1. The Shape of Things to Come: Why Age Structure Matters to a Safer, More Equitable World Association for International Agriculture and Rural Development Annual Meeting June 4, 2007 Elizabeth Leahy Population Action International

2. Demographics of Youth Largest generation of young people in history 3.5 billion people ages 0-29 worldwide 87% in less developed regions By 2025, all growth in world youth population will occur in less developed regions Pressures on natural resources, rural  urban migration

3. Age Structure Defined Importance of the demographic transition for development Share of people younger than 30 in a population compared to share of people age 60+ Each country is one of 4 major types of age structures: 1. Very Young (>67% under 30) 2. Youthful (60-67% under 30) 3. Transitional (45-60% under 30) 4. Mature (<45% under 30)

4. Key Findings Population age structure impacts countries’ stability, governance, economic development Very young and youthful age structures present greatest challenges to development Age structures are dynamic and can be influenced and shaped through policies

5. Very Young Age Structures 62 countries: most of sub- Saharan Africa, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, 3 countries in Central America, Haiti, Laos High mortality and fertility rates

6. Youthful Age Structures 27 countries: Bangladesh, Bolivia, Jordan, Morocco, Nepal, Peru, Philippines, Saudi Arabia Fertility rates declining, but still above replacement level

7. Transitional Age Structures 40 countries: Brazil, China, India, Israel, Indonesia, Lebanon, Malaysia, Mexico, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam Middle of demographic transition

8. Fertility decline creates economic opportunities Greater per capita spending and savings Higher wages and increased capital investment “Window of opportunity” lasts 40-60 years Countries with transitional structures are nearing end of window of opportunity; youthful structures at beginning The Demographic Dividend

9. Mature Age Structures 47 countries: Nearly all of Europe, Canada, Cuba, Russia, South Korea, Australia, U.S. Low mortality and fertility rates

10. Age Structure and Conflict 80% of all new conflicts occurred in countries in which at least 60% of the population was under age 30.

11. Age Structure and Governance Nearly 90% of countries with very young structures had autocratic or weakly democratic governments. More than 80% of countries with mature age structures were fully democratic.

12. Mexico 1975 - 2005 Transitional 59% under 30 Very Young 73% under 30

13. World Age Structures 2005

14. Policy Recommendations Achieve more balanced age structures: - Comprehensive policies - Adequate funding - Political commitment Improve access to family planning Education and employment opportunities for women and youth