1. Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012 17 October 2005 Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.de ECOFYS Cologne, Germany

2. Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012 ECOFYS Energy and Environment European research and consulting company In total 250 employees in the Netherlands, Germany, UK, Spain, Poland, Belgium, Italy Example projects: –Evaluation of the national allocation plans of the EU emission trading system for the UK government –Work on future international climate commitments for, e.g., the German Environmental Agency and EU Commission –Capacity building: Centres of excellence for CDM in India and South Africa

3. Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012 Future international action on climate change network Collecting information -Activities -Institutions -Ideas Discussion forum www.fiacc.net Funded by -German Federal Environmental Agency -EU Commissions DG Environment

4. Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012 Negotiation history UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): Industrialized countries reduce emissions to 1990 level in 2000 1992 Kyoto Protocol: Industrialized countries reduce 5% below 1990 in 2008 to 2012 Open questions remain 1997 Detailed rules for the Kyoto Protocol are agreed (Emission trading, CDM, JI) 2001 Kyoto Protocol enters into force 16 Feb 2005 USA rejects the Kyoto Protocol Mach 2001 Conference of the Parties (COP) decides to hold a seminar on the future in May 2005 Nov 2004

5. Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012 Content Official / high level discussions May 2005:UNFCCC Seminar of Governmental Experts (SOGE) June 2005:G8 Summit July 2005: Asia-Pacific Partnership on Development and Climate August 2005:Greenland ministerial dialogue on climate change September 2005:Ministerial meeting in Ottawa October 2005:Informal Meeting organized by Japan/Brazil November 2005:COP11 and COP/MOP1 Informal / content dialogues September 2005:OECD Annex I Expert Group September 2005:Pew Center October 2005:Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP)

6. Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012 UNFCCC Seminar of Governmental Experts (SOGE) First time to talk about the future in the UNFCCC context - open, informal and relaxed atmosphere No detailed proposals on how to move forward. EU was modest Themes Compensation for avoided deforestation. Papua New Guinea: include deforestation and right emission target then it would obtain "Kyoto Protocol Annex I" status Simplification of CDM: Currently not living up to expectations Montreal Mandate: Called for by South Africa, Mexico, Argentina, Switzerland, EU,...

7. Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012 G8 Summit Will Continue dialogue on climate, energy and development (G8 +5 developing countries to meet 1 November 2005) At the same time strengthening of the UNFCCC as the negotiation forum Gleneagles plan of action: –Transforming the way we use energy –Powering a cleaner future –Promoting research and development –Financing the transition to cleaner energy –Managing the impact of climate change –Tackling illegal logging Created large momentum and efforts in the preparation, but did not change position of the USA

8. Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012 Asia-Pacific Partnership on Development and Climate Initiative by Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, USA Agree to cooperate on technologies including energy efficiency, clean coal, carbon capture and storage, methane capture and use, civilian nuclear power, advanced transportation, agriculture and forestry, hydropower, wind, solar, … Meeting was scheduled for November but postponed

9. Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012 Greenland ministerial dialogue on climate change 22 Ministers and heads of delegation (August 2005): The blaming game has to stop COP/MOP1: development of the CDM beyond 2012 Develop an inclusive strategy beyond 2012: general interest in exploring new options: –sectoral targets –voluntary commitments –further differentiation using different types of commitments

10. Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012 Content Official / high level discussions May 2005:UNFCCC Seminar of Governmental Experts (SOGE) June 2005:G8 Summit July 2005: Asia-Pacific Partnership on Development and Climate August 2005:Greenland ministerial dialogue on climate change September 2005:Ministerial meeting in Ottawa October 2005:Informal Meeting organized by Japan/Brazil November 2005:COP11 and COP/MOP1 Informal / content dialogues September 2005:OECD Annex I Expert Group September 2005:Pew Center October 2005:Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP)

11. Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012 COP 11 and COP/MOP 1 Possible compromise Continue the preparatory dialogue Agreement on negotiating mandate at COP 12 (2006) to finalize negotiations in 2008 Under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol Canadas guidelines Enhance environmental effectiveness Advance sustainable development goals Broaden participation (sector strategies) Building a strong global emissions market Realise full potential of technology Tackle adaptation

12. Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012 Content Official / high level discussions May 2005:UNFCCC Seminar of Governmental Experts (SOGE) June 2005:G8 Summit July 2005: Asia-Pacific Partnership on Development and Climate August 2005:Greenland ministerial dialogue on climate change September 2005:Ministerial meeting in Ottawa October 2005:Informal Meeting organized by Japan/Brazil November 2005:COP11 and COP/MOP1 Informal / content dialogues September 2005:OECD Annex I Expert Group September 2005:Pew Center October 2005:Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP)

13. Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012 OECD Annex I expert group Topics Sectoral crediting mechanism (extended CDM) Compatibility of different types of commitments with emission trading (dynamic targets, price cap, sector targets) Options for integrating different approaches (e.g. emission targets and technology protocol): Comparison of efforts difficult but not necessarily impossible

14. Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012 PEW center Strawman elements Aspirational Long-Term Goal: in temperature or concentration Targets and Trading: Absolute, dynamic and no lose targets Sectoral: Sector targets and trading, performance or technology standards Sustainable development policies: Verified reductions can be traded Technology: Coordinate research on long term technologies Adaptation –Include adaptation in lending practice of multilateral banks –offer subsidized climate disaster insurance to middle-income developing countries

15. Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012 Center for Clean Air Policy Issues Sector-based straw man proposal: voluntary no lose carbon intensity targets for the energy and major industry sectors in developing countries, coupled with absolute emissions limits in developed countries Prospects of merging different international efforts Insurance based approaches on adaptation

16. Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012 Conclusions Increasing momentum, more activities than ever Strong focus on alternatives to absolute binding emission targets –Dynamic targets, price caps,… –Sectoral targets / sectoral standards –Technology agreements Accordingly: How can such different systems be merged/compared? Incentives for developing country participation: No lose targets, sector crediting mechanisms, sustainable development policies, revisiting CDM