1. An airborne portable expendable probe receiver/processor system for operational acquisition and transmission of ocean observations from WC-130J tropical cyclone flights 1 Science Applications International, Inc. 2 Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, California 3 Office of Naval Research, Arlington, VA 4 Naval Oceanographic Office, Stennis Space Center, MS 5 REL, Inc. and USAF (ret), Biloxi, MS 6 Naval Research Lab, Stennis Space Center, MS 64 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Savannah, GA 1-4 March, 2010 Peter G. Black 1,2, Daniel Eleuterio 3, Jeff Kerling 4, Robert E. Lee 5 and Dong-Shan Ko 6

2. ITOP/TCS10: Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific An experiment to bring the latest in airborne, An experiment to bring the latest in airborne, shipborne and moored buoy observational technology to bear on the Tropical Cyclone-Ocean-Intensity change forecast problem This at a time when multiple agencies (NAVY, NOAA, This at a time when multiple agencies (NAVY, NOAA, NCAR- HFIP partners) are bringing coupled TC-ocean models on line which require observations of initial variables in both the atmosphere and the ocean ONR has provided resources for the development of an ONR has provided resources for the development of an operational airborne ocean probe deployment and dissemination system as a first step

3. ITOP/TCS10: Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific: 3 Key Objectives What is the three dimensional response of the What is the three dimensional response of the ocean to typhoons? ocean to typhoons? How do ocean eddies affect this response? How do ocean eddies affect this response? How does the ocean response affect typhoon How does the ocean response affect typhoon intensity? intensity?

4. TPARC/TCS08: Legacy for AXBT/Drifter Missions: 26 Mission Flight Hours: 263 High-Level Missions, 300mb: 12 TC 700mb Missions: 12 Buoy Deployment Missions: 2 Tropical Cyclones: 4 WC-130J Aircraft Flights

5. TPARC/TCS08 Experiment TPARC/TCS08 Experiment Tools: WC-130J Aircraft (2) GPS dropsonde (750, ~ 26/flt) for atmospheric profiling (high-altitude) AXBT*- ocean thermal profiling (250, ~ 13/flt) ADOS profiler/ Minimet drift buoys- 3D ocean structure, surface currents (24) SFMR- surface winds Radar Video Recording*- TC structure * First used in TCS08

6. TPARC/TCS08 Experiment Objective : TEST HYPOTHESIS Typhoon Intensity Change, including Rapid Intensification (RI) and Rapid Filling (RF), is driven by large-scale conditioning: Atmospheric environmental interaction Oceanic Variability

7. TPARC/TCS08 Experiment Strategy: MOBILE Develop a MOBILE TC and ocean observing system to define TC intensity while observing background ocean conditions and ocean-TC interaction MORPHS into ITOP/TCS10 Strategy

8. TPARC/TCS08 Commonality with ITOP/TCS10: I.Variability in oceanic heat input to TC large: knowledge required for coupled models II.Rapid Intensity Change (RI/RF) accounts for more than half of the large TC intensity forecast errors. III.Strategic and economic consequences for un-forecasted RI/RF, which occur in only 15% of the TC life cycle, account for 85% of TC losses. Why Investigate Oceanic Role in TC Rapid Intensity Change and vice versa?

9. Ko, NRL Stennis AXBT’s help to adjust model-predicted eddy locations D26 100 m 50 m

10. SATCON Intensity: Velden, CIMSS Hawkins, NRL TCS08 Jangmi Sept, 2008 Track, Intensity Change Aircraft JMA 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/26 9/27 9/28 9/29 9/30 10/1 10/2 920 900 940 960 980 1000 Pressure (mb) 0 50 100 150 Wind Speed (kt) Rapid Intensification Rapid Filling Aircraft Pmin OHC Gradient Landfall Kuroshio Rapid Structure Change X X Aircraft Vmax X X

11. 27 Sept, 1134 27 Sept, 2132 28 Sept, 0006 OHC Gradient Cold,Shallow Warm, Deep Bands Decay: Dry Slot Forms Eyewall shrinks, asymmetric band structure forms Eyewall open west, NW quad rainbands Disappear: DRY Slot 27 Sept, 0445 STY Jangmi Rapid Structure Change Time Concentric Eyewalls: Peak Intensity SSTA

12. Jangmi COAMPS-TC Forecasts with TCDI Initialization Jangmi track is well captured by both the coupled and uncoupled 5 km simulations over the first 3 days, but the forecast tracks deviate significantly from the observed over the last 24 h. The rapid intensity change (both intensification and weakening) in the coupled run compares more favorably with the observations than the uncoupled run. Cold eddy bndry Landfall 252627282930

13. Jangmi OHC 25-30 Sept 08 6-HR interval

14. Jangmi Ocean Heat Content: 00 UTC 25 Sept.

15. JangmiSSTA2008 26 Sept JangmiSSTA2008 28 Sept JangmiOHC 27 Aug

16. TCS08 AXBT Locations Ko, NRL Stennis AXBT vs NRL Ocean Model Initial Conditions TCS08 Ocean Heat Content Obs: Concurrent with GPS dropsondes Preview of ITOP2010 Model underpredicts high heat content Ocean Heat Content (OHC)

17. AXBT System Components Clewless Operator- weak link Pop-up keyboard, folding screen, computers, MK10 Audio recorders, MK-10, UPS Inverter C Compact, portable rack-mount cases

18. WC-130J AXBT Photos

19. Loading AXBT Chute Launching AXBT AXBT Probes and Cases Receiving/Processing AXBTs - Lou

20. Data Processing JJXX 01088 2253/ 11125 14126 88888 00296 44295 65292 84287 99901 03280 23274 36271 45263 53258 63247 69239 73231 80226 83222 86211 87205 92190 99902 01180 05177 09164 11158 20152 33148 38147 45138 49135 54130 64125 92113 99903 07105 25098 46092 73089 99904 38085 99905 91069 99907 18062 99909 15053 AF53 1) 2) 3)

21. Science CONCLUSIONS There is a strong relation between TC Rapid Intensity Change, warm/cold ocean eddy boundaries and differing TC-ocean interaction in those regions- likely a function of storm size, intensity, speed of motion and other factors Intensity Change, warm/cold ocean eddy boundaries and differing TC-ocean interaction in those regions- likely a function of storm size, intensity, speed of motion and other factors ITOP/TCS10 promises to advance our understanding of ocean forcing and TC response through a further advance in observational technology- combining airborne, moored, ship- based and AUV platforms

22. Operational CONCLUSIONS As COUPLED TC prediction models are implemented, improved initial TC ocean profile data will become as important as initial atmospheric dropsonde data both in the environment ahead of the TC and within the TC. A prototype system for AXBT and other profiler deployment and real-time processing is now available for operational testing as resources become available.

23. END