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Jonathan Pain Investing in the New Reality-Are You Ready?

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Presentation on theme: "Jonathan Pain Investing in the New Reality-Are You Ready?"— Presentation transcript:

1 Jonathan Pain Investing in the New Reality-Are You Ready?

2 A Journey from West to East, via the Middle East A complex and volatile world Identify the key themes Volatility brings opportunity

3 Submerging versus emerging Submerging nations will spend less and save more Emerging nations will spend more and save less Yes, it is as simple as that

4 The New Reality of Frugality Source: Ned Davis

5 Shop until you drop! Source: Bloomberg Total U.S household debt

6 The great new divide Submerging Iceland…go fishing Ireland Greece Portugal Spain USA U.K Japan...Et tu Italy Emerging China India Brazil Indonesia Vietnam Singapore...a role model?

7 Super Mario Does it Again LTRO- A game changer 489 billion plus 529.53 billion= A lot! Fiscal and credit contraction= recession Euro to survive

8 The winds of change Autocratic and repressive regimes Duplicity, democracy and stability Israel and Iran All eyes on the Straits of Hormuz TurmOIL in the Middle East

9 It’s up to you New York, New York Over 3 billion consumers in Asia China new frontier-its own backyard High speed rail Mobile phone sales in India (20 million a month) six million in 2002, eight hundred million in 2011 Chongqing

10 When China sneezes the world catches a cold! 2007-2012 China GDP 56%,India 43% (IMF) High income countries just 2% “ The BRIC’s will add $12 trillion over next decade – double eurozone and U.S” (Goldman Sachs)

11 Rise of Asian middle classes 570 million > $3,000 disposable income a year 945 million in 5 years Discretionary spending $ 2.9 trillion to $ 5.0 trillion Most significant economic phenomenon of our lifetime Source: CLSA

12 A maturing giant 10% average annual growth since 1978 Second largest economy slows Composition and quality of growth to change 7% growth in 2012

13 The Lucky Country 75% of our exports go to Asia Political headwinds Some relief from the RBA

14 Vietnam-A Phoenix Rises Doi Moi 1986 A young and literate nation Serves to illuminate the remarkable potential Is it not of imperial arrogance to assume...?

15 The adjustment we had to have Do you remember The Mother of All Crossroads?....2006 “ As we look to the West we see an economic giant that is in the first phase of a painful decline. As we look to the East we see a phenomenon that will shape and define our lives for decades to come.” 2008 was a defining moment in time which accelerated the inevitable.

16 Investing in The New Reality The rise of Asia is the defining and determining factor in portfolio construction Companies with exposure to Asian middle classes MV=PT and the mother of all monetary experiments MSCI-Mainly Submerging Country Index!

17 The New Reality World divided between submerging and emerging In an age of globalisation... In a digital age of technology,transparency and connectivity A fusion of East and West Welcome to The New Reality

18 This presentation has been prepared by JP Consulting (ACN 101 761 433) and is for general information only. Every effort has been made to ensure that it is accurate, however it is not intended to be a complete description of the matters described. It does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any securities advice or securities recommendation. Furthermore, it is not intended that it be relied on by recipients for the purpose of making investment decisions. JP Consulting does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information which is contained in this presentation. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, JP Consulting and its directors, employees and consultants do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this presentation or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise noted, JP Consulting is the source of all charts.


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