1. Participation: Mark DeMaria (NESDIS), John Knaff (CSIRA/CSU), Buck Sampson (NRL/JTWC), Michelle Mainelli (NHC), Isaac Ginis (URI), Lynn Shan (RSMAS). Work supported by NOAA Research to Operations Program (Stan Wilson) TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL Gustavo Jorge Goni NOAA/AOML/PHOD gustavo.goni@noaa.gov 2007 OCO Meeting June 2007 www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/altimetry/tchp

2. Tropical Cyclones 15% 12% 30% 12%7% 12%

3. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential Shay et al, 2000 Goni and Trinanes, 2002 Lin et al, 2005 Mainelli et al, 2007 Goni et al, 2007 Gulf of Mexico: Opal (95), Bret (99), Ivan (04), Wilma, Rita, and Katrina (05) Caribbean Sea: Mitch (98) NW Pacific: Imbudo (03), Maemi (03) Mozambique Channel: Eline (00), Hudah (00), Japhet (03)

4. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential o NOAA/AOML ASTEP Altimetry-derived Synthetic TEmperature Profiles. 0.2 degree resolution. Real-time. Daily fields. Public. o NOAA/NCEP GODAS Global Ocean Data Assimilation System. 1x1deg resolution. Monthly fields. Public. o UM HYCOM HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model. Very high spatial resolution. Delay-time. o NOAA/NHC OHC 2-layer scheme. Daily fields. Real-time. ESTIMATES o NOAA SHIPS Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme:. A statistical-synoptic model available to the National Hurricane Center since the mid- 1990s (DeMaria and Kaplan, 1994). Runs with NHC OHC fields. Atlantic basin only. o NOAA STIPS Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme. Runs with AOML ASTEP TCHP fields. All ocean basins except Atlantic Ocean. o NOAA GFDL A triply-nested movable mesh primitive equation model developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Bender et al, 1993), providing forecasts since the 1992 hurricane season. NHC OHC assimilated into model. Advanced version under development at URI. TC INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS

5. Impact of NHC/OHC Assimilation into GFDL Ocean Model Observed No Assimilation With NHC OHC Assimilation

6. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential Fields compare well on global scale Comparison with in situ data shows roughly comparable errors NCEP GODAS AOML ASTEP

7. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential GODAS and AOMLTCHP just before Hurricane Katrina (Aug 2005) The Gulf warm core eddy is missing in the GODAS fields Lack of mesoscale features in GODAS limits its utility for TC intensity forecasts NCEP GODASAOML ASTEP

8. RSM SH and EKE HYCOM Performance

9. Intensity Forecast Model Comparison

10. Atlantic Sample (DT): 3072 SHIPS Model Forecasts 1995-2006 West Pacific Sample (RT): 311 STIPS Model Forecasts 2006 Impact of TCHP Assimilation into SHIPS and STIPS models

11. Improvements in Operational SHIPS Forecasts from OHC for all Recent Cat 5 Hurricanes Impact of NHC OHC Assimilation into SHIPS Atlantic model Katrina, Rita, mean 5% Wilma 13% Ivan 20%

12. NOAA-ASTEP Altimetry-derived Synthetic TEmperature Profiles

13. Altimetry-derived Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential May 2006 conditions May 2007 conditions Global validation for May 30, 2007

14. SWIO Tropical Cyclone Hudah (2000) Goni et al, 2007

15. SWIO Tropical Cyclone Hudah (2000) 0.3C/day cooling 0.15/day warming Heat content mixed layer != heat content upper layer

16. Current Conditions

17. Altimetry Products www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/satprod

18. How well the ocean observing system is supporting this work ? Altimetry = excellently In-situ observations = good in some areas, bad in others (Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) Recommendations Support the continuation of high precision altimetry missions – resolve mesoscale Improve the observing system for tropical cyclone intensification studies

19. Thank you