1. Indian Agricultural Research Institute
Climate Change and Indian Agriculture: Current Focus and Future Priorities
P.K. Aggarwal
Indian Agricultural Research Institute
New Delhi, India

2. Climate and Indian Agriculture
Indian agriculture is considerably dependant on changes in weather
Contribution of agriculture to GDP is decreasing, yet large population dependent on this for livelihoods
Need to understand the impacts of increasing climatic risks and possible adaptations

3. Approach: Experiments & modelling
Models of food production

4. InfoCrop: A User-friendly Crop Modelling System
Model responds to change in:
Environment: Radiation, temperature, CO2, rainfall, wind speed, vapor pressure, flooding, frost
Soil
Variety
Agronomic Management
Pests population
Has been validated for rice, wheat, maize, sorghum, cotton, potato, groundnut, soybean, mustard in different agro-climatic regions

5. Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Wheat Yields in North India

6. Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change Scenarios on Wheat Yields in North India
2080
2050
2020

7. Impact of Climate Change on Food Supply

8. Impact of Climate Change on Food Production
Demand
Supply

9. Impact of Climate Change on Food Production

10. Impact of Climate Change on Food Production

11. Agro-Ecological Regions

12. Validation of InfoCrop for wheat producing states
Another validation with the parent model-WTGROWS- using FACE experiment at USA- showed good agreement with field observations

13. Regional climate change scenarios
PRECIS: A2 scenario
Daily values for period

14. Total number of frost days at Delhi for observed and baseline scenario

15. Total number of rainy days at Delhi for observed and baseline scenario

16. Impact of climate change on wheat yields in a pessimistic technology scenario HaDCM3-2020
05-10
00-05
-05-00
-05-10
-10-20
-20-40
>-40
% Change in yield

17. Impact of climate change on wheat yields in a pessimistic technology scenario
2020
2050
05-10
00-05
-05-00
-05-10
-10-20
-20-40
>-40
% Change in yield
HaDCM3 scenarios

18. Impact of climate change on wheat yields in a paradise technology scenario
2020
2050
05-10
00-05
-05-00
-05-10
-10-20
-20-40
>-40
% Change in yield
HaDCM3 scenarios

19. Declining Response of Wheat to Improved Management in Global Warming Scenarios

20. Relation of Recent Weather Trends with Yields of Paddy and Wheat
Yield (Mg ha-1)
Year
Radiation (MJ m-2 d-1) 10 15 20 25
1985
1990
1995
2000 5
Min Temp. (°C) 17 19 21 23
Tmin, C
Decline in yield is apparently also related to decrease in radiation and increase in minimum temperature

21. Evidences in Recent Past:
Estimated impact of heat wave in March 2004 on wheat production
Increased heat: oC in north and central India from 5th March to 28th March, 2004
Caused a loss of 4.5 million tons of wheat

22. Estimated impact of heat wave in March 2004 on wheat production

23. Adaptation in agriculture is a continuous process
Agriculture diversity is a manifestation of climatic adaptation
Farmers/society have always adapted when allowed by technology availability, their socio-economic capacity, and economics.
Induced adaptation by innovation:
Green revolution of 1960s
Resource conservation technologies such as zero tillage
GMOs

24. Drought proofing by mixed cropping Low yielding, tolerant crops
Traditional adaptations/coping strategies to climatic stress practiced by farmers
Drought proofing by mixed cropping
Low yielding, tolerant crops
Resource conservation
Single cropping
Frost management by irrigation
Heat stress alleviation by frequent irrigation
Shelter belts

25. Adaptation options to climatic change: autonomous
Changing varieties/crops
altering fertiliser rates to maintain grain or fruit quality and be more suited to the prevailing climate,
altering amounts and timing of irrigation
‘harvest’ water
conserve soil moisture (e.g. crop residue retention)
use water more effectively
altering the timing or location of cropping activities
diversifying income including livestock raising

26. Scope of autonomous adaptations in wheat in north India in different scenarios

27. Constraints in autonomous adaptations
Availability at desired time
Fields for desired activity
Extension services for management of adapted variety, if different
Seeds of adapted varieties
Irrigation water, fertilizer and machinery
Costs of adaptation- unknown

28. Adaptation options to climatic change: Planned
Investments in adaptation research capacity
Improved communication of climate changes and options to adapt to them
Investments in infrastructure for water management and for product transportation and marketing
Changes in policies and institutions, e.g. incentives for resource conservation and use efficiency
Credit for transition to adaptation technologies
Relocation to more productive areas
Creating alternate livelihood options and reducing dependence on agriculture
Greater insurance coverage for the farm

29. Conclusions

30. Future priorities: Complex future agriculture scenario
Increasing demands for food
Reducing/stagnating crop yields: fatigue of intensive agriculture and climate change
Reducing availability of natural resources for agriculture
Need for increased resources: land, water, fertilizers, capital
Need to preserve environment
Greater environmental impact of agriculture

31. Agriculture in an Uncertain Future: Need for Integrated Action
Assess vulnerability of agriculture to global climate change in a changing global scenario (demands, markets, technologies, natural resources)
Develop research infrastructure for assessment of direct impacts- FACE, FATE
Develop models for integrated assessment
Need to link ‘sectoral’ research- scenarios of climate change- water resources – agriculture and other sectors- policy -feedbacks
Identify research/technology/policy options for short-term
Focus on ‘no-regrets’ options

35. Indian National Network Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability of Indian Agriculture to Climatic Change Involves 16 research institutes, >60 scientists

36. Specific Information Needs
Impact on food (crops, milk, fish) demand and supply- spatial and temporal differences
Impact on nutrition – cereals, legumes, oil crops
Impact on commercial crops (quality and quantity)- spices, tea, coffee, medicinal plants
Impact on trade – internal and external
Impact on natural resources- soil, water and air
Impact on farmer’s livelihood
Options to enhance adaptive capacity - farmer level, regional differences, government level
Potential of agricultural land as carbon sink
Policy implications: link with current development plans

37. Information Needs on Vulnerability of Agricultural Sector
Can we remain self-sufficient in food despite global climatic changes, urbanization and trade liberalization?
Which regions and the social groups are more vulnerable to climatic change?
How will enhanced climatic risks affect livelihoods of resource-poor farmers- hill, coastal, tribals?
How should different farmers adapt to cope with climate change ? (in the background of changing scenario of demand and markets)

38. Mitigation of Climatic Change/ Feedbacks on Environment : Information Needs
Can alternate land use systems such as plantations and agroforestry increase carbon sequestration and yet meet food demand?
How much area can be taken out from agriculture for forestry; where and what policy measures would be needed?
How much carbon is conserved by limited tillage options? For how long ?
What is the potential of biofuels for carbon mitigation; what policies and technologies would ensure their adoption by farming community?

39. Need for research infrastructure