1. Some Thoughts on Our Possible Energy Futures (In Pictures) Maryland Clean Energy Summit 2013 Comments of Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting October 16, 2013

2. Public Policy Consulting www.rbinz.com

4. Credit: University of California, Riverside

5. Credit: C2ES.org

6. Credit: Energy Information Administration

7. Credit: Edison Electric Institute

9. Credit: Consumer Energy Solutions

11. Credit: Energy Information Administration

12. Credit: Citibank

13. Credit: World Nuclear Association

14. WECC (2032): Potential Bypass Threats from Distributed Generation are Large WECC-wide Behind-the-Meter DG: 19 GW of solar PV + 7 GW of CHP Distributed PV based on “interconnection potential” (no back-flow through feeders), with adjustments to reflect relative economics among states CHP additions represent a fixed percentage (~40%) of technical potential in each state Percent of 2032 Peak Demand Source: E3 (2013). Credit: Western Electricity Coordinating Council

15. Credit: Solar Energy Industries Association

18. MarylandColorado New JerseyGermany Arizona Credit: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

20. Credit: California ISO

23. Credit: Citibank

27. Renewable Electricity Futures Study (REF) Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures Available at NREL.gov Credit: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

28. Baseline Case Credit: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

29. REF ITI Case Credit: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

30. How does the assumption of an HREF affect the business model?  Much higher levels of variable generation at the bulk power scale  Greater penetration of distributed energy resources at the distribution scale  Greater need for flexibility in the grid components, operations, and architecture  Much higher levels of energy efficiency (sufficient to eliminate load growth) (affects utility organization, operations) (affects utility revenues, services) (affects utility investment, operations) (affects utility role, services)

31. Authors –Ron Binz –Richard Sedano –Denise Furey –Dan Mullen Available at www.ceres.org

32. Credit: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

34. The Last Word 111(d)

35. Thank You Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting rbinz@rbinz.com