion of Emergency Stimulus Funding Submarkets of Influence: Southeast/Ballpark Area Likely Suspects: Contractors TRENDS: Sectors for Federal Growth “Which agencies will grow under Obama?” State Department (State) Why?: Diplomatic and Consular Affairs Expansion / Hillary Clinton Submarkets of Influence: CBD, West End, Rosslyn Likely Suspects: Federal Employees Department of Energy (DOE) Why?: Alternative Energy Strategy Submarkets of Influence: Southwest, Suburban Maryland Likely Suspects: Federal Employees and Contractors
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TRENDS: Sectors for Federal Growth National Institutes of Health (NIH) Why?: Medical Research / Health Care System Overhaul Submarkets of Influence: Suburban Maryland Likely Suspects: Federal Employees and Contractors Department of Education (EDU) Why?: $66 Billion of Emergency Stimulus Funding Submarkets of Influence: Southwest, CBD Likely Suspects: Federal Employees Health and Human Services (HHS) Why?: Health Care System Overhaul Submarkets of Influence: Suburban Maryland Likely Suspects: Federal Employees and Contractors
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Summary
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Summary We are fortunate to be in DC Area “Back to Basics” Service and Relationships Guiding Strategy – Bridge to the better market
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2009 Office Market Overview Presented by Spencer Stouffer Managing Director 703.770.3462 spencer.stouffer@cassidypinkard.com January 27, 2009
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