1. PEADAR KIRBY PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL POLITICS AND PUBLIC POLICY, UNIVERSITY OF LIMERICK, IRELAND ADJUNCT PROFESSOR, FACULTY OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, UNIVERSITY OF ICELAND FALL SEMINAR SERIES: EUROPE REYKJAVIK, NOVEMBER 11 TH 2011 Towards a Second Republic: Irish politics after the Celtic Tiger

2. The politics of collapse Unlike Greece and Iceland, the Irish have not revolted o Instead they used the ballot box in February 2011  Extent of Fianna Fáil collapse dramatic  Few parallels around the world o But what is the longer-term impact going to be:  On the party system in Ireland?  On the Irish development model?  On Ireland’s place in the EU?

3. February 2011 election Most dramatic change since independence: o FF had never got less than 38% of vote since 1932 o Always the largest party in Dáil and never out of power for more than one term  Vote down from 41% in 2007 to 17.4% in 2011  From 78 seats to 20; now down to 19, none in Dublin o Fine Gael largest party with 78 seats; Labour doubled to 37 seats o 43% of vote to left-wing candidates: over 60 in new Dáil

4. Evidence of presidential election Voted for president on October 27 th o Largest vote in history of state, over 1 million, to left-wing Labour candidate, Michael D. Higgins o Yet maverick former FF figure almost beat him Illustrates radical shifts but also great volatility FF not gaining in polls and coalition parties maintaining support: o If recovery happens they may consolidate their position o If not, will FF make a comeback or will left gain?

5. Reform agenda With hands tied by bailout, focus on political reform o Pledged to most radical reform agenda since foundation of state:  Greater powers to committees to hold executive to account  Radical reform of local government  Promise of constitutional convention to rewrite Constitution o Discourse of ‘Second Republic’: re-founding the institutions of the state

6. What is absent Reform agenda very one-sided: o Complete silence on model of development:  Collapse revealed ‘regulation-lite’: how might state re-position itself?  Central role of property in Irish economy: how build a more productive indigenous sector?  Disturbing consensus on refusal to raise corporation tax  So how re-balance tax system to develop a ‘normal European system’?  Role of private banks: now in state hands but no discussion as to how state should build a banking system to serve needs of economy and society

7. Alternative models I From neoliberal model to what? o We propose two options:  Support in civil society movements for a developmental social democratic model:  Less dependence on FDI, develop indigenous sector  More ambition to build better quality health and security systems  Address deep-rooted inequalities in society  Needs a more fair and effective taxation and welfare system  Trade union leadership are the ones most espousing this, little debate among left parties

8. Alternative models II Acknowledge challenges of climate change and peak oil: how affect options? o We identify possibility of more ecological model:  This we name an ethical or ecological socialism:  Manage transition towards a steady state economy  Plan for less mobility and more local sourcing of resources  Needs a radical reform of taxation system to tax environmental ‘bads’ (carbon, pollution)  How to develop a state strong enough to impose severe limits on GHG emissions but held accountable by a vibrant democracy?

9. Role of EU Paradox: o Never such an appetite for reform but state ‘in receivership’ o Is EU membership a help or a hindrance? We make a more nuanced assessment of the ambiguities of membership: o Huge benefits but perhaps overstated o Collapse makes us realise that EU couldn’t prevent poor governance and ineffective regulation

10. EU contribution to our crisis Many argue we never faced hard challenges of development: o Always privileged private interests over public ones:  Did EU allow this to happen?  Allowed us maintain low taxes while benefiting from high structural funds: Germans did our social investment  Free-ride with ‘soft options’ in a populist political culture o Membership of euro created conditions for crisis:  Easy liquidity allowed Irish banks lend recklessly  Low interest rates fuelled bubble economy

11. EU contribution to solution Eurozone crisis may help us if it can be resolved: o It will require greater fiscal and economic co-ordination and oversight:  Put pressure on Ireland’s low-tax model, especially corporation tax  Also German proposals to harmonise labour laws  Need to curb excess of financial markets through greater regulation o All of these challenge basic tenets of Ireland’s neoliberal model

12. A wake up call For the first time, Irish people are being forced to choose: o Low taxes or decent public services? o Use EU to get grants or to co-ordinate policy also? o Allow markets rule or regulate for public good? Angry with EU but we know we need them: o New government successful in regaining credibility and winning support from EU partners o Yet we face four more years of austerity o EU may yet sink us or help save us: future very unsure