Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
1
The Transition in Armenia
USAID/E&E/PO Program Office Bureau for Europe and Eurasia U.S. Agency for International Development February 2005
2
Economic and Democratic Reforms in 2004
5 EU-15 Northern Tier CEE Hun Pol Lat Cze Est Sln Slk Lit 4 Mac Alb Cro Ser Bos Bul Rom Southern Tier CEE Kos Mont Geo Arm Aze 3 Eurasia Rus Tkm Mol Kyr Kaz Uzb Taj Bel Ukr Economic Reforms 2 EU-15 1 1 2 3 4 5 Democratic Reforms Ratings are based on a 1 to 5 scale, with 5 representing most advanced. USAID drawing from Freedom House, Nations in Transit 2004 (2004), and EBRD, Transition Report 2004 (November 2004).
3
Economic Reform in Armenia in 2004
First Stage Economic Reform First Stage Economic Reform Average of Northern Tier At Graduation Small Scale 5 Privatization, 4 4.0 Average of Romania & Bulgaria (2002) 3 2 Large Scale Privatization, 1 3.3 Trade and Foreign Exchange, 5.0 Price Liberalization , 5.0 Second Stage Economic Reform Infrastructure, 2.3 Non Bank Financial Reform, 2.0 Banking Reform, 2.3 Competition Policy, 2.0 Enterprise 1 2 3 4 5 Second Stage Economic Reform Average of Northern Tier At Graduation Average of Romania & Bulgaria (2002) Ratings are based on a scale from 1 to 5, with 5 representing the best score. USAID, Monitoring Country Progress in CEE & Eurasia #9 (2004 forthcoming) drawing from EBRD, Transition Report 2004 (November 2004).
4
EBRD, Transition Report 2004 (November 2004 and earlier editions).
Private Sector Share of GDP 80 60 65 70 55 76 2002 60 65 75 56 76 2004 45 60 48 70 1998 70 60 20 40 25 54 1994 50 40 % of GDP from Private Sector 30 20 15 15 10 10 10 9 Azerbaijan Georgia Armenia Eurasia Northern Tier CEE 1990 EBRD, Transition Report 2004 (November 2004 and earlier editions).
5
Democratic Reforms in Armenia in 2003
Average of NT CEE at graduation Civil Society, 3.5 Independent Media, 2.3 Governance / Public Admin, 2.6 Rule of Law, 2.4 Corruption, 1.9 Electoral Process, 1.9 1 2 3 4 5 Electoral Process, 1.9 5 Average of Romania and Bulgaria (2002) 4 Corruption, 1.9 3 Civil Society, 2 3.5 1 Independent Media, 2.3 Rule of Law, 2.4 Governance / Public Admin, 2.6 Ratings are based on a scale from 1 to 5, with 5 representing the best score. USAID, Monitoring Country Progress in CEE & Eurasia #9 (2004) drawing from Freedom House, Nations in Transit 2004.
6
Democratic Freedoms Democratic Freedoms 5 4 3 2 1 Northern Tier CEE
Southern Tier CEE 4 Georgia Armenia 3 greater freedoms Democratic Freedoms Eurasia Azerbaijan 2 1 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Ratings from 1 to 5, with 5 representing greatest development of political rights/civil liberties. The data are an aggregation of Freedom House’s political rights and civil liberties indices; Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2005 (2005 and previous editions).
7
Economic and Democratic Reforms in Armenia
5 4 2004 03 2002 3 2001 Economic Reforms 2000 1997 1996 1995 2 93-94 1992 1991 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 Democratic Reforms Ratings are based on a 1 to 5 scale, with 5 representing the most advanced. USAID drawing from EBRD, Transition Report 2004 (November 2004) & Freedom House, NIT (2004).
9
Democratic Reforms in Armenia
5 4 1998 2000 2002 2003 Democratic Reforms greater reforms 3 2 1 Civil Society Governance & Rule of Law Independent Media Electoral Process Anti-Corruption Pub. Admin. 1996 Freedom House, Nations in Transit 2004 (2004); Ratings from 1 to 5, with 5 representing greatest progress in democratic reforms.
