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2011 Construction Market Forecast & Precast Detail Kenneth Kruse, FPCI,FCPCI March 18, 2011
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2 Market Update Contents Construction Market Forecast Summary Total Construction by Building Type US State Detail, attached Cement Consumption US & State Projections Concrete Projections by Industry Segment for reference Precast Snap Shot Selected Building Parking Projections Bridge Projections “I do not always use concrete, But when I do,I use Precast!’
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3 Market Forecast Snapshot 2010 the market saw a slight contraction -1 % Overall Construction Starts Commercial contracted (-14%) Cement Consumption (+0.3%) Precast/Prestressed concrete (PCI) production flat (0%) Precast concrete (NPCA) (-6%) 2011 the market will be on the up swing according to several major forecasting services +5% Overall Construction Starts ( McGraw Hill) +1.4% (Portland Cement Association) +2% (Global Insights) PIP Precast/Prestressed concrete production +5% Precast concrete (NPCA) +2%
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4 Construction Starts 2011 F to 2015 F MH CMFS 1 st Qtr 2011
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5 March 17,2011 US Department of Commerce Home Construction plunged 22.5% in February from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 479,000 units Original 2011 Projection was 580,000 units Building permits fell 8.1% in February to its lowest level on record dating to 1960. The US DJIA is off 5% since the first of the year and suffered its first pull back since August 2010. Why? Japan Oil Middle East Unrest
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6 Construction Starts 1980 to 2010 actual 2011 to 2015 P
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7 Construction Starts Total Building Detail MH CMFS 1 st Qtr 2011
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8 US Forecast PIP Global Insights
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9 Regional Projections
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10 Portland Cement Consumption PCA The -26.9 % contraction in cement consumption for 2009 was the largest decline in over 20 years ! For 2010, cement consumption was + 0.3%. Flat 2011 Forecast is for US cement consumption to +1.4%
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11 Cement Forecast PCA Cement Consumption will be + 1.4% in 2011
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12 Cement Consumption Projections PCA
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13 Cement Consumption by Selected State
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14 Cement Consumption by Sector – 2010 Portland Cement Association Precast - Prestressed 10.3% Other 5% Ready Mixed – 73.4% CMU, Pavers, SRWs – 11.3% 115,000,000 Metric Tons
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15 2009 Regional Cement Consumption
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16 2011 Cement Consumption by Region PCA
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17 US Ready Mix Production Snap Shot 73 % of Concrete Production in US 2010 0% 256 M yd32011P + 4% 269 M yd3 Lost almost 100 M yd3 2008 vs 2009 Lost 200 M cy3 from 2005 to 2009
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18 Precast Inventoried Products (NPCA) +2 % P for 2011 -6% in 2010
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19 MCP Market History Source: Freedonia September 2010 Report 2010 7.7 6500 -2.0% -9.0% 2011 8.2 6950 8.0% +6.8%
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20 Precast /Prestressed Snapshot
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21 PCI Type Sales 2009 Member Survey 2010 data not available yet
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22 Primary Segments of Precast Construction Industry Sales (Percent) 2009 Other includes Stores, Hospitals, Multifamily, Religious, sport complexes, Government, Hotels and Residential
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23 Construction Starts $ and Sq Ft for Key Building Types MH & Reed December 2010
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24 Schools & Bridges $ Starts
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25 Parking
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26 Top Parking Garage Construction By State Top 10 States for Parking Garage Construction 1)California 2)New York 3)Texas 4)Illinois 5)Ohio 6)Florida 7)District of Columbia 8)Pennsylvania 9)Washington 10)Virginia
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27 Bridge Construction Highway and bridge construction will decelerate as the ARRA’s beneficial effects diminish. Activity will slip 4% in 2011 before rebounding somewhat in 2012. Very slow rates of job growth mean that federal, state and local revenues will increase slowly, at best, over the next few years, constraining spending across the board. The current forecast for highway and bridge construction is down almost $3 billion for the six years 2010 to 2015.
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28 So what about the Precast/Prestressed Market ? Year% GrowthPCI Type Sales ($B) 20063%5.2 20075%5.5 2008-15%4.7 2009-42 %$3.4 20100%$3.4 20115%3.6Based on current data 201215%4.1 2013 10%4.5 20143%4.6
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29 Precast/Prestressed Industry Revenue $ Billions 2006 to 2010 Actual 2011 to 2015 Projections
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30 Opportunities for 2011 & Beyond 2011 the US market will be on the up swing +5% Overall Construction( MH) +1.4% (PCA) +2 (GI) +5% Precast concrete production Opportunities in Sustainability!
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31 Sustainable Construction is a great opportunity for Precast/ Prestressed Even though commercial construction has contracted the last 3 years, the number of USGBC LEED projects has continued to grow!
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32 Sustainable Commercial Projects Are Growing! LEED Registered Projects- Commercial
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33 Sustainable Commercial Projects Are Growing! LEED Certified Projects - Commercial
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34 Sustainable Commercial Projects Are Growing! Square Feet
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35 MAPA State Detail Forecast 2010 to 2015 PIP New York Virginia Washington DC Pennsylvania West Virginia Delaware New Jersey Maryland i
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36 New York+3%
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37 Virginia -2%
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38 Washington DC +8%
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39 Maryland+10%
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40 PA+3%
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41 New Jersey-1%
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42 WV+1%
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43 Delaware-1%
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