1. SAFEFOODERA Stakeholder Group Meeting With Industry - Emerging Risks - Copenhagen, 14 - 15 December 2006

2. Why Emerging Risk Identification? -Important tool for a timely recognition of critical situations; -Offers an increased number of options for action to the risk management. Consequently emerging risk identification is a crucial part of any coherent, effective and dynamic food policy. (In Europe: Article 34 of Regulation (EC) No. 178/2002) Emerging Risk Identification

3. -Long- term consequences and impacts of factors outside the food chain are usually neglected, assuming that the food supply production chain is self-contained in operation, space and time; -Models are usually based on recording of past occurrences, setting boundaries and levels rather than a formal evaluation of various cross-cutting upstream interacting processes (driving forces) influencing the evolution of a risk; -Risk assessment methods often ignore the human factor or use simplistic or standardised schemes of behaviour. Present Limitations of Risk Analysis

4. PERIAPT- Workshop (Bonn, July 2004) Invited participants representing different stakeholder groups, ranging from inter- national organisations, various research institutions, industry, consumer organisations to governmental bodies. PERIAPTs core event

5. Definitions Risk means a function of the probability of an adverse health effect and the severity of that effect, consequential to a hazard; Hazard means a biological, chemical or physical agent in, or condition of, food or feed with the potential to cause an adverse health effect; Article 3 of Regulation (EC) No. 178/2002

6. Definitions Emerging Risk: A potential food or feed borne or diet-related hazard that may become a risk for human health in the (near) future. Periapt 2004

7. Characteristics of an Emerging Risk Identification System Anticipatory appraoch instead of responsive systems; different from, but not a replacement of Early Warning Systems: -Early warning or rapid alert systems like the European RASFF, the Canadian Global Public Health Intelligence Network (GPHIN), or the WHO network INFOSAN; -Shields in case of cyber- /food-terrorism and anti-tampering including task force systems like EU-BICHAT.

8. AWACS (Airborne Early Warning and Control System) Early Warning System: AWACS The detected indicator (signal) is the hazard itself

9. D A R T Deep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis Early Warning System: Tsunami Again, the detected indicators (signal) is the hazard itself!

10. Methodology Pro-active Methodology: Climate Forecast Meteorological Station (Bavarian Alps) Weather Balloon (Antarctica) Drought (Africa) Observed indicators are not part of the hazard but (possibly) suitable to detect a risk proactively. Flooding (Prague)

11. Emerging Risks: The Holistic Approach The holistic vision (Periapt 2004): Analysing the host environment of the food supply chain.

12. EconomyGlobalisation Globalisation makes the food production chain increasingly complex. Hence, reliable information on the history of food is hard to get (limitations in traceability). Nature & Environment Climate A climate change may lead to a modification of the behaviour of microorganisms leading to new or different biological food risks... The holistic vision: Examples

13. Flow diagram holistic approach Example (short term forecast): Emerging risk of contamination of crop by mycotoxin-producing moulds: PERIAPT 2004 Influentialsectors Influential sectors Criticalfactors Critical factorsIndicators Nature & Environment ClimateRainfall

14. Status in 5 – 15 years –> Will fish from the arctic regions still be safe to eat? Slowly degradable, semivolatile organic compounds (SOCs) may undergo a volatilization-transport-deposition cycle through the atmosphere Threats: Interdisciplinary, complex and global issue

15. What to do? (1)To deal with emerging risks in the field of food safety, it seems necessary to move from a re-active attitude towards a pro-active identification of food related risks. (2)Driving forces of emerging food borne risks are eclectic and often not directly linked to the food production chain. The plurality of factors involved needs to be taken into account. Key issues need to be identified and weighted.

16. (3)Knowledge needs to be combined coming from a larger variety of disciplines and areas of expertise (holistic approach). Additional emphasis is needed to bring together specialised knowledge in every aspect of risk issues. A dialogue between the disciplines should be enhanced e.g. by setting up interdisciplinary networks. (4)Since influential (critical) factors are undergoing fundamental changes; attention is needed to take changing conditions into consideration. What to do?

17. Thank you for your attention and season greetings!