10
Corruption Perceptions in 2004 Corruption Perceptions Index
(Transparency International) 1 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.8 4.6 Belarus Russia Uzbekistan Kazakhstan Ukraine Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan 2.0 GEORGIA 1.9 AZERBAIJAN 2 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.1 Bulgaria Croatia Bosnia & Herz Romania Macedonia Serbia & Mont Albania 2.8 3.1 ARMENIA 3 4.0 4.6 6.0 Slovenia Estonia Lithuania Latvia 3.9 4 4.2 4.8 5 Corruption Perceptions Index 6 7 7.5 8 9 9.7 10 USA Italy Haiti Finland Brazil Sudan El Salvador Mozambique Sierra Leone Bangladesh Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index 2004 (2004). Ratings on a 1 to 10, with 10 representing least amount of corruption.
11
Bribes in Businesses in Europe &Eurasia
5 5 Bribes as Share of Revenue 2002 Bribe Frequency 1999 & 2002 4.2 4 3.3 3.4 3.9 2.9 2.8 3.1 2.4 Kyrgyzstan Albania Azerbaijan Georgia Russia Armenia Czech Republic Estonia 4 3.8 3.4 3.3 2.8 3.0 2.3 2.4 2.2 3.3 3 3 2.8 2.8 1= Never, 6=Always % 2 2 1.4 1 0.9 0.9 1 0.4 1999 2002 Albania Georgia Russia Estonia Kyrgyzstan Azerbaijan Armenia Czech Republic World Bank, Anticorruption in Transition 2, Corruption in Enterprise-State Interactions in Europe and Central Asia (2004).
12
Share of Captor Firms in 1999 & 2002
60 50 40 30 % 20 10 Azerbaijan Georgia Lithuania Bosnia & Russia Bulgaria Armenia Herz World Bank, Anticorruption in Transition 2, Corruption in Enterprise-State Interactions in Europe and Central Asia (2004).
13
Degree of Impact of State Capture in 2002
World Bank, Anticorruption in Transition 2, Corruption in Enterprise-State Interactions in Europe and Central Asia (2004).
14
Starting and Closing a Business
10 India 225 10 Days to Start a Business Years to Close a Business 2 6 9 Russia Belarus Czech Republic 152 155 203 Brazil Congo Haiti Days to Register a Business Years to go Through Bankruptcy 200 9 8 175 7 150 25 Georgia 36 61 Russia Slovenia 123 Azerbaijan 6 125 5 100 4 3 Georgia 75 3 United States 3 Azerbaijan 3 50 2 Armenia 2 25 Armenia 25 1 Ireland Canada 1 2 5 Australia United States World Bank, Doing Business in 2005 (2004).
15
Economic Performance and Human Capital
in 5 Northern Tier CEE Lat Lit Est Hun Slk Cze Pol Sln 4 Southern Tier CEE Ser Cro Alb Rom Bos Mac Bul Mont Economic Performance 3 Aze Geo Arm Uzb Taj Kyr Tkm Kaz Rus Ukr Mol Eurasia Bel 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 Human Capital USAID, MCP#9 (2004) drawing from World Bank, World Development Indicators 2004 (2004); UNICEF, Social Monitor 2004 (2004); EBRD, Transition Report (November 2004); Ayyagari, Beck, and Demirguc-Kunt, Small and Medium Enterprises across the Globe: A New Database, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3127, (August 2003).
16
Economic Performance Index in Armenia in 2002 - 2004
External Debt % GDP, 3.5 Share of employment in SMEs, 0.5 Export share of GDP, 1.0 FDI pc cumulative, 1.5 GDP as % 89 GDP, 3.0 3 Year Avg Inflation, 4.5 Private Sector Share, 4.5 1 2 3 4 5 Average of NT CEE at graduation Private Sector Share, 4.5 5 External Debt 4 Average of Romania and Bulgaria (2002) % GDP, 3.5 Share of 3 employment in SMEs, 0.5 2 1 Export share 3 Year Avg of GDP, 1.0 Inflation, 4.5 FDI pc GDP as % 89 cumulative, GDP, 3.0 1.5 Ratings are based on a scale from 1 to 5, with 5 representing the best score. USAID, Monitoring Country Progress in CEE & Eurasia #9 (2004) drawing from World Bank, World Development Indicators 2004 (2004); EBRD, Transition Report (November 2004), M. Ayyagari, T. Beck, and A. Demirguc-Kunt, Small and Medium Enterprises across the Globe: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3127, August SME data no later than 1998.
17
Real GDP as % of 1989 GDP 130 Northern Tier CEE 120 110 100 Azerbaijan Southern Tier CEE Eurasia Georgia Armenia 90 80 70 1989 = 100 60 50 40 30 20 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 EBRD, Transition Report (November 2004).
18
Employment, Real Wages and GDP in Armenia
(as % 1989) 120 GDP Real Wages 100 Employment 80 1989=100 60 40 Employment in Industry 20 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 EBRD, Transition Report 2004 (November 2004 and earlier editions); UNICEF, Social Monitor 2004 (October 2004); and UNECE, Economic Survey of Europe, 2004 No. 2 (2004).
19
Informal Economy in 2002-03 % of the Size of GDP 80 68 70 61 60 49 48
Armenia 61 Azerbaijan 68 Georgia 48 El Salvador Bolivia Peru 60 50 44 Eurasia 40 38 Baltics 37 Southern Tier CEE % of the Size of GDP 30 25 Northern Tier CEE Less Baltics 20 15 Canada 8 United States 10 Schneider, Friedrich, “The Size of the Shadow Economies of 145 Countries all over the World: First Results over the Period 1999 to 2003 (December 2004).
20
Cumulative Foreign Direct Investment
4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 US$ per capita 2,500 Croatia Bulgaria FYR Macedonia Romania Albania Serbia & Montenegro Bosnia-Herzegovina 2,000 1,500 Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Russia 1,000 500 Georgia Armenia Turkmenistan Moldova Belarus Ukraine Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Tajikistan Estonia Hungary Slovakia Slovenia Latvia Poland Lithuania Czech Republic EBRD, Transition Report (November 2004).
21
Remittances as % GDP %GDP 30 25 20 15 10 5 World Bank UNICEF 25
USAID Funded Study 25 20 17 12 1.3 Yemen El Salvador Mexico UNICEF 16 17 13 6 4 10 National Statistics Survey of Republic of Armenia 15 14 13 9 3 2 0.6 Albania Bosnia Serbia & Montenegro Georgia Macedonia Armenia %GDP 9 IMF 10 5 0.2 EMU World Bank World Bank, World Development Indicators (2004); UNICEF, Social Monitor 2004 (October 2004).
22
In Migration and Out Migration in the World
0.5 High Income 0.4 0.3 EMU Migrants per 1,000 persons 0.2 0.1 0.0 LAC E&E -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 World Bank, World Development Indicators (2004). Migration and emigration are calculated as residuals from total population change less the natural change in population.
23
Net Migration Rates Migrants per 1,000 persons 0.5 High Income EMU LAC
0.0 E&E -0.5 Albania Kazakhstan Armenia -1.0 -1.5 Migrants per 1,000 persons -2.0 -2.5 -3.0 -3.5 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 World Bank, World Development Indicators (2004). Migration and emigration are calculated as residuals from total population change less the natural change in population.
24
Fertility Rates in E&E Children per Woman 5 Uzbekistan 4 Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan 3 Albania Azerbaijan Children per Woman Armenia Georgia 2 Russia Replacement Rate = 2.1 Slovenia 1 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 World Bank, World Development Indicators (2004). Missing values were interpolated.
25
Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) By Country of Origin
400 375 222 153 Bosnia-Herz 348 175 172 Liberia 350 300 250 200 Refugees and IDPs per 1,000 Persons 164 35 130 Afghanistan 133 63 71 Somalia 150 106 103 3 Lebanon 107 71 35 Azerbaijan 91 34 58 Croatia 100 60 18 42 Armenia 51 46 4 Georgia 48 36 12 Serbia-Mont 31 Colombia 31 20 11 Tajikistan 50 IDPs Refugees UNHCR, 2002 Statistics on Asylum-Seekers, Refugees and Others of Concern to UNHCR (2002). Refugees are foreign persons granted humanitarian status or temporary protection as recognized by the 1951 UN Refugee Convention. Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) are citizens who have been displaced from their homes and are under the protection of the UNHCR.
26
Human Capital Index in Armenia in 2002-03
Average of NT CEE at graduation Secondary School Enrollment, 2.0 Public Expenditure Education, 0.5 Life Expectancy, 4.5 Under 5 Mortality, 3.0 Health, 0.5 Per Capita Income, 1.5 1 2 3 4 5 Per Capita 5 Public Income, 1.5 Expenditure 4 Secondary Health, 0.5 3 School Enrollment, Average of Romania and Bulgaria (2002) 2 2.0 1 Public Expenditure Under 5 Education, Mortality, 3.0 0.5 Life Expectancy, 4.5 Ratings are based on a scale from 1 to 5, with 5 representing the best score. USAID, Monitoring Country Progress in CEE & Eurasia #9 (2004) drawing from World Bank, World Development Indicators 2004 (2004); UNICEF, Social Monitor 2004 (2004).
27
Life Expectancy at Birth
Armenia Georgia Southern Tier CEE Years for total Population Northern Tier CEE Eurasia a. World Bank estimate. b. UNICEF estimate. World Bank, World Development Indicators 2004 (April 2004). Missing data were estimated by interpolation.
28
Infant Mortality Rates
120 117 106 102 96 Azerbaijan 110 100 90 86 85 84 Central Asian Republics 80 60 49 35 Armenia 80 70 Per 1,000 Live Births 60 50 43 28 22 19 Southern Tier CEE 43 29 Georgia 40 35 21 22 Russia 35 27 24 West NIS 30 23 20 15 13 10 10 Northern Tier CEE 1980 1990 1995 2002 World Bank, World Development Indicators 2004 (April 2004). West NIS consists of Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine.
29
Poverty in Armenia % 70 Overall Poverty 67 Extreme Poverty 51 45 60 49
16 17 21 14 2001 / 2002 59 60 55 51 50 43 48 8 2003 40 35 % 30 30 23 20 18 10 Total Yerevan Other Rural Total Yerevan Other Rural urban urban 98/99 IMF, Republic of Armenia: 2004 Article IV Consultation, Sixth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility, and Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria (December 2004).
30
Tuberculosis Incidence
Kazakhstan 180 160 Georgia Kyrgyzstan 140 Romania 120 100 TB Cases per 100,000 persons Russia Ukraine 80 Azerbaijan 60 ARMENIA 40 Slovenia 20 EU-15 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 WHO, European Health for All Database (2004).
31
Public Expenditure on Health
EMU Czech Republic OECD Romania % GDP Azerbaijan ARMENIA Georgia UNICEF, Social Monitor (2004); World Bank, World Development Indicators (2004).
32
Smoking Prevalence in Adults in 1999-01
80 70 68 58 48 31 27 3 14 34 1 13 Armenia Ukraine Serbia-Mon. Azerbaijan Czech Male Female 60 50 45 16 E&E Male Female 40 Percentage 33 32 29 Denmark Male Female 29 25 UK Male Female 30 21 20 10 Male Female France World Health Organization; Tobacco Control Database E&E is a sample of 19 countries.
33
Tuberculosis Incidence
Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Romania Georgia TB Cases per 100,000 persons Russia Ukraine Azerbaijan Armenia Slovenia EU-15 WHO, European Health for All Database (2004).
34
Public Expenditure on Education
10 9 ARMENIA 8 Azerbaijan 7 Georgia 6 Poland OECD % GDP 5 Developing Countries 4 Romania 3 2 1 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 UNICEF, Social Monitor (2004); World Bank, World Development Indicators (2004).
35
Secondary School Enrollment
120 Poland Croatia Hungary 100 Bulgaria 80 Albania Russia % of population Moldova ARMENIA 60 AZERBAIJAN Tajikistan GEORGIA 40 20 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Gross rates; general secondary plus vocational/technical secondary combined. UNICEF, Social Monitor (2004).
36
Economic Freedom and Ruling Justly
Drawn from The Millennium Challenge Account dataset. The sample consists of 82 countries. Ratings are based on a 1 to 5 scale, with 5 being the most advanced. Economic freedom consists of six indicators: (a) country credit rating; (b) inflation; (c) regulatory quality; (d) fiscal balance; (e) trade policy; and (f) days to start a business. Ruling justly consists of six indicators: (a) control of corruption; (b) rule of law; (c) voice and accountability; (d) government effectiveness; (e) civil liberties; and (f) political rights.
37
Economic Freedom and Investing in People
Drawn from The Millennium Challenge Account dataset. The sample consists of 82 countries. Ratings are based on a 1 to 5 scale, with 5 being the most advanced. Economic freedom consists of six indicators: (a) country credit rating; (b) inflation; (c) regulatory quality; (d) fiscal balance; (e) trade policy; and (f) days to start a business. Investing in people consists of four indicators: (a) immunization rate (DPT and measles); (b) primary education completion rate; (c) public primary education spending; and (d) public expenditure on health.
38
Armenia & MCA in 2003- 2004 Economic Freedom Ruling Justly
Median Ruling Justly Investing in People Ratings are based on a scale from 1 to 5, with 5 representing the best score. The Sample consists of 82 countries. Data are drawn from The Millennium Challenge Account dataset.
Similar presentations
